Inference from large sets of radiocarbon dates: Software and methods

ABSTRACTThe last decade has seen the development of a range of new statistical and computational techniques for analysing large collections of radiocarbon (14C) dates, often but not exclusively to make inferences about human population change in the past. Here we introduce rcarbon, an open-source software package for the R statistical computing language which implements many of these techniques and looks to foster transparent future study of their strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we review the key assumptions, limitations and potentials behind statistical analyses of summed probability distribution of 14C dates, including Monte-Carlo simulation-based tests, permutation tests, and spatial analyses. Supplementary material provides a fully reproducible analysis with further details not covered in the main paper.ER

Modifiable reporting unit problems and time series of long-term human activity.

This paper responds to a resurgence of interest in constructing long-term time proxies of human activity, especially but not limited to models of population change over the Pleistocene and/or Holocene. While very much agreeing with the need for this increased attention, we emphasize three important issues that can all be thought of as modifiable reporting unit problems: the impact of (i) archaeological periodization, (ii) uneven event durations and (iii) geographical nucleation-dispersal phenomena. Drawing inspiration from real-world examples from prehistoric Britain, Greece and Japan, we explore their consequences and possible mitigation via a reproducible set of tactical simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.ERC Stg Grant (ENCOUNTER Project - 801953

Revealing patterns of cultural transmission from frequency data: equilibrium and non-equilibrium assumptions

A long tradition of cultural evolutionary studies has developed a rich repertoire of mathematical models of social learning. Early studies have laid the foundation of more recent endeavours to infer patterns of cultural transmission from observed frequencies of a variety of cultural data, from decorative motifs on potsherds to baby names and musical preferences. While this wide range of applications provides an opportunity for the development of generalisable analytical workflows, archaeological data present new questions and challenges that require further methodological and theoretical discussion. Here we examine the decorative motifs of Neolithic pottery from an archaeological assemblage in Western Germany, and argue that the widely used (and relatively undiscussed) assumption that observed frequencies are the result of a system in equilibrium conditions is unwarranted, and can lead to incorrect conclusions. We analyse our data with a simulation-based inferential framework that can overcome some of the intrinsic limitations in archaeological data, as well as handle both equilibrium conditions and instances where the mode of cultural transmission is time-variant. Results suggest that none of the models examined can produce the observed pattern under equilibrium conditions, and suggest. instead temporal shifts in the patterns of cultural transmission.The authors acknowledge the use of the UCL Legion High Performance Computing Facility (Legion@UCL), and associated support services, in the completion of this work. This work was financially supported by the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research and by an European Research Council Advanced Grant, project #249390(EUROEVOL, Cultural Evolution of Neolithic Europe)

Neuromuscular electrical stimulation restores upper limb sensory-motor functions and body representations in chronic stroke survivors

Background: A conventional treatment outcome is suboptimal for sensory impairments in stroke patients. Novel approaches based on electrical stimulation or robotics are proposed as an adjuvant for rehabilitation, though their efficacy for motor, sensory, and body representation recovery have not been tested. Methods: Sixty chronic stroke patients with unilateral motor deficits were included in a pseudo-randomized open-label multi-arm control trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03349138). We tested the effects of a robotic glove (GloReha [GR]) and a new neuromuscular electrical stimulation system (Helping Hand [HH]) and compared them with conventional treatment (CT) in restoring motor and sensory functions and the affected limb perception. HH was designed to concurrently deliver peripheral motor activation and enhanced cutaneous sensation. Patients were split in four dose-matched groups: CT, GR, HH, and GRHH (receiving 50% GR and 50% HH). Assessments were performed at inclusion, halfway, end of treatment (week 9), and follow-up (week 13). Findings: HH provided an earlier benefit, quantified by the Motricity Index (MI), than GR. At the end of the treatment, the amelioration was higher in groups GRHH and HH and extended to somatosensory functions. These benefits persisted at the follow-up. GRHH and HH also improved the perceived dimensions and altered feeling toward the affected limb. Interestingly, the reduction of altered feelings correlated with MI improvements and depended on the amount of HH. Conclusions: We suggest that HH concurrently stimulates sensory and motor systems by generating an enhanced cutaneous sensation, coherent in location with the elicited motor recruitment, leading to ameliorated sensorimotor functions and bodily perceptions in stroke patients. Funding: This work was supported by a Foundation advised by CARIGEST, by Fondazione CARIPLO, by the SNSF NCCR Robotics, and by the Bertarelli Foundation

Spatio-temporal approaches to archaeological radiocarbon dates

Summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates are an increasingly popular means by which to reconstruct prehistoric population dynamics, enabling more thorough cross-regional comparison and more robust hypothesis testing, for example with regard to the impact of climate change on past human demography. Here we review another use of such summed distributions – to make spatially explicit inferences about geographic variation in prehistoric populations. We argue that most of the methods proposed so far have been strongly biased by spatially varying sampling intensity, and we therefore propose a spatial permutation test that is robust to such forms of bias and able to detect both positive and negative local deviations from pan-regional rates of change in radiocarbon date density. We test our method both on some simple, simulated population trajectories and also on a large real-world dataset, and show that we can draw useful conclusions about spatio-temporal variation in population across Neolithic Europe

A probabilistic framework for assessing spatio-temporal point patterns in the archaeological record

The assessment of spatial patterns in archaeology is hampered by a number of constraints, one of the most serious of which is the intrinsic temporal uncertainty associated with most of the archaeological record. Different types of chronological definition or different degrees of temporal knowledge will suggest different kinds of spatial pattern, ultimately obscuring and restricting our interpretation of the background process, especially in cases where we are seeking a diachronic perspective. This paper addresses these problems by adopting both a probabilistic approach and a more standardised framework for diachronic analysis. First, we define the notion of temporal uncertainty and explore its analytical consequences. Second, we consider two methods by which it might be formally quantified, emphasising (a) the advantages of probability-weighted spatial analysis and (b) the comparison of alternative spatio-temporal patterns via Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, we apply these methods to a case study that considers the distribution of Middle to Late Jomon (ca.5000-3000 BP) pithouses recorded in the Chiba New Town area of Japan (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserve

Interpretation and the Constraints on International Courts

This paper argues that methodologies of interpretation do not do what they promise – they do not constrain interpretation by providing neutral steps that one can follow in finding out a meaning of a text – but nevertheless do their constraining work by being part of what can be described as the legal practice