Wikipedia and Digital Currencies: Interplay Between Collective Attention and Market Performance

The production and consumption of information about Bitcoin and other digital-, or 'crypto'-, currencies have grown together with their market capitalisation. However, a systematic investigation of the relationship between online attention and market dynamics, across multiple digital currencies, is still lacking. Here, we quantify the interplay between the attention towards digital currencies in Wikipedia and their market performance. We consider the entire edit history of currency-related pages, and their view history from July 2015. First, we quantify the evolution of the cryptocurrency presence in Wikipedia by analysing the editorial activity and the network of co-edited pages. We find that a small community of tightly connected editors is responsible for most of the production of information about cryptocurrencies in Wikipedia. Then, we show that a simple trading strategy informed by Wikipedia views performs better, in terms of returns on investment, than classic baseline strategies for most of the covered period. Our results contribute to the recent literature on the interplay between online information and investment markets, and we anticipate it will be of interest for researchers as well as investors

Quantifying and modelling online decentralised systems: a complex systems approach

Cryptocurrencies are unique examples of decentralised socioeconomic systems. All the transactions, trading, and development are traceable and publicly available. Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, was introduced in 2009 launching a market of more than 2500 cryptocurrencies and has a value of more than 200 billion dollars. In comparison to the rising importance of cryptocurrencies in the financial world, the research on cryptocurrencies is still limited. In this thesis, we analyse three novel datasets namely, cryptocurrencies’ market data, cryptocurrencies’ Wikipedia page views and edits, and illicit transactions on Bitcoin. We study the cryptocurrencies ecosystem, including the market dynamics, the social attention and the transaction network. We find that the ecological neutral model can capture the market dynamics, hinting at the extent to which technological differences between cryptocurrencies are considered in investment decisions. We also investigate the relationship between information production and consumption and cryptocurrency market dynamics. We find that a small community of tightly connected editors is responsible for most of the production of information about cryptocurrencies in Wikipedia. Finally, we assess dark markets’ Bitcoin transactions showing the ability of the markets to adapt to multiple closures, including law enforcement raids. We expect that our contribution will be of interest to researchers working on either cryptocurrencies or complex systems. We anticipate that adopting a complex systems approach, will spark more research that interweaves both the technological and socioeconomic aspect of cryptocurrencies

Collective Dynamics of Dark Web Marketplaces

Dark markets are commercial websites that use Bitcoin to sell or broker transactions involving drugs, weapons, and other illicit goods. Being illegal, they do not offer any user protection, and several police raids and scams have caused large losses to both customers and vendors over the past years. However, this uncertainty has not prevented a steady growth of the dark market phenomenon and a proliferation of new markets. The origin of this resilience have remained unclear so far, also due to the difficulty of identifying relevant Bitcoin transaction data. Here, we investigate how the dark market ecosystem re-organises following the disappearance of a market, due to factors including raids and scams. To do so, we analyse 24 episodes of unexpected market closure through a novel datasets of 133 million Bitcoin transactions involving 31 dark markets and their users, totalling 4 billion USD. We show that coordinated user migration from the closed market to coexisting markets guarantees overall systemic resilience beyond the intrinsic fragility of individual markets. The migration is swift, efficient and common to all market closures. We find that migrants are on average more active users in comparison to non-migrants and move preferentially towards the coexisting market with the highest trading volume. Our findings shed light on the resilience of the dark market ecosystem and we anticipate that they may inform future research on the self-organisation of emerging online markets

Machine Learning the Cryptocurrency Market

Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for $1,681$ cryptocurrencies for the period between Nov. 2015 and Apr. 2018. We show that simple trading strategies assisted by state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms outperform standard benchmarks. Our results show that non-trivial, but ultimately simple, algorithmic mechanisms can help anticipate the short-term evolution of the cryptocurrency market

Emergence and structure of decentralised trade networks around dark web marketplaces

Dark web marketplaces (DWMs) are online platforms that facilitate illicit trade among millions of users generating billions of dollars in annual revenue. Recently, two interview-based studies have suggested that DWMs may also promote the emergence of direct user-to-user (U2U) trading relationships. Here, we carefully investigate and quantify the scale of U2U trading around DWMs by analysing 31 million Bitcoin transactions among users of 40 DWMs between June 2011 and Jan 2021. We find that half of the DWM users trade through U2U pairs generating a total trading volume greater than DWMs themselves. We then show that hundreds of thousands of DWM users form stable trading pairs that are persistent over time. Users in such stable pairs turn out to be the ones with the largest trading volume on DWMs. Then, we show that new U2U pairs often form while both users are active on the same DWM, suggesting the marketplace may serve as a catalyst for new direct trading relationships. Finally, we reveal that stable U2U pairs tend to survive DWM closures and that they were not affected by COVID-19, indicating that their trading activity is resilient to external shocks. Our work unveils sophisticated patterns of trade emerging in the dark web and highlights the importance of investigating user behaviour beyond the immediate buyer-seller network on a single marketplace

Macroscopic properties of buyer–seller networks in online marketplaces

Online marketplaces are the main engines of legal and illegal e-commerce, yet their empirical properties are poorly understood due to the absence of large-scale data. We analyze two comprehensive datasets containing 245M transactions (16B USD) that took place on online marketplaces between 2010 and 2021, covering 28 dark web marketplaces, i.e. unregulated markets whose main currency is Bitcoin, and 144 product markets of one popular regulated e-commerce platform. We show that transactions in online marketplaces exhibit strikingly similar patterns despite significant differences in language, lifetimes, products, regulation, and technology. Specifically, we find remarkable regularities in the distributions of transaction amounts, number of transactions, interevent times, and time between first and last transactions. We show that buyer behavior is affected by the memory of past interactions and use this insight to propose a model of network formation reproducing our main empirical observations. Our findings have implications for understanding market power on online marketplaces as well as intermarketplace competition, and provide empirical foundation for theoretical economic models of online marketplaces

Identifying key players in dark web marketplaces through Bitcoin transaction networks

Dark web marketplaces have been a significant outlet for illicit trade, serving millions of users worldwide for over a decade. However, not all users are the same. This paper aims to identify the key players in Bitcoin transaction networks linked to dark markets and assess their role by analysing a dataset of 40 million Bitcoin transactions involving the 31 major markets in the period 2011–2021. First, we propose an algorithm that categorizes users either as buyers or sellers, and show that a large fraction of the trading volume is concentrated in a small group of elite market participants. We find that the dominance of markets is reflected in trading properties of buyers and sellers. Then, we investigate both market star-graphs and user-to-user networks, and highlight the importance of a new class of users, namely ‘multihomers’, who operate on multiple marketplaces concurrently. Specifically, we show how the networks of multihomers and seller-to-seller interactions can shed light on the resilience of the dark market ecosystem against external shocks. Our findings suggest that understanding the behavior of key players in dark web marketplaces is critical to effectively disrupting illegal activities

Inferring short-term volatility indicators from Bitcoin blockchain

In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin transaction volume

Burnout among surgeons before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an international survey

Background: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had many significant impacts within the surgical realm, and surgeons have been obligated to reconsider almost every aspect of daily clinical practice. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study reported in compliance with the CHERRIES guidelines and conducted through an online platform from June 14th to July 15th, 2020. The primary outcome was the burden of burnout during the pandemic indicated by the validated Shirom-Melamed Burnout Measure. Results: Nine hundred fifty-four surgeons completed the survey. The median length of practice was 10 years; 78.2% included were male with a median age of 37 years old, 39.5% were consultants, 68.9% were general surgeons, and 55.7% were affiliated with an academic institution. Overall, there was a significant increase in the mean burnout score during the pandemic; longer years of practice and older age were significantly associated with less burnout. There were significant reductions in the median number of outpatient visits, operated cases, on-call hours, emergency visits, and research work, so, 48.2% of respondents felt that the training resources were insufficient. The majority (81.3%) of respondents reported that their hospitals were included in the management of COVID-19, 66.5% felt their roles had been minimized; 41% were asked to assist in non-surgical medical practices, and 37.6% of respondents were included in COVID-19 management. Conclusions: There was a significant burnout among trainees. Almost all aspects of clinical and research activities were affected with a significant reduction in the volume of research, outpatient clinic visits, surgical procedures, on-call hours, and emergency cases hindering the training. Trial registration: The study was registered on clicaltrials.gov "NCT04433286" on 16/06/2020

Recent Advances in Protective Vaccines against Hepatitis Viruses: A Narrative Review

Vaccination has been confirmed to be the safest and, sometimes, the only tool of defense against threats from infectious diseases. The successful history of vaccination is evident in the control of serious viral infections, such as smallpox and polio. Viruses that infect human livers are known as hepatitis viruses and are classified into five major types from A to E, alphabetically. Although infection with hepatitis A virus (HAV) is known to be self-resolving after rest and symptomatic treatment, there were 7134 deaths from HAV worldwide in 2016. In 2019, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) resulted in an estimated 820,000 and 290,000 deaths, respectively. Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is a satellite virus that depends on HBV for producing its infectious particles in order to spread. The combination of HDV and HBV infection is considered the most severe form of chronic viral hepatitis. Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is another orally transmitted virus, common in low- and middle-income countries. In 2015, it caused 44,000 deaths worldwide. Safe and effective vaccines are already available to prevent hepatitis A and B. Here, we review the recent advances in protective vaccines against the five major hepatitis viruses