An analysis of drought in Italy in the last fifty years

In this paper the authors present a study of drought occurrence over Italy. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis precipitation rates covering the period from 1948 to 2000 were used to assess drought over the area in question. The analysis is based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which has been proposed asan indicator of drought occurrence. The index relieson the knowledge of the precipitation field only, therefore, it may be readily computed from the data. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the resulting fields reveals a downward trend for the index over the area considered. It implies that drought conditions have been in the recent past more frequent and extended, within the region, over larger areas. Moreover, the temporal behaviours of the principal component scores show few long-term periodicities

The qualitative assessment of responsiveness to environmental challenge in horses and ponies.

The responsiveness of 10 horses and 10 ponies to environmental challenge (represented by an open field test) was assessed using a qualitative approach based on free choice profiling methodology (FCP), which gives observers complete freedom to choose their own descriptive terms. Data were analysed with generalised Procrustes analysis (GPA), a multivariate statistical technique associated with FCP. A cross-validation of the outcomes of this approach to data recorded through quantitative behaviour analysis, and through a questionnaire given to the animals’ owner/riding instructor, was also performed using principal component analysis (PCA). Twelve undergraduate students generated their own descriptive vocabularies, by watching 20 horse/pony video clips lasting 2.5 min each. GPA showed that the consensus profile explained a high percentage of variation among the 12 observers, and differed significantly from the mean randomised profile ( p < 0.001). Two main dimensions of the consensus profile were identified, explaining 60% and 5.2% of the variation between animals, respectively. The 12 observer word charts interpreting these dimensions were semantically consistent, as they all converged towards the same meaning, albeit using different terms. The most used term to describe the positive end of axis 1 was ‘‘quiet’’, whereas ‘‘attentive’’ was the best positive descriptor of axis 2. The most frequently used descriptors for the negative ends of axes 1 and 2 were ‘‘nervous’’ and ‘‘bored’’, respectively. Thus, axis 1 was labelled as ‘‘quiet/nervous’’ and axis 2 was named as ‘‘attentive/bored’’. A marked effect of animal category was observed on the scores of the animals on the first dimension ( p < 0.001). Horses received significantly higher scores, and were thus assessed as more quiet and calm, than ponies. Conversely, ponies tended to receive lower scores on the second dimension ( p < 0.12), therefore they appeared less curious and attentive. The results of the PCA showed that the variables from different types of measurement clearly had meaningful relationships. For instance, the variables with the highest loading on the positive end of axis 1 were all indicative of tractable and docile animals, whereas axis 2 showed high loadings on the positive end for variables indicating attentive animals. Qualitative behaviour assessment proved to be an appropriate methodology for the study of horse behavioural responsiveness, in that it provided a multifaceted characterisation of horse behavioural expression that was in agreement with other quantitative and subjective assessments of the animals’ behaviour

Long-term physical evolution of an elastomeric ultrasound contrast microbubble

Hypothesis: One of the main assets of crosslinked polymer-shelled microbubbles (MBs) as ultrasound-active theranostic agents is the robustness of the shells, combined with the chemical versatility in modifying the surface with ligands and/or drugs. Despite the long shelf-life, subtle modifications occur in the MB shells involving shifts in acoustic, mechanical and structural properties. Experiments: We carried out a long-term morphological and acoustic evolution analysis on elastomeric polyvinyl-alcohol (PVA)-shelled MBs, a novel platform accomplishing good acoustic and surface performances in one agent. Confocal laser scanning microscopy, acoustic spectroscopy and AFM nanomechanics were integrated to understand the mechanism of PVA MBs ageing. The changes in the MB acoustic properties were framed in terms of shell thickness and viscoelasticity using a linearised oscillation theory, and compared to MB morphology and to nanomechanical analysis. Findings: We enlightened a novel, intriguing ageing time evolution of the PVA MBs with double behaviour with respect to a crossover time of ∼50 days. Before, significant changes occur in MB stiffness and shell thickness, mainly due to a massive release of entangled PVA chains. Then, the MB resonance frequency increases together with shell thickening and softening. Our benchmark study is of general interest for emerging viscoelastomeric bubbles towards personalised medicine

Multiple jets observed in the summer Northern Hemisphere troposphere

Daily observations of the Northern Hemisphere zonal mean zonal wind during July show an intermittent formation of multiple tropospheric jet streams. In particular, a tropospheric westerly, or easterly, jet occurs at latitudes greater than 75◦N: it co-exists with the mid-latitude jet and is characterized by variability on synoptic time scale. Two sample years are here considered, July 1996 and July 1985, when prevailing westerly and easterly jets occur at high latitudes, respectively. Analysis is consistent with a picture where the physical mechanism, which creates and maintains the polar jet in the summer troposphere, is the baroclinic instability process acting on a westerly, or easterly, background zonal flow. Due to the synoptic variability, monthly mean maps of the zonal mean zonal wind for July may show different jet patterns as a function of the year, depending on the occurrences (number and duration) of westerly or easterly polar jets within each month considered. The study of the inter-annual variability of the zonal mean zonal wind through the principal component analysis indicates, in fact, that three tropospheric jet stream patterns can be distinguished. Consistency of observations with the available theories on the double-jet formation is provided and the impact of polar jet occurrences on surface temperature field is evaluated

Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update

Abstract. Linear and nonlinear trends of drought and wetness are analysed in terms of the gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) determined from monthly precipitation in Europe (NCEP/NCAR). In characterizing the meteorological and hydrological aspects, the index is computed on a seasonal and on a bi-annual time scale. Two datasets are compared: one from 1949 to 1997 and the other one includes the update of the last decade (to February 2009). The following results are noted: (i) time series of drought and wetness area coverage (number of grid points above/below the severity threshold) show a remarkable linear trend until about the end of the last century, which is reversed in the last (update) decade. This recent trend reversal is an indication of a nonlinear trend, which is more pronounced on the hydrological time scale. (ii) A nonlinear trend analysis is performed based on the time series of the principal component (PC) associated to the first spatial SPI-eigenvector after embedding it in a time delay coordinate system using a sliding window of 70 months (singular spectrum analysis). Nonlinearity appears as a clear feature on the hydrological time scale. (iii) The first spatial EOF-patterns of the shorter and the longer (updated) SPI time series fields show similar structure. An inspection of the SPI time behaviour at selected grid points illustrates the spatial variability of the detected trends

Multiple jets observed in the summer Northern Hemisphere troposphere

Daily observations of the Northern Hemisphere zonal mean zonal wind during July show an intermittent formation of multiple tropospheric jet streams. In particular, a tropospheric westerly, or easterly, jet occurs at latitudes greater than 75◦N: it co-exists with the mid-latitude jet and is characterized by variability on synoptic time scale. Two sample years are here considered, July 1996 and July 1985, when prevailing westerly and easterly jets occur at high latitudes, respectively. Analysis is consistent with a picture where the physical mechanism, which creates and maintains the polar jet in the summer troposphere, is the baroclinic instability process acting on a westerly, or easterly, background zonal flow. Due to the synoptic variability, monthly mean maps of the zonal mean zonal wind for July may show different jet patterns as a function of the year, depending on the occurrences (number and duration) of westerly or easterly polar jets within each month considered. The study of the inter-annual variability of the zonal mean zonal wind through the principal component analysis indicates, in fact, that three tropospheric jet stream patterns can be distinguished. Consistency of observations with the available theories on the double-jet formation is provided and the impact of polar jet occurrences on surface temperature field is evaluated

MicroRNA-551b expression profile in low and high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the expression of microRNA (miR)-551b in patients with low and high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and to find an association with high-risk Human Papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection-related prognostic biomarkers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The expression level of miR-551b was determined in 50 paraffin-embedded cervical specimens (10 normal squamous epithelium, 18 condylomas, 8 CIN1, and 14 CIN2-3) using quantitative Real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). χ2-test compared miR-551b expression in different diagnosis groups. An Ordered Logistic Regression and a Probit correlation were made to correlate miR-551b expression levels with the cervical tissue histological findings. The immunohistochemical distribution of p16 and Ki-67 according to histopathological findings was also assessed. RESULTS: The distribution of the miR-551b expression profile was significantly lower in CIN1-3 samples compared to other histological diagnosis groups (condyloma and negative). The expression levels were inversely correlated to the cervical pathological grade, from negative to CIN2-3. A 1% increase in miR-551b expression level produced an increase of 19% to the probability of a minor histological grade diagnosis in a range from negative to CIN2-3 and an increase of 13% to the probability of a negative histological grade diagnosis. Among the cases with miR-551b expression < 0.02 (considered as cut-off value) a significant statistical correlation was found between p16 and Ki-67 expression and the diagnosis of CIN2-3. CONCLUSIONS: O ur d ata s howed a s ignificant inverse correlation between miR-551b expression and the histological grading of the lesions, suggesting a tumor suppressive function in the different stages of cervical dysplasia

Noise in multiple sclerosis: unwanted and necessary

As our knowledge about the etiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) increases, deterministic paradigms appear insufficient to describe the pathogenesis of the disease, and the impression is that stochastic phenomena (i.e. random events not necessarily resulting in disease in all individuals) may contribute to the development of MS. However, sources and mechanisms of stochastic behavior have not been investigated and there is no proposed framework to incorporate nondeterministic processes into disease biology. In this report, we will first describe analogies between physics of nonlinear systems and cell biology, showing how small-scale random perturbations can impact on large-scale phenomena, including cell function. We will then review growing and solid evidence showing that stochastic gene expression (or gene expression “noise”) can be a driver of phenotypic variation. Moreover, we will describe new methods that open unprecedented opportunities for the study of such phenomena in patients and the impact of this information on our understanding of MS course and therapy

On non-linear baroclinic adjustment with the stratosphere

The effect of the stratosphere on the baroclinic adjustment of a nonlinear Eady model is presented. The classical linear Eady model has been modified by including an additional layer (the stratosphere), Ekman dissipation at the bottom boundary and a Newtonian cooling at the surface and the tropopause, respectively; non-linearity is introduced by wave-mean flow interaction for a single eddy mode. Results for the rigid-lid case and for small troposphere/stratosphere stratification ratio are compared with those for the linear Eady model with Ekman dissipation at the surface. For these cases model solutions consist of a steady zonal correction and an eddy field with a travelling constant amplitude wave. The equilibrated field, as a function of small stratification ratio, shows that the minimum amplitude of the eddy component raises to a height close to the tropopause (its steering level), denoting that the wave solution becomes vertical evanescent. When realistic values for the static stability in the stratosphere are considered, the zonal correction is no more time independent and reveals a degree of chaotic behaviour, while the eddy field is fully chaotic. Effects of changes in the zonal wind vertical shear and a further decreasing static stability in the stratosphere are also analysed. Results suggest that the minimum amplitude is, in average, higher than the one computed for the classical rigid lid with Ekman dissipation at the surface. Thus, as in the linear Eady model, the stratosphere induces a stabilising effect on the baroclinic dynamics. Finally, the model solutions are compared with the time behaviour of a simplified General Circulation Model

Sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing to changes of microphysical parameters measured by the CLOUDS mission

CLOUDS (a Cloud and Radiation monitoring satellite) is a study for a satellite mission designed to provide the gross vertical profile, the internal structure, the radiative and the imaging features of clouds. This subject is addressed by several missions designed for process study intent. CLOUDS, instead, is designed for providing data of routine use in long-term NumericalWeather Prediction (NWP) and General Circulation Model (GCM). User requirements have been collected from various sources, and instruments concepts derived to meet those requirements. However, to establish the sensitivity of a GCM to the targeted parameters and confirm the soundness of the specified requirements (mainly accuracy and vertical resolution), special effort had to be placed. The present paper offers a rather complete assessment of the range of usefulness that CLOUDS measurements may have on the radiative calculation. To this purpose, the cloud forcing was computed as a function of cloud parameters by using a radiative model that has been applied in the GCM of the Laboratory for Atmospheres at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The results show that, in most cases, the model response to the addressed cloud parameters is good if the error is within the specified limit. This is better demonstrated for relatively large particle sizes, for ice better than for liquid water, for low optical thickness and for low cloud cover. The model, however, suggests that more stringent requirements would be appropriate when small particles are considered