Changing measurements or changing movements? Sampling scale and movement model identifiability across generations of biologging technology

Animal movement patterns contribute to our understanding of variation in breeding success and survival of individuals, and the implications for population dynamics. Over time, sensor technology for measuring movement patterns has improved. Although older technologies may be rendered obsolete, the existing data are still valuable, especially if new and old data can be compared to test whether a behavior has changed over time. We used simulated data to assess the ability to quantify and correctly identify patterns of seabird flight lengths under observational regimes used in successive generations of wet/dry logging technology. Care must be taken when comparing data collected at differing timescales, even when using inference procedures that incorporate the observational process, as model selection and parameter estimation may be biased. In practice, comparisons may only be valid when degrading all data to match the lowest resolution in a set. Changes in tracking technology, such as the wet/dry loggers explored here, that lead to aggregation of measurements at different temporal scales make comparisons challenging. We therefore urge ecologists to use synthetic data to assess whether accurate parameter estimation is possible for models comparing disparate data sets before planning experiments and conducting analyses such as responses to environmental changes or the assessment of management actions

Drivers of octopus abundance and density in an anchialine lake: a 30 year comparison

Anchialine systems are isolated from the sea and often support species’ populations distinct from their marine counterparts. Sweetings Pond, an anchialine lake on the island of Eleuthera in The Bahamas was identified as a site of high Caribbean reef octopus, Octopus briareus (Robson, 1929) density, relative to coastal populations. However, observed deterioration in local benthic habitat and increased anthropogenic influence over the last 30 years imply that this octopus population may have undergone density and distribution shifts in response to these changing conditions. Here, we assess the system wide octopus density to provide an updated estimate. We hypothesize that despite depressed habitat availability in the 1980s, it will now support octopus densities less than historical estimates because of increasing human impact on the system. Drivers of abundance were also modelled, testing ecological hypotheses of the relationship between octopus count and prey, habitat coverage, and human disturbance. Octopus briareus were found in 7 of 27 of surveys with a mean survey count of 0.630 ± 1.25 per 900 m2. Octopus density did not vary significantly between sites. Octopus count was predicted to increase with increasing cover of calcareous rubble and the density of a preferred prey species, and intriguingly, counts decreased as a function of natural den abundance. System wide octopus density was comparable to earlier studies from the 1980s (1982 = 717.38 per km2; 1983 = 282.59 per km2; 2019 = 643.81 per km2) with no significant difference between years. Given the ecosystem’s unique and closed ecological community and the population dynamics and distribution drivers we present, Sweetings Pond has the potential to act as a ‘natural laboratory’ to explore further questions about marine insular systems and their influence on species populations in terms of ecological and behavioural change

An experimental assessment of social tolerance and den ecology in a high-density octopus population

Long held notions of the universally asocial octopus are being challenged due to the identification of high-density and interacting octopus populations in Australia, Indonesia, Japan and the deep sea. This study experimentally assessed the social tolerance and presence of potential prey items of Caribbean reef octopus, Octopus briareus, in a tropical marine lake (25°21′40″N, 76°30′40″W) on the island of Eleuthera, The Bahamas, by deploying artificial dens in multi-den groups or ‘units’ in the months of May and June 2019. Fifteen octopus were observed occupying dens (n = 100), resulting in 13 den units being occupied (n = 40). Two examples of adjacent occupation within a single den unit were identified but with zero examples of cohabitation/den sharing. Ecological models showed den and den unit occupation was predicted to increase with depth and differ between sites. Octopus also displayed no preference for isolated or communal units but preferred isolated dens over dens adjacent to others. Additionally, 47 % of occupied dens contained bivalve or crustacean items with no epifauna on their interior surface. The lack of epifauna suggests that these items have been recently ‘cleaned’ by occupying octopus and so represent likely prey. This study presents evidence of possible antisocial den use by O. briareus, a modification of the default ‘asocial’ ignoring of conspecifics typically attributed to octopus. This is likely in response to the high population density and may imply behavioural plasticity, making this system appropriate for further scrutiny as a research location on the influence of large, insular environments on marine species

Spatial variation in spring arrival patterns of Afro‐Palaearctic bird migration across Europe

Aim: Geographical patterns of migrant species arrival have been little studied, despite their relevance to global change responses. Here, we quantify continent-wide inter-specific variation in spatio-temporal patterns of spring arrival of 30 common migrant bird species and relate these to species characteristics and environmental conditions.Location: EuropeTime period: 2010-2019Major taxa studied: Birds, 30 speciesMethods: Using citizen science data from EuroBirdPortal, we modelled arrival phenology for 30 Afro-Palearctic migrant species across Europe to extract start and duration of species arrival at a 400 km square resolution. We related inter and intra-specific variation in arrival and duration to species characteristics and temperature at the start of the growing season (green-up) .Results: Spatial variation in start of arrival times indicates it took on average 1.6 days for the leading migratory front to move northwards by 100 km (range: 0.6—2.5 days). There was a major gradient in arrival phenology, from species which arrived earlier, least synchronously, in colder temperatures and progressed slowly northwards to species which arrived later, most synchronously and in warmer temperatures, and advanced quickly through Europe. The slow progress of early arrivers suggests that temperature limits their northward advance; this group included Aerial Insectivores and species wintering north of the Sahel. For the late arrivers, which included species wintering further south, seasonal resource availability in Africa may delay their arrival into Europe.Main conclusions: We found support for the green-wave hypothesis applying widely to migratory landbirds. Species arrival phenologies are linked to ecological differences between taxa, such as diet, and wintering location. Understanding these differences informs predictions of species’ sensitivity to global change. Publishing these arrival phenologies will facilitate further research and have additional conservation benefits such as informing designation of hunting seasons. Our methods are applicable to any taxa with repeated occurrence data across large scales. Key words: phenology, European-African migrants, bird migration, spring arrival, spatial variation, intraspecific and interspecific variation, EuroBirdPortal, citizen scientists, complete lists and casual record

Data integration for large-scale models of species distributions

With the expansion in the quantity and types of biodiversity data being collected, there is a need to find ways to combine these different sources to provide cohesive summaries of species’ potential and realized distributions in space and time. Recently, model-based data integration has emerged as a means to achieve this by combining datasets in ways that retain the strengths of each. We describe a flexible approach to data integration using point process models, which provide a convenient way to translate across ecological currencies. We highlight recent examples of large-scale ecological models based on data integration and outline the conceptual and technical challenges and opportunities that arise

Bioclimatic context of species' populations determines community stability

Aim: It is important to understand the factors affecting community stability because ecosystem function is increasingly at risk from biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate how a key factor, the position of local environmental conditions within the thermal range of the species, influences the stability of butterfly communities at a continental scale. Location: Spain, UK and Finland. Time period: 1999–2017. Major taxa studied: Butterflies. Methods: We tested the following hypotheses about how species responses to temperature anomalies aggregate to influence stability: Hypothesis 1, species have contrasting responses to local temperature anomalies at opposing edges of their thermal range; hypothesis 2, communities with central thermal range positions have higher community stability; and the impacts of thermal range position on community stability are driven by hypothesis 3, population asynchrony, or hypothesis 4, additive population stability. Data were analysed at 876 sites for 157 species. Results: We found some support for hypothesis 1, because there were interactions between thermal range and response to temperature anomalies such that species at different range edges could provide weak compensatory dynamics. However, responses were nonlinear, suggesting strong declines with extreme anomalies, particularly at the hot range edge. Hypothesis 2 was supported in part, because community stability increased with central thermal range positions and declined at the edges, after accounting for species richness and community abundance. Thermal range position was weakly correlated with asynchrony (hypothesis 3) and population stability (hypothesis 4), although species richness and population abundance had larger impacts. Main conclusions: Future extreme heat events will be likely to impact species negatively across their thermal range, but might be particularly impactful on populations at the hottest end of the thermal range. Thermal range position influenced community stability because range edge communities were stable. However, the prediction of community stability from thermal range position is challenging because of nonlinear responses to temperature, with small temperature anomalies producing weak compensatory dynamics, but large extreme events synchronizing dynamics

State of nature 2019

State of Nature 2019 presents an overview of how the country’s wildlife is faring, looking back over nearly 50 years of monitoring to see how nature has changed in the UK, its Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories. As well as this long-term view, we focus on what has happened in the last decade, and so whether things are getting better or worse for nature. In addition, we have assessed the pressures that are acting on nature, and the responses being made, collectively, to counter these pressures