Finite time ruin probabilities with one Laplace inversion.

In this work we present an explicit formula for the Laplace transform in time of the finite time ruin probabilities of a classical Levy model with phase-type claims. Our result generalizes the ultimate ruin probability formula of Asmussen and Rolski [IME 10 (1991) 259]—see also the analog queuing formula for the stationary waiting time of the M/Ph/1 queue in Neuts [Matrix-geometric Solutions in Stochastic Models: An Algorithmic Approach. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD, 1981]—and it considers the deficit at ruin as wellFinite-time ruin probability; Phase-type distribution; Deficit at ruin; Lundberg’s equation; Laplace transform;

The Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty-reward function under an affine jump-diffusion model.

We provide a unified analytical treatment of first passage problems under an affine state-dependent jump-diffusion model (with drift and volatility depending linearly on the state). Our proposed model, that generalizes several previously studied cases, may be used for example for obtaining probabilities of ruin in the presence of interest rates under the rational investement strategies proposed by Berk & Green (2004)First passage problems; Risk process; Stochastic rates of interest; Ruin with interest; Affine jump-diffusion models; Penalty/reward functions at ruin;

On the valuation ofconstant barrier options under spectrally one-sided exponential L&evy models and Carr’s approximation for American puts.

This paper provides a general framework for pricing options with a constant barrier under spectrally one-sided exponential L&evy model, and uses it to implement ofCarr’s approximation for the value of the American put under this model. Simple analytic approximations for the exercise boundary and option value are obtained. c 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reservedAmerican options; Perpetual approximation; Spectrally negative exponential L&evy process;

Task Feedback Effects on Conflict Monitoring and Executive Control: Relationship to Subclinical Measures of Depression

Emerging evidence suggests that depression is associated with executive dysfunction, particularly after committing errors or receiving negative performance feedback. To test this hypothesis, 57 participants performed two executive tasks known to elicit errors (the Simon and Stroop Tasks) during positive or negative performance feedback. Participants with elevated depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory scores >= 13) were characterized by impaired posterror and postconflict performance adjustments, especially during emotionally negative task-related feedback. Additionally, for both tasks, depressive symptoms were inversely related to postconflict reaction time adjustments following negative, but not positive, feedback. These findings suggest that subclinical depression is associated with impairments in behavioral adjustments after internal (perceived failure) and external feedback about deficient task performance.Psycholog

Clinical and serological features of systemic sclerosis in a multicenter African American cohort: Analysis of the genome research in African American scleroderma patients clinical database.

Racial differences exist in the severity of systemic sclerosis (SSc). To enhance our knowledge about SSc in African Americans, we established a comprehensive clinical database from the largest multicenter cohort of African American SSc patients assembled to date (the Genome Research in African American Scleroderma Patients (GRASP) cohort).African American SSc patients were enrolled retrospectively and prospectively over a 30-year period (1987-2016), from 18 academic centers throughout the United States. The cross-sectional prevalence of sociodemographic, clinical, and serological features was evaluated. Factors associated with clinically significant manifestations of SSc were assessed using multivariate logistic regression analyses.The study population included a total of 1009 African American SSc patients, comprised of 84% women. In total, 945 (94%) patients met the 2013 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism (ACR/EULAR) classification criteria for SSc, with the remaining 64 (6%) meeting the 1980 ACR or CREST (calcinosis, Raynaud's phenomenon, esophageal dysmotility, sclerodactyly, telangiectasia) criteria. While 43% were actively employed, 33% required disability support. The majority (57%) had the more severe diffuse subtype and a young age at symptom onset (39.1 ± 13.7 years), in marked contrast to that reported in cohorts of predominantly European ancestry. Also, 1 in 10 patients had a severe Medsger cardiac score of 4. Pulmonary fibrosis evident on computed tomography (CT) chest was present in 43% of patients and was significantly associated with anti-topoisomerase I positivity. 38% of patients with CT evidence of pulmonary fibrosis had a severe restrictive ventilator defect, forced vital capacity (FVC) ≤50% predicted. A significant association was noted between longer disease duration and higher odds of pulmonary hypertension, telangiectasia, and calcinosis. The prevalence of potentially fatal scleroderma renal crisis was 7%, 3.5 times higher than the 2% prevalence reported in the European League Against Rheumatism Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort.Our study emphasizes the unique and severe disease burden of SSc in African Americans compared to those of European ancestry

F-Theory GUT Vacua on Compact Calabi-Yau Fourfolds

We present compact three-generation F-theory GUT models meeting in particular the constraints of D3-tadpole cancellation and D-term supersymmetry. To this end we explicitly construct elliptically fibered Calabi-Yau fourfolds as complete intersections in a toric ambient space. Toric methods enable us to control the singular geometry of the SU(5) GUT model. The GUT brane wraps a non-generic del Pezzo surface admitting GUT symmetry breaking via hypercharge flux. It is contractible to a curve and we demonstrate the existence of a consistent decoupling limit. We compute the Euler characteristic of the singular Calabi-Yau fourfold to show that our three-generation flux solutions obtained via the spectral cover construction are consistent with D3-tadpole cancellation.Comment: 22+12 pages; v2: minor clarifications on decoupling limi