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    Taxonomic identity of leaf fragments jfound in the annals of the Joseon Dynasty and botanical origin of a herbal medicine 'Cheongung'

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    Tiny leaf fragments were found in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty, which were compiled about 500 years ago. The records describing the detailed process of compiling the Annals indicate that silk bags packed with the powders of 'Cheongung' and 'Changpo', which have been used as traditional herbal medicines in the northeast Asian countries such as China and Japan as well as Korea, were put in the wooden storage boxes together with the volumes of the Annals. However, there is no record that parts of plants were used in the process of compiling the Annals. The botanical origin of leaf fragments was identified as Ligusticum sinense "Chuanxiong' by the analysis of trnK of chloroplast DNA as well as the examination of leaf surface with SEM. The comparative analysis of trnK sequences showed that the choloroplast DNA haplotype of 'To-cheongung', a triploid species cultivated in Korea, was identical with Cnidium officinale, but different from L. sinense "Chuanxiong'. The molecular results provide a new suggestion on the botanical origin of crude drugs used as 'Cheongung', which has been disputed in Korea.OAIID:RECH_ACHV_DSTSH_NO:T201634099RECH_ACHV_FG:RR00200001ADJUST_YN:EMP_ID:A002208CITE_RATE:0DEPT_NM:์ œ์•ฝํ•™๊ณผEMAIL:[email protected]_YN:YCONFIRM:

    ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ •๊ถŒ ์ดํ›„ ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์‹ ๋ฌธ, ํ•œ๊ฒจ๋ ˆ, ๋™์•„์ผ๋ณด, ์กฐ์„ ์ผ๋ณด ์‚ฌ์„ค์„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ

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    ํ•™์œ„๋…ผ๋ฌธ (์„์‚ฌ)-- ์„œ์šธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ๋Œ€ํ•™์› : ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ณต์ง€ํ•™๊ณผ, 2012. 2. ์•ˆ์ƒํ›ˆ.๋ณธ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์€ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ •๊ถŒ ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ ์ดํ›„ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์„ฑ๊ฒฉ์„ ์–ธ๋ก ์˜ ์ง€๋ฐฐ์  ๋‹ด๋ก ๊ณผ ๊ทธ ๋ณ€ํ™”์–‘์ƒ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ๊ทธ ๋ชฉ์ ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๋ณต์ง€์ธ์‹ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ† ๋Œ€๋กœ Stuart Hall์˜ ๊ธฐํ˜ธํ™”/๊ธฐํ˜ธํ•ด๋… ์ด๋ก ์„ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊น€์˜์‚ผ ์ •๋ถ€์—์„œ ์ด๋ช…๋ฐ• ์ •๋ถ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜๊นŒ์ง€์˜ ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์‹ ๋ฌธ, ํ•œ๊ฒจ๋ ˆ, ๋™์•„์ผ๋ณด, ์กฐ์„ ์ผ๋ณด ๋„ค ๊ฐœ ์ผ๊ฐ„์ง€ ์‚ฌ์„ค์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Esping-Andersen์˜ ๋ณต์ง€๋ ˆ์ง ๋…ผ์˜์™€ Aaron Wildavsky์˜ ์ง‘๋‹จ/๋ง ์ฒด๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ˜ผํ•ฉํ•ด ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•œ ๋ถ„์„ ํ‹€๋กœ ์ง€๋ฐฐ์  ๋‹ด๋ก ์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์–ธ๋ก ์˜ ๋‹ด๋ก ์€ ๋ณด์ˆ˜์ฃผ์˜ ๋ฐ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋ฐฐ์  ์ฝ”๋“œ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๊ณ ์šฉ์—ฐ๊ณ„์„ฑ์„ ์ง€๋‹Œ ๋ฐœ์ „์ฃผ์˜ ๋ณต์ง€๋ ˆ์ง์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๊ทœ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค๊ณผ ์ผ๋งฅ์ƒํ†ตํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋‹ด๋ก ์˜ ํ˜•์„ฑ์€ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์‚ฌํšŒ์— ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์ณ์˜จ ์œ ๊ต๋ฌธํ™”์™€ ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ๋…ํŠนํ•œ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์  ๊ฒฝํ—˜์˜ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ ์ธ ์‚ฐ๋ฌผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ์œ ๊ต๋ฌธํ™”์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์‚ฌํšŒ์—์„œ ๋ณต์ง€์˜ ์ผ์ฐจ์  ์ฑ…์ž„์€ ๊ฐ€์กฑ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ๊ณต๋™์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ๋‹นํ•ด์™”๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ๋ณ€ํ™”๋กœ ๊ฐ€์กฑ์˜ ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ณต์ง€๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์ด ์•ฝํ™”๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋Œ€์•ˆ์˜ ๋ชจ์ƒ‰์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ”ผํ•ด์กŒ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ๋ฏผ์ฃผํ™” ์ดํ›„ ๊ถŒ์œ„์ฃผ์˜ ์ •๊ถŒ์˜ ์ œ์™•์  ๋ฆฌ๋”์‹ญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋ถ€๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถˆ์‹ ์ด ๊นŠ์–ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ๋„์˜ ๋ณต์ง€์ œ๋„ ํ™•์ถฉ์„ ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์› ๋‹ค. ๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”, ๊ฒฝ์ œ์œ„๊ธฐ ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์„ฑ์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐˆ๋ง์ด ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜์–ด ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ๋ณต์ง€์š•๊ตฌ ํ•ด์†Œ ๋‹ด๋ก ์ด ํ™•๋Œ€๋œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๋ฌธ์‚ฌ์˜ ์ด๋…์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ง€๋ฐฐ์  ์ฝ”๋“œ๋ฅผ ์žฌ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ์–‘์ƒ์— ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ ์ง„๋ณด์„ฑํ–ฅ์˜ ์‹ ๋ฌธ์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์–‘๊ทนํ™” ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์‹ฌํ™”๋˜์ž ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ๊ฐœ์ž…์„ ์ด‰๊ตฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชฉ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋†“๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด ์—ญ์‹œ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ ์ ์ ˆํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์•ฝ์ž๊ณ„์ธต์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ œํ•œ์  ๊ฐœ์ž…์— ๊ทธ์ณค๋‹ค. ์ƒ๊ธฐํ•œ ๋‹ด๋ก ์€ 2010๋…„ ์ œ5ํšŒ ์ง€๋ฐฉ์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ๋ชฉ์ „์— ๋‘๊ณ  ์ œ๊ธฐ๋œ ๋ฌด์ƒ๊ธ‰์‹ ์ด์Šˆ๋ฅผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณด์ˆ˜์ ์ธ ๋…ผ์กฐ์˜ ์‹ ๋ฌธ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜ ๋‹ด๋ก ์„ ์žฌ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜์˜€์œผ๋‚˜, ์ง„๋ณด์  ์„ฑํ–ฅ์˜ ์‹ ๋ฌธ์€ ๋ณดํŽธ์  ๋ณต์ง€๋ฅผ ๊พ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์‹œ๋ฏผ์˜ ์ž๋ฐœ์ ์ธ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์™€ ์—ฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋…๋ คํ•˜๋Š” ํ‰๋“ฑ์ฃผ์˜ ๋‹ด๋ก ์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ดํ›„ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€์ ์ธ ๋ถ„์„์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜ ๋‹ด๋ก ์ด ํ‰๋“ฑ์ฃผ์˜ ๋‹ด๋ก ์œผ๋กœ ํ—ค๊ฒŒ๋ชจ๋‹ˆ์  ์œ„์น˜๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋†“๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฆฌ๋ผ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด์ƒ์—์„œ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ œ๋„์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์ฒœ์ฐฉํ•ด์˜จ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋‹ด๋ก  ์ฐจ์›์œผ๋กœ ํ™˜๊ธฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฐ ์˜๋ฏธ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๋Š” ์ œ๋„์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ถ”์ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์€ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์˜ ์ธ์‹๊ณผ ์ •์น˜์  ํ–‰์œ„๊ฐ€ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ „์˜ ์›๋™๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€๋‘ํ•œ ๋ฏผ์ฃผํ™” ์ดํ›„ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์„ฑ๊ฒฉ ๊ทœ๋ช…์—๋Š” ํ•œ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ธ์‹ ๊ทธ ์ž์ฒด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์—ญ์‹œ, ์ธ์‹์ด ๋‚ดํฌํ•œ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์˜๋ฏธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•œ ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ ์ ˆํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด ์ง€์ ์—์„œ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๋‹ด๋ก ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ณ ์ฐฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ณต์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ธ์‹๊ณผ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ๋ณ€ํ™” ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ž‘์—…์ด ๋œ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ฏผ์ฃผํ™” ์ดํ›„ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์„ฑ๊ฒฉ ๊ทœ๋ช…์— ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ํ•จ์˜๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‹Œ๋‹ค ํ•˜๊ฒ ๋‹ค.In this paper, I aim to identify the dominant media discourse on the South Korea welfare state since the establishment of democratic regimes for analyze the nature of Korea welfare state. To do this, I have analyzed the editorial in four daily newspapers, KyungHyang Shinmun, Hankyoreh, Dong-AIlbo, ChosunIlbo from 1993 to 2011 years, based on the Stuart Hall's enconding/decoding theory. And the analysis was done by qualitative content analysis using the Espin-Andersen's welfare regime as an analytical framework. The analysis shows that the dominant code about the Korea welfare state is corporatistism and liberalism. Consequently, individual has been encouraged to resolve the welfare need on his own or support of his family. In other words, the primarily responsible for welfare is self-help. These results are closely connected with the precedent studies defining the Korea welfare states as the developmentalist welfare regime. The formation of these discourses seems to be the mixed product affected by Confucian culture and unique historical experiences in Korea. To put it concretely, Confucian have had a strong influence on the tradition putting the primary responsibility of social welfare on the traditional family-oriented community. However, socio-economic changes weakened the family's social welfare function so, exploring other alternatives have became inevitable. In this situation, public have had a profound distrust of the state because of overgovernment in authoritarian regimes. Thus, the role of state institution have been bounded by limited parts. In addition, due to the rapid globalization and the continuous economic crisis, the desire for economic growth have been intensified. Therefore, the discourse about meeting the welfare needs through the market have been extended. Of course, depending on the ideology of the newspaper, they partially have reproduced the alternative code. In particular, progressive newspapers have mentioned the active state intervention for alleviating social polarization. However, this is restricted to the socially underprivileged who can not function in the market properly. The above-mentioned discourses have been changed after the free meal policy gathering strength around the 5th local elections in 2010. Dong-AIlbo and ChosunIlbo have reproduced still the discourse of liberalism, but others have began to produce the egalitarianism discourse for realization of universal welfare. For examples, voluntary participation and solidarity fall under this discourse. Through the additional analysis, I expect to check whether the egalitarian discourse replace the liberalism or not. As a result, this research stirs up to stick to changing institutions in the Korea welfare state studies. Specifically, the study of perception itself does not show the implications of social life so, considering that examines the social discourse is very important task. Therefore, this study has the important implications for identifying the nature of Korea welfare state since the democratization when public awareness and political activity have became as a driving force in the development of the welfare state.Maste

    Analysis on OECD countries' health care system efficiency change using DEA

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    ๋ณด๊ฑดํ–‰์ •ํ•™๊ณผ/์„์‚ฌ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ์ฒด๊ณ„๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ–ฅ์ƒ์„ ๋ชฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ž์›ํˆฌ์ž…, ๊ด€๋ฆฌ, ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์›, ์กฐ์งํ™”, ์„œ๋น„์Šค ์ „๋‹ฌ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋‹ค์„ฏ ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ์š”์†Œ๋“ค๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ„ ๊ต๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ํ™œ๋ฐœํ•ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ์ฒด๊ณ„๋Š” ์ €์ถœ์‚ฐยท๊ณ ๋ นํ™”, ์˜๋ฃŒ๋น„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๋ณดํ—˜ ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋“ฑ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ ํ•œ๊ตญ์ด ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์„ฑ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ชจ๋‹ˆํ„ฐ๋ง ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” OECD ํšŒ์›๊ตญ์˜ ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ์ฒด๊ณ„ ํˆฌ์ž…์š”์†Œ์™€ ์‚ฐ์ถœ์š”์†Œ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ โ€˜ํšจ์œจ ์„ฑโ€™ ๋ฐ โ€˜ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ ๋ณ€ํ™”โ€™ ๋ถ„์„์„ ๋ชฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ถ„์„์— ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” OECD Health Data 2013์ด๋ฉฐ, ๋ถ„์„๋Œ€์ƒ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์€ 2005๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2011๋…„๊นŒ์ง€์ด๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ์—ฐ๋„๋ณ„ โ€˜ํšจ์œจ์„ฑโ€™์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis, ์ž๋ฃŒํฌ๋ฝ๋ถ„์„), ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ โ€˜ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ ๋ณ€ํ™”โ€™๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” Malmquist Productivity Index(๋ง˜ํ€ด์ŠคํŠธ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ ์ง€์ˆ˜)๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. โ€˜ํšจ์œจ์„ฑโ€™ ๋ถ„์„์— ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋œ ํˆฌ์ž…๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์˜๋ฃŒ๋น„, ์˜์‚ฌ์ˆ˜, ๊ฐ„ํ˜ธ์‚ฌ์ˆ˜, ๋ณ‘์ƒ์ˆ˜, ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์˜๋ฃŒ์žฅ๋น„์ด๋ฉฐ ์‚ฐ์ถœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ง„์ฐฐ๊ฑด์ˆ˜, ์˜์•„์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ถ„์„๋ชจํ˜•์€ ํˆฌ ์ž…๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ์กฐํ•ฉ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„๋œ๋‹ค. โ€˜ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ ๋ณ€ํ™”โ€™ ๋ถ„์„์— ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋œ ํˆฌ์ž… ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์˜๋ฃŒ๋น„, ์˜์‚ฌ์ˆ˜, ๋ณ‘์ƒ์ˆ˜, ๊ณ ๊ฐ€์˜๋ฃŒ์žฅ๋น„์ด๋ฉฐ ์‚ฐ์ถœ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์ง„์ฐฐ๊ฑด์ˆ˜, ์˜์•„ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์ด๋‹ค. ์ฃผ์š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค. ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ์ฒด๊ณ„๋Š” ํšจ์œจ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์˜๋ฃŒ๋น„๋‚˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€์˜๋ฃŒ์žฅ๋น„ ๋“ฑ์˜ ๊ณผ์ž‰ํˆฌ์ž…์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ ์ฒด๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํšŒ์›๊ตญ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์€ ๋ถ„์„๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ „์ฒด์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ๋ณ€ํ•จ์ด ์—†์—ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œํŽธ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ํ‡ด๋ณด๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. OECD ํšŒ์›๊ตญ์„ ์˜๋ฃŒ๋ณด์žฅํ˜•ํƒœ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋ถ„๋ฅ˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋น„์Šค ๋งˆ๋ฅดํฌํ˜• ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ตฐ์ด ๋ฒ ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ํ˜• ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ตฐ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’๊ณ  ์‹œ๊ฐ„์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ ๊ฐ์†Œ๋„ ์ ๊ฒŒ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ง„๋ณด๋Š” ๋‘ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ตฐ์—์„œ ๊ณตํ†ต์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์œผ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ํ˜• ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ตฐ์ด ๋” ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ณด๊ฑด์˜๋ฃŒ์ฒด๊ณ„๋Š” ํˆฌ์ž…๊ณผ ์‚ฐ์ถœ์„ ํšจ์œจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋†’์€ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์ด ์œ ์ง€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ํ‡ด๋ณด๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ํ”„๋ก ํ‹ฐ์–ด ํ•˜ํ–ฅ์ด๋™์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ์ตœ์‹  ์น˜๋ฃŒ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€์˜๋ฃŒ์žฅ ๋น„์˜ ๋„์ž…์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ํ–ฅ์ƒ์ด ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์„ฑ๊ณผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง€๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•จ ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ์˜ฌ๋ฐ”๋ฅธ ์ง„๋ฃŒํ–‰ํƒœ๋ฅผ ์œ ๋„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ •์ฑ…์ˆ˜๋ฆฝ์ด ์š”๊ตฌ๋œ๋‹ค.ope

    A Comparative Study on the Fiscal Sustainability of the Welfare State

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    ํ•™์œ„๋…ผ๋ฌธ (๋ฐ•์‚ฌ)-- ์„œ์šธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ๋Œ€ํ•™์› : ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ณต์ง€ํ•™๊ณผ, 2016. 2. ์•ˆ์ƒํ›ˆ.๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์žฌ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ๊ตฌ์ถ• ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์„ ๋ชจ์ƒ‰ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ชฉ์ ์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์œ„ํ—˜์— ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋Œ€์‘ํ•  ๋งŒํ•œ ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ์„ ๊ฐ๋‹นํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋‹ด๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์ œ๋„์  ํŠน์„ฑ์„ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ธก์ •ํ•˜๊ณ , ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ์„ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ, ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์žฅ๊ธฐ์  ์ฐจ์›์˜ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์  ์ฐจ์›์˜ ์žฌ์ •์ˆ˜์ง€๊ท ํ˜• ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์žฌ์ •๊ธฐ์กฐ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š” ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žฅ๊ธฐ์  ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ์˜ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†์— ๋”์šฑ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ํ•จ์˜๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‹ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ(fiscal space) ์ธก์ •์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ณ„, ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜•๋ณ„ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, ๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ˆ์ •์ ์ด๊ณ  ์˜ˆ์ธก ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋‹ด๋ณดํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์žฌ์ •์ˆ˜์ž…์— ์ดˆ์ ์„ ๋งž์ถ”๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์—์„œ, ์„ ์ง„๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ์ž์›๋™์› ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ธ ์กฐ์„ธ ์ œ๋„์— ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ์„ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ชฉ์ ์—์„œ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” OECD 17๊ฐœ๊ตญ์˜ 1980๋…„๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ์ดํ›„์˜ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ์„ ์‚ฐ์ถœํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด, ๋จผ์ € ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ์‹œ๊ณ„์—ด๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ๋ฒกํ„ฐ์ž๊ธฐํšŒ๊ท€๋ชจํ˜•(Vector AutoRegressive model)์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ธฐ์ดˆ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋ฐ˜์‘๊ณก์„ (fiscal reaction function)๊ณผ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ด์ž์œจ ์˜ˆ์ธก๊ฐ’์„ ๋„์ถœํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์Œ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ •๋œ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ์ˆ˜์ง€ ๋ฐ˜์‘๊ณก์„ ๊ณผ ์ด์ž์ƒํ™˜๊ณ„ํš๊ณก์„ (interest payment schedule)์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฐ๊ตญ์˜ ์ฑ„๋ฌดํ•œ๊ณ„(debt limit) ๋ฐ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜๊ณ , ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ๊ตญ์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด์–ด์„œ 3๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์ตœ์†Œ์ œ๊ณฑ๋ฒ•(Three-Stage Least Squares)์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋™์‹œ๋ฐฉ์ •์‹(simultaneous equations)์„ ์ถ”์ •ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ, ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ ์ฆ‰, ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ, ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ์˜ ์ง์ ‘ ํšจ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ๊ณผ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์กฐ์ ˆํ•˜๋Š” ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ์˜ ํšจ๊ณผ๋„ ์‚ดํ•€๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์™€ ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ ํŠน์ง•์—์„œ ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜•๋ก  ๋…ผ์˜์™€์˜ ์œ ์‚ฌ์ ์ด ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์— ๊ธฐ์ดˆํ•˜์—ฌ, ์ผ์›๋ณ€๋Ÿ‰๋ถ„์„(ANOVA) ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ณ„ ์–‘์ƒ์€ ๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜• ๊ฐ„ ํ‰๊ท  ๋ฐ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๋ณ„ ํ‰๊ท  ๋ณ€ํ™” ์–‘์ƒ์„ ์‚ดํŽด ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ๋”์šฑ ๋ช…ํ™•ํžˆ ๋ฐํžˆ๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ๋ถ„์„ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค. ๋จผ์ € ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐ ๋น„๊ต์™€ ๊ด€๋ จํ•ด, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์Šค, ์ŠคํŽ˜์ธ, ์ดํƒˆ๋ฆฌ์•„, ํฌ๋ฅดํˆฌ๊ฐˆ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•˜๋ฉด ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋‹ด๋ณด๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚œ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์—์„œ ์žฌ์ •์œ„๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ํ˜„์‹คํ™”๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋‹จ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์—†๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋‹ด๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์ค‘ ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋‚™๊ด€ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ๊ธฐ์กด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋„ ์ง€์ ๋œ๋ฐ”, ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ์ด ํฐ ํญ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•œ ์˜๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค ๋“ฑ์€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋ณด๋˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๊ด€๋ จํ•ด ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ์ ์€ ๊ธฐ์กด ํ†ต๋…๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ, ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ๋‚ฎ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์žฌ์ •์ˆ˜์ž…์ด ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฌผ๋ก  ๋น„๊ต ๋Œ€์ƒ๊ตญ ์ค‘ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ๋‚ฎ์€ ์˜๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์œ„์‹œํ•œ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜ ์œ ํ˜• ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ํ‰๊ท  ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ์ด ๋„“์€ ํŽธ์ด๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์—์„œ๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ์ด ๋Œ€ํญ ์ถ•์†Œ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋ฐ˜ํ•ด, ๊ตญ๋‚ด์ด์ƒ์‚ฐ์˜ 30% ๊ฐ€๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋ณต์ง€์— ์“ฐ๋Š” ๋…ธ๋ฅด์›จ์ด๋‚˜ ๋ด๋งˆํฌ, ์Šค์›จ๋ด๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์—์„œ๋Š” ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋‹ด๋ณด๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ตœ๊ทผ๊นŒ์ง€ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ์ด ๋”์šฑ ๋„“์–ด์ง€๋Š” ์–‘์ƒ์„ ๋ณด์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์Œ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ์œผ๋กœ ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ์— ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•˜์˜€๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ฃผ์š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค. ๋จผ์ € ์ ์ • ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ์กฐ์„ธ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ์ง€๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์žฌ์› ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๋งˆ๋ จํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฌผ๋ก  ์‚ฌํšŒํ†ตํ•ฉ์„ ๋„๋ชจํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ์ด ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ๋ถ€์  ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด์–ด์„œ ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ž ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์›์น™์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ, ๊ณผ์„ธ์› ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ณตํ‰์„ฑ๊ณผ ์„ธ์ œ ๋ˆ„์ง„์œจ์„ ๋†’์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ๊ด€๋ จํ•ด ๋…ธ๋™๊ณผ์„ธ์™€ ์ž๋ณธ๊ณผ์„ธ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ค„์—ฌ ์ˆ˜ํ‰์  ๊ณตํ‰์„ฑ์„ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ๋น„๊ณผ์„ธ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ณผ์„ธ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๋„“ํž˜์œผ๋กœ์จ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ • ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜ํ‰์  ๊ณตํ‰์„ฑ์˜ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ˆ˜์ง์  ๊ณตํ‰์„ฑ์„ ์ œ๊ณ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์—ญ์‹œ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์ง์  ๊ณตํ‰์„ฑ์˜ ์ œ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ง‘๋‹จ์˜ ๊ณผ๋„ํ•œ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง€๋ฉด ์กฐ์„ธํšŒํ”ผ๋ฅผ ์กฐ์žฅํ•ด ์žฌ์ •์•ˆ์ •์„ ํ•ด์น  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด๋Š” ์ˆ˜ํ‰์  ๊ณตํ‰์„ฑ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์กฐ์„ธ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์›์น™์˜ ํ•œ ์ถ•์œผ๋กœ ์กฐ์„ธ์ˆœ์‘์„ ๋†’์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ์†Œ๋น„๊ณผ์„ธ ํ™•์ถฉ์—์„œ ์ดˆ๋ž˜๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์—ญ์ง„์„ฑ์„ ์™„ํ™”ํ•˜์—ฌ ์„ธ์ œ์˜ ์ •์น˜์  ์ •๋‹น์„ฑ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ๋”๋ถˆ์–ด, ์ˆ˜์ต์ž ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์›์น™๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จํ•ด ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ณด์žฅ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๊ธˆ๊ณผ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„๊ธฐ์—ฌ ๋“ฑ์„ ์ ์ ˆํžˆ ํ™œ์šฉํ•ด ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ • ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๋‹ค์›ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ์œ ๋ฆฌํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์ˆ˜์ต์ž ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์›์น™์— ๊ธฐ์ดˆํ•œ ์žฌ์›์€ ์ €์†Œ๋“์ธต์˜ ๋ฐฐ์ œ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฏ€๋กœ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ž ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์›์น™๊ณผ ์กฐํ•ฉํ•˜์—ฌ ํ™œ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ํ•จ์˜๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‹Œ๋‹ค. ์ฒซ์งธ, ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ์žฌ์ •ํ•™ ๋ฐ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ๋…ผ์˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์žฌ์ •์‚ฌํšŒํ•™์  ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ ์ •์น˜ยท๊ฒฝ์ œยท์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์ธก๋ฉด์„ ํฌ๊ด„ํ•œ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ธก์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ํ‹€์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋•Œ ์„ ํ–‰์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋…ธ์ •ํ•œ ํ•œ๊ณ„, ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋‚˜ ์ œ๋„์  ์š”์ธ ๋“ฑ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์„ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•˜๋Š” ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ๊ณผ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ํŒ๋‹จ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์—„๋ฐ€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ค€์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์  ๋“ฑ์„ ๋ณด์™„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ์— ์ดˆ์ ์„ ๋งž์ถฐ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์กฐ๋ช…ํ•˜์˜€๋˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ํ™˜๊ธฐํ•˜์—ฌ ์žฌ์ •์˜ ๋‘ ์ถ•์ธ ์ง€์ถœ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ž… ์ธก๋ฉด์„ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ, ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋‹ด๋ณดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์‹ค์ฆ์ ์ธ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด์–ด์„œ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜•๋ก ๊ณผ์˜ ์—ฐ์†์„ ์—์„œ ์žฌ์ •์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•˜์—ฌ, ๊ฒฌ๊ณ ํ•œ ์ด๋ก ์  ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์œ„์—์„œ ํ•ด์„์„ ์‹œ๋„ํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ฐจ์ด์˜ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ๋ช…ํ™•ํžˆ ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์ด์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜, ์žฌ์ •์ˆ˜์ž… ์ธก๋ฉด์„ ํฌ๊ด„ํ•˜๊ณ , ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ์™€ ์žฌ์ •์„ฑ๊ณผ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋‚ด์–ด ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜•๋ก  ๋…ผ์˜์˜ ์™ธ์—ฐ์„ ํ™•์žฅํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋ก ์  ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ๊ณผ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ์—ญ ์ธ๊ณผ๊ด€๊ณ„(reverse causality)๋ฅผ ์‹ค์ฆ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทœ๋ช…ํ•˜์—ฌ, ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋…ผ์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋ณต์ง€์ง€์ถœ๊ณผ ์žฌ์ •์—ฌ๋ ฅ ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ƒํ˜ธ์ธ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•ด์•ผ ํ•จ์„ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค.์ œ1์žฅ ์„œ๋ก  1 ์ œ1์ ˆ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ์ค‘์š”์„ฑ 3 ์ œ2์ ˆ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์กฐ์„ธ์ œ๋„ 5 ์ œ3์ ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ชฉ์  ๋ฐ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฌธ์ œ 9 ์ œ2์žฅ ์ด๋ก ์  ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ ๋ฐ ์„ ํ–‰์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒ€ํ†  12 ์ œ1์ ˆ ์ด๋ก ์  ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ 12 1. ์žฌ์ •์‚ฌํšŒํ•™ 12 2. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜•๋ก  18 ์ œ2์ ˆ ๊ธฐ์กด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ๊ด€์  23 1. ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ๊ฐœ๋… ๋ฐ ์ธก์ • 23 2. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ 36 ์ œ3์ ˆ ๊ธฐ์กด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ํ•œ๊ณ„ 50 1. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ๊ฐœ๋… ๋ฐ ์ธก์ • ์ฐจ์› 50 2. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ ๋ถ„์„ ์ฐจ์› 52 ์ œ4์ ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ชจํ˜• 55 1. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ์ธก์ • 57 2. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ 61 ์ œ3์žฅ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• 68 ์ œ1์ ˆ ๋ถ„์„๋Œ€์ƒ ๋ฐ ์‹œ๊ธฐ 68 ์ œ2์ ˆ ๋ถ„์„๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• 70 1. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฌธ์ œ 1) ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐ ๋น„๊ต 70 2. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฌธ์ œ 2) ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ ๊ทœ๋ช… 79 ์ œ3์ ˆ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ์กฐ์ž‘์  ์ •์˜ 84 1. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฌธ์ œ 1) ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐ ๋น„๊ต 84 2. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฌธ์ œ 2) ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ ๊ทœ๋ช… 97 ์ œ4์žฅ ๋ถ„์„๊ฒฐ๊ณผ 113 ์ œ1์ ˆ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐ ๋น„๊ต 113 1. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ธก์ • 113 2. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜•๋ณ„ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋น„๊ต 133 ์ œ2์ ˆ ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ 140 1. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •์š”์ธ 140 2. ๋ณต์ง€๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ ํ˜•๋ณ„ ์กฐ์„ธ๊ตฌ์กฐ ๋ณ€ํ™” ์–‘์ƒ๊ณผ ์žฌ์ •์  ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ 149 ์ œ5์žฅ ๊ฒฐ๋ก  173 ์ œ1์ ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์˜ ์š”์•ฝ 173 ์ œ2์ ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ํ•จ์˜ 177 1. ์ด๋ก ์  ํ•จ์˜ 177 2. ์ •์ฑ…์  ํ•จ์˜ 178 ์ œ3์ ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ํ•œ๊ณ„ 182 ์ฐธ๊ณ ๋ฌธํ—Œ 185 ๋ถ€๋ก 204 Abstract 208Docto
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