Non-normality and recursive unit root test for PPP: Solving the PPP puzzle?

In this paper we carry out unit root tests on real exchange rates recursively as in Caporale et al (2003), but, following Arghyrou and Gregoriou (2007), we adjust the residuals for non-normality using a wild bootstrap method. The results are striking: the correction for non-normality dramatically increases the rejection percentages of the unit root null, and attenuates the erratic behaviour of the t-statistic, thus providing strong evidence in favour of PPP, and suggesting that such a correction might at least go some way towards solving the “PPP puzzle”

Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityThis paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period suggests that euro-denominated government yields are strongly linked with each other. However, financial markets seem to be able to discriminate among different issuers. Consequently, fiscal imbalances in Italy and in other peripheral countries should be closely monitored by their EMU partners and the European institutions

The euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union

In this paper, we investigate empirically the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. We estimate a time-varying parameter model with a GARCH specification for the conditional volatility of inflation in order to distinguish between short-run (structural and impulse) and steady-state uncertainty. We then introduce a dummy variable to model the policy regime shift which occurred in 1999 with the introduction of the Euro, and its effects on the links between inflation and inflation uncertainty. We find that steady-state inflation has generally remained stable (with the important exception of Germany, where the trend has become positive), steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty has broken down in many countries. These findings cast doubt on the optimistic view taken by the ECB concerning its success in controlling inflation, and suggest the need for improvements in its analytical framework

Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityThis paper proposes new metrics for the process of price discovery on the main electronic trading platform for euro-denominated government securities. Analysing price data on daily transactions for 107 bonds over a period of twenty-seven months, we find a greater degree of price leadership of the dominant market when our measures (as opposed to the traditional price discovery metrics) are used. We also present unambiguous evidence that a market’s contribution to price discovery is crucially affected by the level of trading activity. The implications of these empirical findings are discussed in the light of the debate about the possible restructuring of the regulatory framework for the Treasury bond market in Europe

Price formation on the EuroMTS platform

This paper examines the process of price discovery in the MTS system, which builds on the parallel quoting of euro-denominated government securities on a number of (relatively large) domestic markets and on a (relatively small) European marketplace EuroMTS). Using twenty-seven months of daily data for 107 pairs of bonds, we present unambiguous evidence that trades on EuroMTS have a sizeable informational conten

History of San Marco

A brief history is reported of the first San Marco project, a joint program of the United States and Italy. The Project was a three phase effort to investigate upper air density and associated ionosphere phenomena. The initial phase included the design and development of the spacecraft, the experiments, the launch complex, and a series of suborbital flights, from Wallops Island. The second phase, consisting of designing, fabricating, and testing a spacecraft for the first orbital mission, culminated in an orbital launch also from Wallops Island. The third phase consisted of further refining the experiments and spacecraft instrumentation and of establishing a full-bore scout complex in Kenya. The launch of San Marco B, in April 1967, from this complex into an equatorial orbit, concluded the initial San Marco effort

Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed

Financial contagion: Evolutionary optimisation of a multinational agent-based model

Over the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during a crisis are referred to as financial contagion. We simulate crisis transmission in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although the phenomenon has been extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise cross-market linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable in developing appropriate risk management strategies

Quoted spreads and trade imbalance dynamics in the European treasury bond market

Using high-frequency transaction data for the three largest European markets (France, Germany and Italy), this paper documents the existence of an asymmetric relationship between market liquidity and trading imbalances: when quoted spreads rise (fall) and liquidity falls (increases) buy (sell) rders tend to prevail. Risk-averse market-makers, with inventory-depletion risk being their main concern, tend to quote wider narrower) spreads when they think bond appreciation is more (less) likely to occur. It is also found that the probability of being in a specific regime is related to observable bond market characteristics, tock market volatility, macroeconomic releases and liquidity management operations of the monetary authorities

A mixed-game agent-based model of financial contagion

Over the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during financial crises are referred to as financial contagion. We simulate the transmission of financial crises in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although contagion has been extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied yet through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise cross-market linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable to develop appropriate risk management strategies