Weighing the costs and benefits of climate change to our children

Our efforts to put the brakes on climate change or adapt to a warming climate present a fundamental tradeoff between costs borne today and benefits that accrue to the children and grandchildren of the current generation. In making investments today that affect future generations’ prospects, we need to think carefully about how we value their welfare compared to our own. A common economic formula recommends giving up only 5 cents today for every dollar of benefits 100 years in the future; we call this discounting the future. Underlying this approach is the assumption that future generations will be much better off than our own, just as we are much wealthier than our ancestors were. Would our descendants’ agree with this approach? Are there reasons to put more value on future benefits? William Pizer, Ben Groom, and Simon Dietz discuss three possible reasons that we might put a higher value on future benefits. First, people disagree considerably about the correct discount rate. Other plausible interpretations of society’s preferences or observed data could increase the weight we place on future benefits by as much as a factor of five. Second, we may have failed to correctly value future climate change impacts, particularly those related to the loss of environmental amenities that have no close monetary substitutes. Third, we may not be properly valuing the risk that a warming climate could cause sudden and catastrophic changes that would drastically alter the size of the population. Ultimately, the authors write, many of the choices about how we value future generations’ welfare come down to ethical questions, and many of the decisions we must make come down to societal preferences—all of which will be difficult to extract from data or theory

Computing with and without arbitrary large numbers

In the study of random access machines (RAMs) it has been shown that the availability of an extra input integer, having no special properties other than being sufficiently large, is enough to reduce the computational complexity of some problems. However, this has only been shown so far for specific problems. We provide a characterization of the power of such extra inputs for general problems. To do so, we first correct a classical result by Simon and Szegedy (1992) as well as one by Simon (1981). In the former we show mistakes in the proof and correct these by an entirely new construction, with no great change to the results. In the latter, the original proof direction stands with only minor modifications, but the new results are far stronger than those of Simon (1981). In both cases, the new constructions provide the theoretical tools required to characterize the power of arbitrary large numbers.Comment: 12 pages (main text) + 30 pages (appendices), 1 figure. Extended abstract. The full paper was presented at TAMC 2013. (Reference given is for the paper version, as it appears in the proceedings.

Exactly solvable models through the empty interval method, for more-than-two-site interactions

Single-species reaction-diffusion systems on a one-dimensional lattice are considered, in them more than two neighboring sites interact. Constraints on the interaction rates are obtained, that guarantee the closedness of the time evolution equation for $E_n(t)$'s, the probability that $n$ consecutive sites are empty at time $t$. The general method of solving the time evolution equation is discussed. As an example, a system with next-nearest-neighbor interaction is studied.Comment: 19 pages, LaTeX2

Disturbance, dispersal and marine assemblage structure: A case study from the nearshore Southern Ocean

Disturbance is a key factor in most natural environments and, globally, disturbance regimes are changing, driven by increased anthropogenic influences, including climate change. There is, however, still a lack of understanding about how disturbance interacts with species dispersal capacity to shape marine assemblage structure. We examined the impact of ice scour disturbance history (2009–2016) on the nearshore seafloor in a highly disturbed region of the Western Antarctic Peninsula by contrasting the response of two groups with different dispersal capacities: one consisting of high-dispersal species (mobile with pelagic larvae) and one of low-dispersal species (sessile with benthic larvae). Piecewise Structural Equation Models were constructed to test multi-factorial predictions of the underlying mechanisms, based on hypothesised responses to disturbance for the two groups. At least two or three disturbance factors, acting at different spatial scales, drove assemblage composition. A comparison between both high- and low-dispersal models demonstrated that these mechanisms are dispersal dependent. Disturbance should not be treated as a single metric, but should incorporate remote and direct disturbance events with consideration of taxa-dispersal and disturbance legacy. These modelling approaches can provide insights into how disturbance shapes assemblages in other disturbance regimes, such as fire-prone forests and trawl fisheries

Rapid and Accurate Measurement of Polarization and Fading of Weak VHF Signals Obliquely Reflected from Sporadic-E Layers

In the E-region of the ionosphere, at heights between 90 and 130 km, thin patches of enhanced ionization occur intermittently. The electron density in these sporadic-E (Es) clouds can sometimes be so high that radio waves with frequencies up to 150 MHz are obliquely reflected. While this phenomenon is well known, the reflection mechanism itself is not well understood. To investigate this question, an experimental system has been developed for accurate polarimetric and fading measurements of 50 MHz radio waves obliquely reflected by mid-latitude Es layers. The overall sensitivity of the system is optimized by reducing environmental electromagnetic noise, giving the ability to observe weak, short-lived 50 MHz Es propagation events. The effect of the ground reflection on observed polarization is analyzed and the induced amplitude and phase biases are compensated for. It is found that accurate measurements are only possible below the pseudo-Brewster angle. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the system, initial empirical results are presented which provide clear evidence of magneto-ionic double refraction

Preparation and characterization of electrolytic alumina deposit on austenitic stainless steel

Conversion coating modified by alumina has been studied as a way for improving the resistance to thermal oxidation of an austenitic stainless steel. Conversion coating, characterized by a particular morphology and strong interfacial adhesion with the substrate, facilitate the electrochemical deposition of ceramic layers and enhance their adhesion to the substrate. The influence of the current density and treatment time on alumina deposit was studied using statistical experimental designs like Doehlert uniform shell design. After heating, coatings present a continuous composition gradient with refractory compounds at the surface. The behavior at high temperature (1000 8C) of the alumina coating was investigated. The presence of alumina increases the oxidation resistance of an austenitic stainless steel at 1000 8C. The morphology and the chemical composition of the deposit are analyzed. Results on the thermal stability of coating on austenitic stainless steel are presented

Exactly solvable reaction diffusion models on a Cayley tree

The most general reaction-diffusion model on a Cayley tree with nearest-neighbor interactions is introduced, which can be solved exactly through the empty-interval method. The stationary solutions of such models, as well as their dynamics, are discussed. Concerning the dynamics, the spectrum of the evolution Hamiltonian is found and shown to be discrete, hence there is a finite relaxation time in the evolution of the system towards its stationary state.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure