The Truth About Soviet Whaling: A Memoir

In November 1993, Professor Alexei Yablokov, who at the time was the Science Advisor to Russian President Boris Yeltsin, stood on a podium in Galveston, Tex., and delivered a speech to the Society for Marine Mammalogy’s biennial conference, the premier international event in the field of marine mammal science. Addressing the 1,500 scientists present, he made what amounted to a national confession: that, beginning in 1948, the U.S.S.R. had begun a huge campaign of illegal whaling. Despite being a signatory to the International Convention on the Regulation of Whaling (signed in Washington, D.C., just 2 years before in 1946), the Soviets set out to pillage the world’s ocea

Canadian Money Demand Functions Cointegration¨CRank Stability

This paper applies conventional tests (Johansen, 1995) and new tests (Chao and Phillips, 1999) for cointegration to long¨Crun money demand functions using historical Canadian data back to 1872. If cointegration is found, recently proposed tests by Quintos (1998a) for stability of the cointegration rank are carried out. The paper focuses on two spans of data: one span starting in 1872, the other in 1957 or 1968. Annual data are used for the former span, and annual and quarterly data for the latter. The preferred money demand specification involves M1.Vector error-correction; unknown change points; long spans of monetary data

Unit Roots, Nonlinear Cointegration and Purchasing Power Parity

We test long¨Crun PPP within a general model of cointegration of linear and nonlinear form. Nonlinear cointegration is tested with rank tests proposed by Breitung (2001). We start with determining the order of integration of each variable in the model, applying relatively powerful DF¨CGLS tests of Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996). Using monthly data from the post¨CBretton Woods era for G¨C10 countries, the evidence leads to a rejection of PPP for almost all countries. In several cases the price variables are driven by permanent shocks that differ from the ones that drive the exchange rate. Also, nonlinear cointegration cannot solve the PPP puzzle.Purchasing power parity; unit roots; nonlinear cointegration

A Closer Look at Long Run Money Demand

We study annual United States data from 1869 or 1900 to 1999. We find evidence for a well-specified and stable model of money demand with data from 1946 to 1999. We carry out diagnostic and stability tests, including nonlinearity tests. A linear cointegration model with the monetary base performs better than a model with M1. A specification with M2 is not supported. We use real GNP as the scale variable and a short term interest rate as the opportunity cost measure. We estimate an income elasticity of .86 and an interest rate elasticity of -.44 for the monetary base.

Zero-sum problems with congruence conditions

For a finite abelian group $G$ and a positive integer $d$, let $\mathsf s_{d \mathbb N} (G)$ denote the smallest integer $\ell \in \mathbb N_0$ such that every sequence $S$ over $G$ of length $|S| \ge \ell$ has a nonempty zero-sum subsequence $T$ of length $|T| \equiv 0 \mod d$. We determine $\mathsf s_{d \mathbb N} (G)$ for all $d\geq 1$ when $G$ has rank at most two and, under mild conditions on $d$, also obtain precise values in the case of $p$-groups. In the same spirit, we obtain new upper bounds for the Erd{\H o}s--Ginzburg--Ziv constant provided that, for the $p$-subgroups $G_p$ of $G$, the Davenport constant $\mathsf D (G_p)$ is bounded above by $2 \exp (G_p)-1$. This generalizes former results for groups of rank two

Empirical evidence on inflation and unemployment in the long run

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3 1/2 years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50 years. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.Inflation, Unemployment, Long-Run Phillips Curve