Decisions, options, and actions in the face of uncertainty: a systematic bibliometric and thematic review of climate adaptation pathways

Climate change is already having adverse impacts, with place- and problem-based implications due to higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. Despite uncertainty about the full extent of future change, adaptation will be required. Adaptation pathways (APs) planning is increasingly used as a methodological approach to identify, evaluate, and sequence adaptation options over time. Pathways link critical decisions to future conditions, providing a road map to support planning in the face of uncertainty. This systematic review identifies and assesses the rapidly growing APs literature, focusing on its definition, and application in diverse contexts. Using bibliometric and thematic analysis, we highlight scholarly networks driving innovation in this area, characterise theoretical and conceptual differences in framing, and derive insights for best practice. Results show the evolution in interpretation, framing and practice; from an initial focus on managing uncertainty with technological- and engineered-based approaches, through to more participatory, policy- and decision-relevant pathways. Pathways planning has become increasingly collaborative, and is now used to address climate adaptation outcomes, within the broader context of interacting and compounding stressors. Results also highlight challenges in conceptualising and operationalizing APs, including comprehensive accounting for costs, and navigating social dynamics involved in process development. Based on these findings we propose new avenues for research, to develop methodologies to better engage with stakeholders’ social, political, and economic concerns, and enhance learning for climate adapted futures

Adaptive and interactive climate futures: systematic review of 'serious games' for engagement and decision-making

Climate change is already having adverse impacts on ecosystems, communities and economic activities through higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. However, a gap remains between public understanding, scientific knowledge about climate change, and changes in behaviour to effect adaptation. 'Serious games' - games used for purposes other than entertainment - are one way to reduce this adaptation deficit by enhancing opportunities for social learning and enabling positive action. Games can provide communities with the opportunity to interactively explore different climate futures, build capability and capacity for dealing with complex challenges, and socialise adaptation priorities with diverse publics. Using systematic review methods, this paper identifies, reviews, synthesises and assesses the literature on serious games for climate change adaptation. To determine where and how impact is achieved, we draw on an evaluation framework grounded in social learning, to assess which combinations of cognitive (knowledge and thinking), normative (norms and approaches) and relational (how people connect and network building) learning are achieved. Results show that factors influencing the overall success in influencing behaviour and catalysing learning for adaptation include generating high levels of inter- and intra- level trust between researchers, practitioners and community participants; strong debriefing and evaluation practices; and the use of experienced and knowledgeable facilitators. These results can help inform future game design, and research methodologies to develop robust ways for engaging with stakeholders and end users, and enhance learning effects for resilient climate futures

Tools for adaptive governance for complex social-ecological systems: A review of role-playing-games as serious games at the community-policy interface

The management of natural resources—from forests to fisheries to freshwater—is becoming increasingly complex and requires new tools and processes for engaging with individuals, communities, and decision-makers. Policy makers and practitioners have begun using serious games (SGs) (those used for purposes other than entertainment) to overcome some of the complex challenges of governing resources in social-ecological systems. This paper uses a systematic literature review methodology to assess role-playing SGs for natural resource management. Fifty-two articles from the role-playing game (RPG) subset of SGs are identified, synthesised and analysed using a multi-criteria evaluation framework. First, we explore three theoretical and conceptual elements of games: principles of RPGs, functions of games, and (practical) game characteristics. We evaluate game elements, including game design, adherence to reality and the degree to which games integrate elements of participatory—and action research. These dimensions of RPGs are then analysed and discussed. Particular attention is paid to the value and application of RPGs to address complex problems with interacting environmental, social, cultural and economic challenges, and the extent to which they can inform adaptive governance solutions. Results show that RPGs can be a valuable tool at different levels; however, we also identify important gaps in the current state of knowledge, in particular, related to bridging community—and higher-level decision-making scales through RPGs

The social side of agroecological systems: farmers' adaptation capacity

The impacts and implications of climate change are increasingly evidenced by gradual rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and the potential for more frequent and extreme, even sequential and cascading events (Raymond et al., 2020). These changes are projected to adversely affect agroecological systems and their contribution to food security, water management, and ecosystem functioning and provisioning through reduced tolerance of these systems to biotic and abiotic stresses (Twecan et al., 2022; Semeraro et al., 2023). Evidence of these impacts are documented by science, but are also socially perceived through individual and collective perspectives (Azeem and Alhafi-Alotaibi, 2023). Individuals socially construct risk and determine how to deal with it (Tiet et al., 2022). Although risk awareness is considered necessary in the first stages of the adaptation process to reduce risk exposure (Akano et al., 2022), weather variability can make it difficult to detect long-term trends, leading to divergent perceptions of climate change (Ricart et al., 2023). Furthermore, observations are spaced over time and individual and collective experiences of past events can be faulty or uncertain (Song et al., 2021). For example, concern about climate change can vary due to perception of scale: local problems often seem more urgent; while recent effects, and the occurrence of extreme meteorological events, can rapidly increase risk perception (Savari et al., 2023)

Adaptation knowledge for New Zealand’s primary industries: Known, not known and needed

Climate sensitive primary industries including pastoral farming, high-value horticulture and viticulture are central to Aotearoa-New Zealand’s economy. While advances have been made in understanding the impacts and implications of climate change critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly for adaptation. This study develops and applies a novel methodology to identify and characterise adaptation knowledge for primary industries. The basis for the review is ten years’ of research and action under the Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change (SLMACC) program, supplemented with a systematic review of the published literature. Reports (n = 32) and literature (n = 22) are reviewed and assessed using the Adaptation Knowledge Cycle to characterise analytical and empirical foci. The detailed assessment of knowledge for Impacts, Implications, Decisions or Actions enables a robust and rigorous assessment of existing knowledge, identifies critical research gaps and emerging needs. Results show research to date has focused almost exclusively on understanding the impact of climate variability and extremes on land management. There are significant empirical (e.g. location and sector) and methodological (e.g. integrated assessments, scenarios, and vulnerability assessment) gaps, for at risk regions and sectors, and limited understanding of the decisions and actions necessary to enable successful adaptation. To inform future adaptation planning, additional work is required to better understand the implications, decision-making processes and obstacles to action. More detailed understanding of location-, season-, time- and sector-specific responses to climate change is also necessary. Findings advance our understanding of adaptation knowledge and reflect on diversity of information necessary to enable and sustain resilient rural futures and provide a conceptual and methodological basis for similar assessments elsewhere

Validity of a practitioner-administered observational tool to measure physical activity, nutrition, and screen time in school-age programs

Background: Nutrition and physical activity interventions have been effective in creating environmental changes in afterschool programs. However, accurate assessment can be time-consuming and expensive as initiatives are scaled up for optimal population impact. This study aims to determine the criterion validity of a simple, low-cost, practitioner-administered observational measure of afterschool physical activity, nutrition, and screen time practices and child behaviors. Methods: Directors from 35 programs in three cities completed the Out-of-School Nutrition and Physical Activity Observational Practice Assessment Tool (OSNAP-OPAT) on five days. Trained observers recorded snacks served and obtained accelerometer data each day during the same week. Observations of physical activity participation and snack consumption were conducted on two days. Correlations were calculated to validate weekly average estimates from OSNAP-OPAT compared to criterion measures. Weekly criterion averages are based on 175 meals served, snack consumption of 528 children, and physical activity levels of 356 children. Results: OSNAP-OPAT validly assessed serving water (r = 0.73), fruits and vegetables (r = 0.84), juice >4oz (r = 0.56), and grains (r = 0.60) at snack; sugary drinks (r = 0.70) and foods (r = 0.68) from outside the program; and children’s water consumption (r = 0.56) (all p <0.05). Reports of physical activity time offered were correlated with accelerometer estimates (minutes of moderate and vigorous physical activity r = 0.59, p = 0.02; vigorous physical activity r = 0.63, p = 0.01). The reported proportion of children participating in moderate and vigorous physical activity was correlated with observations (r = 0.48, p = 0.03), as were reports of computer (r = 0.85) and TV/movie (r = 0.68) time compared to direct observations (both p < 0.01). Conclusions: OSNAP-OPAT can assist researchers and practitioners in validly assessing nutrition and physical activity environments and behaviors in afterschool settings. Trial registration Phase 1 of this measure validation was conducted during a study registered at clinicaltrials.gov NCT01396473. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12966-014-0145-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Menus in Child Care: A Comparison of State Regulations with National Standards

The purpose of this project was to compare individual state regulations regarding menus for child-care centers and family child-care homes with national menu standards. For all 50 states and the District of Columbia, state regulations were compared with menu standards found in Caring for Our Children—National Health and Safety Performance Standards: Guidelines for Out-of-Home Child Care Programs. Specifically, these guidelines suggest that (a) menus must be posted or made available to parents, (b) menus must be dated, (c) menus must reflect food served, (d) menus must be planned in advance, and (e) menus must be kept on file. One additional standard, that menus in child care are reviewed by a nutrition professional, was added to this review. Data were collected between June and August of 2007. Substantial variation existed among state regulations regarding menus. For child-care centers, seven states (14%) included regulations on all five standards, and 13 states (25%) had regulations on four of the five menu standards. Ten states (20%) did not have any regulations on the five menu standards. For family child-care homes, only three states (6%) had regulations on all five menu standards; four states (8%) had regulations on four of the five menu standards. Twenty-seven states (53%) did not have any regulations on the five standards for menus. Within the same state, regulations for child-care centers and family child-care homes often did not match. Overall, great discrepancies were found between model child-care menu policies and current state regulations in most states. States have the opportunity to improve regulations regarding menus to ensure that child-care providers develop accurate, specific, and healthful menus

State and Regional Variation in Regulations Related to Feeding Infants in Child Care

The purpose of this study was to compare state and regional variation in infant feeding regulations for child care facilities and to compare these regulations to national standards