The impact of stochastic physics on climate sensitivity in EC-Earth

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the 'stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies' scheme (SPPT) in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10% under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback, and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's non-linear interaction with condensation.Comment: Under review in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere

Lipschitz shadowing implies structural stability

We show that the Lipschitz shadowing property of a diffeomorphism is equivalent to structural stability. As a corollary, we show that an expansive diffeomorphism having the Lipschitz shadowing property is Anosov.Comment: 11 page

An Experimental Study of Auctions Versus Grandfathering to Assign Pollution Permits

We experimentally study auctions versus grandfathering in the initial assignment of pollution permits that can be traded in a secondary spot market. Low and high emitters compete for permits in the auction, while permits are assigned for free under grandfathering. In theory, trading in the spot market should erase inefficiencies due to initial mis-allocations. In the experiment, high emitters exercise market power in the spot market and permit holdings under grandfathering remain skewed towards high emitters. Furthermore, the opportunity costs of “free” permits are fully “passed through.” In the auction, the majority of permits are won by low emitters, reducing the need for spot-market trading. Auctions generate higher consumer surplus and slightly lower product prices in the laboratory arkets. Moreover, auctions eliminate the large “windfall profits” that are observed in the treatment with free, grandfathered permit allocations.market-based regulation, emissions trading, allocation, auctions, grandfathering, climate policy, windfall profits

Determining fPAR and leaf area index of several land cover classes in the Pot River and Tsitsa River catchments of the Eastern Cape, South Africa

Determining the quantum (both annual maxima and minima) and the temporal variation in the leaf area index (LAI), and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR), are three fundamental biophysical characteristics of the plant canopy that should parameterise ecophysiological models of water use (evapotranspiration) and carbon sequestration. Although Earth observation provides values and time series for both these parameters, in-field validation of these values is necessary. Following a very wet summer season, we conducted field surveys of several land cover classes within two quaternary catchments in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa, to determine maximum values of LAI and fPAR that occur within each of these land cover classes. To assist in up-scaling these point measures to the landscape, we present a regression relationship between Landsat 8 NDVI and LAI measured using an Accupar Ceptometer (r2 = 0.92). Peak wet season LAI varied from extremely high (>7.0) under the canopy of invasive black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) trees to ~2.0 under the canopy of a Eucalyptus plantation. Ungrazed native grassland displayed an intermediate LAI value of 3.84. The black wattle stand absorbed 97% of the available PAR, whereas the mature Eucalyptus plantation only absorbed 66% of PAR.Keywords: agroforestry, ecosystem ecology, remote sensin

Exploring the invasion of rangelands by Acacia mearnsii (black wattle): biophysical characteristics and management implications

Australian acacias have spread to many parts of the world. In South Africa, species such as A. mearnsii and A. dealbata are invasive. Consequently, more effort has focused on their clearing. In a context of increasing clearing costs, it is crucial to develop innovative ways of managing invasions. Our aim was to understand the biophysical properties of A. mearnsii in grasslands as they relate to grass production and to explore management implications. Aboveground biomass (AGB) of A. mearnsii was determined using a published allometric equation in invaded grasslands of the northern Eastern Cape, South Africa. The relationships among the A. mearnsii leaf area index (LAI), normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and AGB were investigated. The influence of A. mearnsii LAI and terrain slope on grass cover was also investigated. Strong linear relationships between NDVI, LAI and AGB were developed. Acacia mearnsii canopy adversely impacted grass production more than terrain slope (p < 0.05) and when LAI approached 2.1, grass cover dropped to below 10% in infested areas. Reducing A. mearnsii canopy could promote grass production while encouraging carbon sequestration. Given the high AGB and clearing costs, it may be prudent to adopt the ‘novel ecosystems’ approach in managing infested landscapes.Keywords: grassland, invasive plants, landscape ecology, rangeland conditio

Mapping isoprene emissions over North America using formaldehyde column observations from space

We present a methodology for deriving emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) using space-based column observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) and apply it to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument over North America during July 1996. The HCHO column is related to local VOC emissions, with a spatial smearing that increases with the VOC lifetime. Isoprene is the dominant HCHO precursor over North America in summer, and its lifetime (≃1 hour) is sufficiently short that the smearing can be neglected. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) to derive the relationship between isoprene emissions and HCHO columns over North America and use these relationships to convert the GOME HCHO columns to isoprene emissions. We also use the GEOS-CHEM model as an intermediary to validate the GOME HCHO column measurements by comparison with in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM model including the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) isoprene emission inventory provides a good simulation of both the GOME data (r2 = 0.69, n = 756, bias = +11%) and the in situ summertime HCHO measurements over North America (r2 = 0.47, n = 10, bias = −3%). The GOME observations show high values over regions of known high isoprene emissions and a day-to-day variability that is consistent with the temperature dependence of isoprene emission. Isoprene emissions inferred from the GOME data are 20% less than GEIA on average over North America and twice those from the U.S. EPA Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS2) inventory. The GOME isoprene inventory when implemented in the GEOS-CHEM model provides a better simulation of the HCHO in situ measurements than either GEIA or BEIS2 (r2 = 0.71, n = 10, bias = −10%)