Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes

The mechanical description of the seismic cycle has an energetic analogy in terms of statistical physics and the second law of thermodynamics. In this context, an earthquake can be considered a phase transition, where continuous reorganization of stresses and forces reflects an evolution from equilibrium to non-equilibrium states, and we can use this analogy to characterize the earthquake hazard of a region. In this study, we used 8 years (2007–2014) of high-quality Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) seismic data for &gt; 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state of a seismically active region. We confirmed increasing H reflects the irreversible transition of a system and is linked to the occurrence of large earthquakes. Using variation in H, we could detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake, the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake, and the 2010 and 2011 Calama earthquakes (Mw 6.6 and 6.8, respectively). Moreover, we identified possible periodic seismic behaviour between 80 and 160 km depth.</p

Characterization and Engineering Properties of Dry and Ponded Class-F Fly Ash

Characterization studies conducted on Class-F fly-ash specimens gathered from different producers in the southeastern United States confirm general trends reported for fly ash worldwide. Additional tests and detailed analyses explain the spread in specific gravity (interparticle porosity cenospheres), highlight the tendency to segregation and layering, and show marked ferromagnetism. Furthermore, data show that early diagenetic cementation—within days after wetting—hinders densification and produces a fabric that is prone to collapse. New procedures are specifically developed to diagnose and characterize early diagenesis, including (1) pH measurements as an indicator of diagenetic potential, (2) test protocols to assess early diagenesis using oedometer tests and shear-wave velocity, and (3) procedures to determine realizable unit weights as reference values for the analyses of contractive or dilative tendencies and instability. In the absence of early diagenetic cementation, dilative fly-ash behavior is expected in the upper ≈20  m under monotonic shear loading. Flow instability may follow the failure of the containment structure if the ponded ash is saturated and has experienced hindered densification

LONGITUD DEL CANAL CERVICAL UTERINO COMO FACTOR DE RIESGO DE PARTO PREMATURO EN PACIENTES SINTOMÁTICAS

International audienc

Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models

SPACA3gene variants in a New Zealand cohort of infertile and fertile couples

SPRASA (also referred to as SLLP1) is a protein identified in the acrosome of human sperm and encoded by the gene SPACA3. SPRASA is associated with sperm-oocyte recognition and binding, and may play a role in fertility. In order to determine whether variants in the SPACA3 gene are associated with human infertility, we undertook a genetic analysis of 102 infertile and 104 fertile couples. Three gene variants were identified using PCR-based DNA sequencing; 1) an insertion of TGC within a quadruple tri-nucleotide (TGC) repeat region in the 5’ untranslated region (UTR) (g.–22TGC(4_5), 2) a guanine to adenosine transition at position 239 (c.239G> A) resulting in a non-synonymous amino acid substitution from cysteine to tyrosine (p.C80Y) at position 80 in the putative transmembrane region, and 3) a novel nucleotide variant (c.691G> C) located in the 3’UTR. A functional effect of the g.–22TGC (4_5) was confirmed by a luciferase expression assay, while the effects of the variants c.239G> A and c.691G> C were predicted using in silico analysis. Although the frequencies of these variants were not significantly different between the infertile and fertile populations, we present evidence that the variants could affect the expression levels or function of SPRASA, thereby affecting a couple's fertility. Larger populations, especially individuals/couples with unexplained infertility, need to be screened for these variants to validate a relationship with fertility

Undecidability in number theory

These lecture notes cover classical undecidability results in number theory, Hilbert's 10th problem and recent developments around it, also for rings other than the integers. It also contains a sketch of the authors result that the integers are universally definable in the rationals.Comment: 48 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1011.342

Characterization and Engineering Properties of Dry and Ponded Class-F Fly Ash

Characterization studies conducted on Class-F fly-ash specimens gathered from different producers in the southeastern United States confirm general trends reported for fly ash worldwide. Additional tests and detailed analyses explain the spread in specific gravity (interparticle porosity cenospheres), highlight the tendency to segregation and layering, and show marked ferromagnetism. Furthermore, data show that early diagenetic cementation—within days after wetting—hinders densification and produces a fabric that is prone to collapse. New procedures are specifically developed to diagnose and characterize early diagenesis, including (1) pH measurements as an indicator of diagenetic potential, (2) test protocols to assess early diagenesis using oedometer tests and shear-wave velocity, and (3) procedures to determine realizable unit weights as reference values for the analyses of contractive or dilative tendencies and instability. In the absence of early diagenetic cementation, dilative fly-ash behavior is expected in the upper ≈20  m under monotonic shear loading. Flow instability may follow the failure of the containment structure if the ponded ash is saturated and has experienced hindered densification