Demand elasticity representation: methodology and calibration

This paper describes the methodology incorporated within a version of the Brookhaven Energy System Optimization Model (BESOM) to yield first-order approximations of the response of a national energy system, in economic equilibrium, to changes in prices, quantity of fuel available, and changes in the technological structure of the energy-conversion devices - including efficiency changes. The methodology is not intended as a substitute for the comprehensive energy-economic analysis derivable from the BNL Dale Jorgenson Associates suite of models. It is intended as an inexpensive tool for performing firsr-order sensitivity of energy systems around an established energy-economic equilibrium point

Methods of mathematical programming to program planning and R and D strategies

This paper discusses how some methods of mathematical programming might effectively be used to guide R and D planning with respect to total budget; budget distribution between supply and demand technologies; budget distribution among competing technologies; and budget distribution in light of the need to diversify and avoid risk. The discussion is limited to special frameworks such as linear programming, mixed-integer programming, and quadratic programming since they are most characteristic of the state-of-the-art energy-system formulations. Market penetration, the treatment of vintage stock, and the introduction of uncertainty in these modeling frameworks are key features that lend credibility to the well-known techniques applied for technology assessment, cost-benefit analysis, and multi-criteria analysis. 21 references

Probabilistic interpretation of market shares

The focus of this paper is the development of a steady-state (long-term) characterization of the market-allocation process under uncertainty in prices of delivered products. The generic method was developed with a view toward incorporation of the methodology within large-scale energy models such as the LEAP model of the US DOE or the TESOM model of Brookhaven National Laboratory. 19 references, 5 figures

Time-stepped Energy System Optimization Model (TESOM): overview and special features

This paper provides an overview of TESOM, a time-dependent energy integrating model used at Brookhaven National Laboratory for energy systems analysis. Special control theoretic features which act to smooth the intertemporal transitions between time periods are highlighted. These features include a new-market penetration algorithm, an explicit representation of the technological and cost behavior of inherited (vintaged) stock, and the incorporation of risk factors in resource pricing

Coal in transition 1980--2000 demand considerations

The usefulness of the Brookhaven model, TESOM, lies in its exploration of the demand side of the energy system. Sectors where coal may be substituted for other energy forms are identified, and attractive technologies are highlighted. The results of the runs accord well with intuitive expectations. The increasing prices of oil and natural gas usually imply that (a) coal synthetics become increasingly attractive technologies, except in the High Demand and CRUNCH Cases (b) nuclear and hydro-electric generation are preferred technologies, (c) coal steam electric, even with expensive scrubbers, becomes more attractive than oil or gas steam electric by year 1990, (d) fluidized bed combustion for electricity generation is cost effective (with relatively small environmental impacts) when compared to oil, gas and coal steam electric. FBC process steam exhibits similar behavior. In the High Demand and CRUNCH scenarios, technologies such as solar electric, which are usually not chosen on the basis of cost, enter the solution because meeting demands has become extremely difficult. As the allowed coal expansion rate becomes a limiting factor, coal synthetics manufacturing becomes an unattractive alternative. This is due both to the need for coal electric generation to meet high electricity demand levels, and to the inefficiencies in the manufacturing process. Due to preferred allocation of coal to electricity generation or synthetics, direct coal use is reduced, although this is normally a preferred option

A nonlinear complementarity approach for the national energy modeling system

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a large-scale mathematical model that computes equilibrium fuel prices and quantities in the U.S. energy sector. At present, to generate these equilibrium values, NEMS sequentially solves a collection of linear programs and nonlinear equations. The NEMS solution procedure then incorporates the solutions of these linear programs and nonlinear equations in a nonlinear Gauss-Seidel approach. The authors describe how the current version of NEMS can be formulated as a particular nonlinear complementarity problem (NCP), thereby possibly avoiding current convergence problems. In addition, they show that the NCP format is equally valid for a more general form of NEMS. They also describe several promising approaches for solving the NCP form of NEMS based on recent Newton type methods for general NCPs. These approaches share the feature of needing to solve their direction-finding subproblems only approximately. Hence, they can effectively exploit the sparsity inherent in the NEMS NCP

EEMIS data sector correspondence with conceptual database design

The purpose of this report is fivefold: (1) it provides an introduction to database systems and critieria that are important in the selection of a commercial database management system; (2) it demonstrates that the mapping of the EEMIS data sector structure into the conceptual database model is complete and preserves the hierarchies implied by the EEMIS data structure; (3) it describes all fields and associated field lengths; (4) it provides accurate formulae for estimating the computer storage requirements for the conceptual models at the facility level; and (5) it provides the details of the storage requirements for oil refineries, petroleum crude storage facilities, natural gas transmission and distribution facilities, and company description records

Determinacy in network models: a study of structure and correlation

The concept of determinacy measures the consistency of interaction between the operating variables or parameters of a large-scale model. Determinacy is first defined in a general input-output model, and is related to similar concepts in economics and linear programming. It is then applied to a particular network flow model. Special techniques are then developed to detect determinacy in this model and these techniques are applied to two special classes of networks to uncover the high degree of determinacy in models of these classes

Survey Review of Models for Use in Market Penetration Analysis: Utility Sector Focus

The ultimate benefits of federal expenditures in research and development for new technologies are dependent upon the degree of acceptance of these technologies. Market penetration considerations are central to the problem of quantifying the potential benefits. These benefits are inputs to the selection process of projects competing for finite R and D funds. Market penetration is the gradual acceptance of a new commodity or technology. The Office of Coal utilization is concerned with the specialized area of market penetration of new electric power generation technologies for both replacement and new capacity. The common measure of market penetration is the fraction of the market serviced by the challenging technology for each time point considered. The methodologies for estimating market penetration are divided into three generic classes: integrated energy/economy modeling systems, utility capacity expansion models, and technology substitution models. In general, the integrated energy/economy modeling systems have three advantages: they provide internally consistent macro, energy-economy scenarios, they account for the effect of prices on demand by fuel form, and they explicitly capture the effects of population growth and the level and structure of economic activity on energy demand. A variety of deficiencies appear in most energy-economy systems models. All of the methodologies may be applied at some level to questions of market penetration of new technologies in the utility sector; choice of methods for a particular analysis must be conditioned by the scope of the analysis, data availability, and the relative cost of alternative analysis