The future of shale

Master's Project (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2016This project examines the various drivers that led to the U.S. shale oil revolution in order to predict its place in the energy industry going forward and to analyze its effects on Alaska. The shale boom flooded the market with oil causing a dramatic decrease in crude oil prices in late 2014. With this price drop threatening to send Alaska into an economic recession, the future of shale should be of primary concern to all Alaskans as well as other entities that rely heavily on oil revenue. The primary driver leading to the shale revolution is technology. Advances in hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling, and 3D seismic mapping made producing shale oil and gas possible for the first time. New technologies like rotary steerable systems and measurements while drilling continue to make shale production more efficient, and technology will likely continue to improve. Infrastructure helps to explain why the shale revolution was mostly an American phenomenon. Many countries with shale formations have political infrastructure too unstable to risk shale investment. Capital infrastructure is a primary strength of the U.S. and also helps to explain why shale development didn't find its way up to Alaska despite having political stability. Financial infrastructure allowed oil companies to receive the funding necessary to quickly bring shale to the market. The final driver explored is crude oil prices. High oil prices helped spark the shale revolution, but with the recent price crash, there is uncertainty about its future. With production costs continually falling due to technology improvements and analysts predicting crude oil prices to stabilize above most project breakeven points, the future of shale looks bright.Introduction -- Shale & Alaska North Slope Crude Oil Prices -- Seeds of its own destruction? Technology -- Hydraulic Fracturing -- History of fracking -- Directional drilling -- History of drilling -- Benefits of directional drilling -- 3D seismic mapping -- Creating a shockwave -- Recording the data -- Interpreting the results -- The birth of a revolution -- Current/future developments -- Rotary steerable system -- Measurements while drilling -- Future developments. Infrastructure -- Political risk -- Financial markets -- Over investment -- Capital infrastructure. Crude prices -- The price crash -- Breakeven prices -- Future prices -- Alaska -- Conclusion -- Bibliography

Automatic routing module

Automatic Routing Module (ARM) is a tool to partially automate Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) routing. For any accessible launch point or target pair, ARM creates flyable routes that, within the fidelity of the models, are optimal in terms of threat avoidance, clobber avoidance, and adherence to vehicle and planning constraints. Although highly algorithmic, ARM is an expert system. Because of the heuristics applied, ARM generated routes closely resemble manually generated routes in routine cases. In more complex cases, ARM's ability to accumulate and assess threat danger in three dimensions and trade that danger off with the probability of ground clobber results in the safest path around or through difficult areas. The tools available prior to ARM did not provide the planner with enough information or present it in such a way that ensured he would select the safest path

Discrete event simulation tool for analysis of qualitative models of continuous processing systems

An artificial intelligence design and qualitative modeling tool is disclosed for creating computer models and simulating continuous activities, functions, and/or behavior using developed discrete event techniques. Conveniently, the tool is organized in four modules: library design module, model construction module, simulation module, and experimentation and analysis. The library design module supports the building of library knowledge including component classes and elements pertinent to a particular domain of continuous activities, functions, and behavior being modeled. The continuous behavior is defined discretely with respect to invocation statements, effect statements, and time delays. The functionality of the components is defined in terms of variable cluster instances, independent processes, and modes, further defined in terms of mode transition processes and mode dependent processes. Model construction utilizes the hierarchy of libraries and connects them with appropriate relations. The simulation executes a specialized initialization routine and executes events in a manner that includes selective inherency of characteristics through a time and event schema until the event queue in the simulator is emptied. The experimentation and analysis module supports analysis through the generation of appropriate log files and graphics developments and includes the ability of log file comparisons

Development and application of operational techniques for the inventory and monitoring of resources and uses for the Texas coastal zone. Volume 2: Appendices

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Spectroscopy and level detuning of few-electron spin states in parallel InAs quantum dots

We use tunneling spectroscopy to study the evolution of few-electron spin states in parallel InAs nanowire double quantum dots (QDs) as a function of level detuning and applied magnetic field. Compared to the much more studied serial configuration, parallel coupling of the QDs to source and drain greatly expands the probing range of excited state transport. Owing to a strong confinement, we can here isolate transport involving only the very first interacting single QD orbital pair. For the (2,0)-(1,1) charge transition, with relevance for spin-based qubits, we investigate the excited (1,1) triplet, and hybridization of the (2,0) and (1,1) singlets. An applied magnetic field splits the (1,1) triplet, and due to spin-orbit induced mixing with the (2,0) singlet, we clearly resolve transport through all triplet states near the avoided singlet-triplet crossings. Transport calculations, based on a simple model with one orbital on each QD, fully replicate the experimental data. Finally, we observe an expected mirrored symmetry between the 1-2 and 2-3 electron transitions resulting from the two-fold spin degeneracy of the orbitals.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figure

Symmetry of anomalous dimension matrices explained

In a previous paper, one of us pointed out that the anomalous dimension matrices for all physical processes that have been calculated to date are complex symmetric, if stated in an orthonormal basis. In this paper we prove this fact and show that it is only true in a subset of all possible orthonormal bases, but that this subset is the natural one to use for physical calculations.Comment: 4 page

Information for Successful Interaction with Autonomous Systems

Interaction in heterogeneous mission operations teams is not well matched to classical models of coordination with autonomous systems. We describe methods of loose coordination and information management in mission operations. We describe an information agent and information management tool suite for managing information from many sources, including autonomous agents. We present an integrated model of levels of complexity of agent and human behavior, which shows types of information processing and points of potential error in agent activities. We discuss the types of information needed for diagnosing problems and planning interactions with an autonomous system. We discuss types of coordination for which designs are needed for autonomous system functions