Bibliography of research using the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has conducted and published a quarterly survey of business opinion continuously, and with largely unchanged questions, since June 1961. The Institute’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is a business tendency survey based substantially on the Business Test of the IFO Munich. It covers the manufacturing, building, merchant and service sectors and architects. This bibliography lists and classifies some 80 research papers which used QSBO data and published between 1964 and 2011

Anticoagulant resistance in the UK and a new guideline for the management of resistant infestations of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.)

Buckle, A

High field magneto-transport in high mobility gated InSb/InAlSb quantum well heterostructures

We present high field magneto-transport data from a range of 30nm wide InSb/InAlSb quantum wells. The low temperature carrier mobility of the samples studied ranged from 18.4 to 39.5 m2V-1s-1 with carrier densities between 1.5x1015 and 3.28x1015 m-2. Room temperature mobilities are reported in excess of 6 m2V-1s-1. It is found that the Landau level broadening decreases with carrier density and beating patterns are observed in the magnetoresistance with non-zero node amplitudes in samples with the narrowest broadening despite the presence of a large g-factor. The beating is attributed to Rashba splitting phenomenon and Rashba coupling parameters are extracted from the difference in spin populations for a range of samples and gate biases. The influence of Landau level broadening and spin-dependent scattering rates on the observation of beating in the Shubnikov-de Haas oscillations is investigated by simulations of the magnetoconductance. Data with non-zero beat node amplitudes are accompanied by asymmetric peaks in the Fourier transform, which are successfully reproduced by introducing a spin-dependent broadening in the simulations. It is found that the low-energy (majority) spin up state suffers more scattering than the high-energy (minority) spin down state and that the absence of beating patterns in the majority of (lower density) samples can be attributed to the same effect when the magnitude of the level broadening is large

The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/ inflation variance trade-off. The model includes a forward- looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy and the impact of monetary policy is evaluated by deriving a monetary policy index using a procedure suggested by Dungey and Pagan (2000). Monetary policy has generally been counter-cyclical, thereby reducing business cycles and inflation variability. Exceptions are in 1993 when monetary policy accentuated the business cycle upswing and in 1998 when monetary policy accentuated the recession, although its impact in 1998 was small relative to the impact of adverse climatic conditions. During the initial years of inflation targeting monetary policy tended to simultaneously reduce inflation and output variability. From 1996 to 2001 monetary policy was less effective in reducing inflation and output variability. This latter period included a brief experiment with a Monetary Conditions Index, the Asian crisis and a large adverse domestic climate shock.Monetary policy; inflation targeting, business cycles; open economy; structural VAR models; inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, climate; international linkages

Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data

This paper fits hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm. The models are fitted to New Zealand GDP and production sector growth rates to analyse changes in their mean and volatility over time. The paper discusses applications of the methodology to identifying changes in growth performances, and examines the timing of growth and volatility regime switching between production sectors. Conclusions to emerge are that, in contrast to the 1980s, New Zealand GDP growth experienced an unusually long period of time in high growth and low volatility regimes during the 1990s. The paper evaluates sector contributions to this 1990s experience and discusses directions for further development.Hidden Markov models; regime switching; growth; business cycles; volatility; production sectors; GDP.

A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets

The Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994 states that, as a principle of responsible fiscal management, a New Zealand government should ensure total Crown debt is at a prudent level by ensuring total operating expenses do not exceed total operating revenues. In this paper a structural VAR model is estimated to evaluate the impact on the government's cash operating surplus (or budget balance) of four independent disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand, and nominal disturbances. Based on the distribution of these disturbances, stochastic simulations are undertaken to derive the level of the ex ante cash budget balance needed to achieve an actual cash budget balance, at a given level of probability, at some future time horizon.Budget target; Fiscal policy; Fiscal Responsibility Act; Structural VAR; Stochastic Simulation

Control of nonenzymatic browning in intermediate-moisture foods

Series of compounds called humectants were found to decrease rate of browning when added to intermediate-moisture foods. Twenty percent level of humectant can increase shelf life of foods by factor of 5 or 6

Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline

The variance of New Zealand’s real GDP has declined since the mid-1980s. To investigate why, this paper decomposes the variance of chain-weighted estimates of production-based real GDP growth into sector shares, sector growth rate variances and co-variances. The principal explanation for the decline in GDP volatility is a fall in the sum of sector variances driven by a decline in the Services and Manufacturing sector production growth variances. Sector co-variances have had a dominant influence on the profile of GDP volatility and this influence has not diminished. Despite marked changes in sector shares, notably increases in Services and Primary sector shares and a decrease in the share of Manufacturing, this has not been a significant factor influencing the decline in GDP volatility. We postulate that policy interventions such as “Think Big”, regulatory interventions during the early 1980s, and the introduction of GST are key explanations for the higher volatility until the mid 1980s. Cessation of these interventions, deregulation and possibly changes in inventory management methods are important reasons why GDP volatility has fallen since then.Volatility, growth, production sector shares, manufacturing, services, primary, construction.

New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach

New Zealand's Current Account of the Balance of Payments has been persistently in deficit since the early 1970s and increased markedly during the late 1990s. Is this a cause for significant concern? This paper tackles this question by evaluating New Zealand's external solvency, the degree of optimality of the intertemporal consumption smoothing through its current account, and whether its international financial capital flows have been used in an optimal (consumption-smoothing) fashion. We carry out statistical tests in relation to external solvency. We also estimate a "benchmark" consumption-smoothing component for its current account based on an intertemporal optimisation model in order to carry out tests of the optimality of the size and volatility of the current account. We could not reject the hypotheses that New Zealand's current account was consistent with optimal smoothing, that the external solvency condition has been satisfied, and that there is "no excess volatility" in international financial capital flows.current account; intertemporal; consumption-smoothing; New Zealand

Asia-Pacific growth Robert A. Buckle: before and after the Global Financial Crisis

The modern era of globalisation has been associated with significant economic transformation around the world, but also an increasing frequency of financial crises. According to Eichengreen and Bordo (2002) there were 39 national or international financial crises between 1945 and 1973. Their frequency increased to 139 between 1973 and 1997, culminating in the Asian financial crisis. These crises occurred predominantly, but not exclusively, in emerging economies