Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project.

Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe.Using data from the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, sex-specific models estimating 10 year risk of stroke were developed using a Cox regression model stratified by country and including modelling of competing risks. Models were developed in a stepwise manner first using only data from questionnaires, and then adding data from physical examinations and finally data from blood samples.During 1,176,296 years of observation, 2928 incident fatal and non-fatal events of stroke were registered. The developed model showed good calibration and accuracy of prediction. The discrimination of the model varied between sex and country but increased with increasing number of variables used (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.77 and 0.79 in men and between 0.75 and 0.80 in women).The present study shows that using a large multicountry cohort from nine European countries it is possible to develop a stepwise risk estimation model for 10 year risk of stroke tailored to different availability of risk factors and still obtain valid measures of risk even in the simplest form of the model, with increasing performance of the model following increasing complexity. The methods chosen which separate this model from previous models (competing risk and stepwise approach) should be considered for future risk estimation models

Studies of Metabolic Phenotypic Correlates of 15 Obesity Associated Gene Variants

Genome-wide association studies have identified novel BMI/obesity associated susceptibility loci. The purpose of this study is to determine associations with overweight, obesity, morbid obesity and/or general adiposity in a Danish population. Moreover, we want to investigate if these loci associate with type 2 diabetes and to elucidate potential underlying metabolic mechanisms.15 gene variants in 14 loci including TMEM18 (rs7561317), SH2B1 (rs7498665), KCTD15 (rs29941), NEGR1 (rs2568958), ETV5 (rs7647305), BDNF (rs4923461, rs925946), SEC16B (rs10913469), FAIM2 (rs7138803), GNPDA2 (rs10938397), MTCH2 (rs10838738), BAT2 (rs2260000), NPC1 (rs1805081), MAF (rs1424233), and PTER (rs10508503) were genotyped in 18,014 middle-aged Danes.Five of the 15 gene variants associated with overweight, obesity and/or morbid obesity. Per allele ORs ranged from 1.15-1.20 for overweight, 1.10-1.25 for obesity, and 1.41-1.46 for morbid obesity. Five of the 15 variants moreover associated with increased measures of adiposity. BDNF rs4923461 displayed a borderline BMI-dependent protective effect on type 2 diabetes (0.87 (0.78-0.96, p = 0.008)), whereas SH2B1 rs7498665 associated with nominally BMI-independent increased risk of type 2 diabetes (1.16 (1.07-1.27, p = 7.8×10(-4))).Associations with overweight and/or obesity and measures of obesity were confirmed for seven out of the 15 gene variants. The obesity risk allele of BDNF rs4923461 protected against type 2 diabetes, which could suggest neuronal and peripheral distinctive ways of actions for the protein. SH2B1 rs7498665 associated with type 2 diabetes independently of BMI

Genetic Variant SCL2A2 Is Associated with Risk of Cardiovascular Disease - Assessing the Individual and Cumulative Effect of 46 Type 2 Diabetes Related Genetic Variants

To assess the individual and combined effect of 46 type 2 diabetes related risk alleles on incidence of a composite CVD endpoint.Data from the first Danish MONICA study (N = 3523) and the Inter99 study (N = 6049) was used. Using Cox proportional hazard regression the individual effect of each risk allele on incident CVD was analyzed. Risk was presented as hazard ratios (HR) per risk allele.During 80,859 person years 1441 incident cases of CVD (fatal and non-fatal) occurred in the MONICA study. In Inter99 942 incident cases were observed during 61,239 person years. In the Danish MONICA study four gene variants were significantly associated with incident CVD independently of known diabetes status at baseline; SLC2A2 rs11920090 (HR 1.147, 95% CI 1.027-1.283 , P = 0.0154), C2CD4A rs7172432 (1.112, 1.027-1.205 , P = 0.0089), GCKR rs780094 (1.094, 1.007-1.188 , P = 0.0335) and C2CD4B rs11071657 (1.092, 1.007-1.183 , P = 0.0323). The genetic score was significantly associated with increased risk of CVD (1.025, 1.010-1.041, P = 0.0016). In Inter99 two gene variants were associated with risk of CVD independently of diabetes; SLC2A2 (HR 1.180, 95% CI 1.038-1.341 P = 0.0116) and FTO (0.909, 0.827-0.998, P = 0.0463). Analysing the two populations together we found SLC2A2 rs11920090 (HR 1.164, 95% CI 1.070-1.267, P = 0.0004) meeting the Bonferroni corrected threshold for significance. GCKR rs780094 (1.076, 1.010-1.146, P = 0.0229), C2CD4B rs11071657 (1.067, 1.003-1.135, P = 0.0385) and NOTCH2 rs10923931 (1.104 (1.001 ; 1.217 , P = 0.0481) were found associated with CVD without meeting the corrected threshold. The genetic score was significantly associated with increased risk of CVD (1.018, 1.006-1.031, P = 0.0043).This study showed that out of the 46 genetic variants examined only the minor risk allele of SLC2A2 rs11920090 was significantly (P = 0.0005) associated with a composite endpoint of incident CVD below the threshold for statistical significance corrected for multiple testing. This potential pathway needs further exploration

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Risk Prediction in Educational Classes across European Regions, in the MORGAM Project Populations

Aims: Although socioeconomic status is a recognized independent risk factor for CVD mortality, the recommended European risk prediction equation for primary prevention does not consider it; an approach criticized by previous results in the UK and US. We aim to assess whether the SCORE project equation adequately estimates the risk in different educational classes, across several European populations. Methods: We considered 47 prospective population-based surveys from Nordic Countries (Finland, Denmark, Sweden), UK (Belfast and Scotland), Central Europe (France, Germany and Italy) and East Europe (Lithuania, Poland) and Russia. Baseline data collection and mortality follow-up (median time 10 years) adhered to standardized MONICA-like procedures. Three educational classes were derived from population-, sex- and birth year-specific tertiles of years of schooling. The individual SCORE risk was computed from age, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking; the risk was recalibrated to the average observed risk in each population. We estimated age- and traditional risk factors-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for 10 year CVD mortality (highest education as the reference), from Cox models. Moreover, the observed number of fatal CVD events by educational class was compared to the expected number, as estimated by the recalibrated SCORE function. Results: The cohorts summed-up 39,215 men and 29,240 women 40 to 64 years old and free from CVD event at baseline. Education was associated with CVD mortality in men (pooled age-adjusted HR for low vs high education: 1.6, 95% CI 1.4\u20131.9); the hazard ratios ranged from 1.3 (95%CI: 0.9\u20131.8) in Central Europe to 2.1 (1.6\u20132.7) in East Europe and Russia. The association attenuated after adjustment for SCORE risk factors and HDL-cholesterol. Among women, the association was significant in Nordic Countries only (age-adjusted HR for low vas high education: 1.7, 95% CI 1.1\u20132.6), but it was no more significant after adjustment for multiple risk factors. The original SCORE equation overestimated the risk at a population level, both in men and in women, except in East Europe and Russia. After recalibration, the SCORE equation overestimated the risk among the more educated men by 20% to 50% (in Central Europe, East Europe and Russia, respectively), but underestimated it in the less educated men by 7% to 23% (in Central Europe, East Europe and Russia, respectively). Conclusions: Our results, based on a well-harmonized study comprising several European populations, suggest the need to include country-specific socioeconomic status in the risk estimation equations

The contribution of educational class in improving accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction across European regions: The MORGAM Project Cohort Component.

Objective To assess whether educational class, an index of socioeconomic position, improves the accuracy of the SCORE cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. Methods In a pooled analysis of 68 455 40-64-year-old men and women, free from coronary heart disease at baseline, from 47 prospective population-based cohorts from Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, Sweden), the UK (Northern Ireland, Scotland), Central Europe (France, Germany, Italy) and Eastern Europe (Lithuania, Poland) and Russia, we assessed improvements in discrimination and in risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI)) when education was added to models including the SCORE risk equation. Results The lowest educational class was associated with higher CVD mortality in men (pooled age-adjusted HR=1.64, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.90) and women (HR=1.31, 1.02 to 1.68). In men, the HRs ranged from 1.3 (Central Europe) to 2.1 (Eastern Europe and Russia). After adjustment for the SCORE risk, the association remained statistically significant overall, in the UK and Eastern Europe and Russia. Education significantly improved discrimination in all European regions and classification in Nordic countries (clinical NRI=5.3%) and in Eastern Europe and Russia (NRI=24.7%). In women, after SCORE risk adjustment, the association was not statistically significant, but the reduced number of deaths plays a major role, and the addition of education led to improvements in discrimination and classification in the Nordic countries only. Conclusions We recommend the inclusion of education in SCORE CVD risk equation in men, particularly in Nordic and East European countries, to improve social equity in primary prevention. Weaker evidence for women warrants the need for further investigations

Repeated measures of body mass index and C-reactive protein in relation to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single ‘baseline’ measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (=25–<30 kg/m2) or moderately obese (=30–<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (=18.5–<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58–0.82) and 0.78 (0.63–0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79–0.94) and 0.80 (0.72–0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76–1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62–1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht