An Empirical Study on the Factors Determining Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy

随着证券市场的演进，证券分析师的角色逐渐脱颖而出。09年，CSMAR统计的31家卖方证券公司的卖方证券分析师人数为1002人，当年撰写研究报告总数达10092篇。证券分析师正是通过专业的分析和判断，给个人投资者和机构投资者输出盈利预测和投资评级等研究成果，从而起到信息枢纽的作用。在分析师的产出中，盈利预测被认为是最基础和最重要的“产品”，且它是分析师进行投资评级的重要依据。因此，不论对于个人投资者还是机构投资者，分析师盈利预测是否准确以及那些因素影响了证券分析师盈利预测准确度至关重要。遗憾的是，国内学术界对分析师盈利预测准确度及其影响因素的研究尚不充分。故而，本文将在前人研究成果的基础上探讨这...With the evolution of the securities market, stock analysts have become increasingly concerned by academic field and practitioners. It is estimated by CSMAR that 31 major broker houses of China have employed over 1002 sell-side stock analysts, who released 10,092 stock analysis reports to the market over the year of 2009. Via professional analysis and judgment skills, stock analysts work as an inf...学位：管理学硕士院系专业：管理学院企业管理系_企业管理(含财务管理、市场营销、人力资源管理)学号：1762007115177

洪泽湖大型底栖动物群落结构及其与环境因子的关系

洪泽湖是我国第四大淡水湖,然而关于洪泽湖大型底栖动物的报道较少。为了研究洪泽湖大型底栖动物群落结构特征及其影响因子,在洪泽湖设置20个采样点,进行了为期1周年的季度调查(2010年5月-2011年2月)。共采集到大型底栖动物14种,寡毛类、摇蚊科幼虫和软体动物分别有5种(占总物种数的35.7%)、3种(21.4%)和6种(42.9%)。河蚬为第一优势种(优势度Y=0.18),其次分别为苏氏尾鳃蚓(0.09)、羽摇蚊(0.07)、霍甫水丝蚓(0.06)和铜锈环棱螺(0.06)。群落的平均密度和平均生物量分别为(45.45±7.38)个/m2和(52.43±12.04)g/m2,其中软体动物平均密度和平均生物量最高[(24.80±6.20)个/m2和(49.55±11.94)g/m2],摇蚊类次之[(13.76±2.87)个/m2和(2.28±0.71)g/m2],寡毛类最低[(6.96±2.41)个/m2和(0.60±0.18)g/m2]。全湖Shannon-Wiener、Margalef和Pielou指数分别为2.69、1.10和0.71,各指数季节差异不明显。冗余分析(RDA)结果共解释物种数据累计方差的35.0%;MonteCarlo检验表明,洪泽湖水体中硝酸盐氮、总氮和化学耗氧量是影响底栖动物群落分布最关键的环境因子(F=2.181～3.277,P<0.05)

为什么中亚与中国的贸易持续增长

近期的事件加强了中国和中亚之间建立更强有力的合作的想法。在上世纪九十年代末的长时间停滞之后, 中国和中亚之间的贸易流量激增。2005 年，中国石油天然气集团公司成为哈萨克斯坦PK石油公司的所有者，该公司是哈萨克斯坦最大的独立石油生产商。在政治方面，在2005 年5月的安集延事件之后，乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫正式访问了中国, 并签署了重要的合作协议。译者联系Email：武汉大学经济管理学院企业管理系#厦门大学管理学院企业系（430000#361005

私有化能否改善环境？

过去的二十年中，私有化已经成为一个全球性的现象。私有化对产出、效率和福利的影响也已经在文献中[ 参见Shleifer (1998)和Vickers与Yarrow (1988)的详细研究。]得到广泛的研究。从包括利润和消费者剩余的社会福利来看，公众持有企业的生产倾向于无效率。所以，私有化将经理们的目标从社会福利转向了利润最大化，这能导致更有效率的生产。但是，私有化对环境质量的影响却极少获得学术界的关注。在生产的过程中，同时也产生了空气污染和水污染这样的“副产品”。因为私有化降低了产量，进而减少了污染排放，它似乎意味着私有化可以改善环境。上面的论点只有在没有污染税收的情况下才是有效的。在现实中，污染税在很多国家中是存在的，且它们是以使用者支付为原则征收的。这减轻了企业的税赋压力，导致它们增加产量和污染排放。本文的目的在于，通过一个简单的模型去验明在什么条件下私有化会导致环境的恶化。译者单位：中山大学管理学院市场学系(510275

Methodology proposal for technology transfer through the creation of academic Spin Offs

Orientador: Antonio BatocchioTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia MecânicaResumo: Neste trabalho desenvolveu-se uma metodologia de estímulo a transferência de tecnologia por meio da criação de spin offs acadêmicos que pode ser utilizado por diversas instituições de pesquisa dentro e fora do Brasil. Esta metodologia foi aplicada por três anos consecutivos na UNICAMP por meio de um programa de 4 meses de duração chamado de Desafio Unicamp de Inovação Tecnológica. Pelas três edições do programa passaram mais de 510 participantes, sendo um spin off acadêmico criado e dois em processo final de criação. A metodologia desenvolvida conta com várias etapas: capacitação empreendedora, escolha e análise de tecnologias depositadas pela instituição de pesquisa, desenvolvimento de modelos de negócios para as tecnologias protegidas escolhidas, teste e validação das hipóteses que suportam os modelos de negócios criados, elaboração de uma apresentação final, premiação dos melhores trabalhos e suporte pós-programa aos melhores projetos. Ao final das três edições conclui-se que a metodologia conseguiu estimular a avaliação de mais de 70 tecnologias da instituição de pesquisa mostrando diversos modelos de negócios pelo quais estas poderiam ser exploradas comercialmente. Porém, o estudo também mostrou que para aumentar o número de spin offs acadêmicos será necessário instituir uma política de apoio maior, estruturando principalmente fundos para financiamento dos testes de prova de conceito necessários para o desenvolvimento da empresa em seus estágios iniciais. Além disto, será necessário capacitar melhor os NITs (Núcleo de Inovação Tecnológica) das instituições de pesquisa para que estes possam fornecer apoio e consultoria aos empreendedores em gestão de projetos e aumento da rede de relacionamentos, pois estes foram os pontos que inviabilizaram a maioria das iniciativas empreendedoras iniciadas durante a aplicação da metodologiaAbstract: In this study, it was developed and implemented a method to encourage technology transfer through academic spin-offs that could be used by research institutions in Brazil and around the world. This method was applied for three consecutive years at UNICAMP through four months duration program called "Desafio Unicamp de Inovação Tecnológica". In these three editions, more than 510 participants were trained, one academic spin-off was created and other two are in the final process of creation. The developed method used in the program has multiple stages, as follow: entrepreneurial empowerment, analysis and choice of technologies, development of business models, testing and validation of hypotheses that support the business model created, preparing a pitch and an awarding ceremony. At the end of the three editions, it was concluded that the method could successfully stimulate the evaluation of more than 70 technologies through the creation of more than 150 business models. However, the study also indicated that if Brazil wants to increase the number of academic spin-offs it needs to create a policy to support the creation of funds for financing the proof of concept tests, so necessary for the development of an early stage technology company. Additionally, further personal development is needed in order to enable the research institutions¿ NIT personnel (Technology Innovation Nuclei) to support and advise entrepreneurs in project management and increase their business network. Errors in these supports and advices were shown to contribute in the failure of most entrepreneurial endeavors carried on this studyDoutoradoMateriais e Processos de FabricaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Mecânic

电子商务中WOM信任度的研究:消费者感知的差异

探讨消费者在电子商务背景下对正面WOM和负面WOM信任度的差异,以及哪些因素影响了消费者对电子商务中WOM的信任度。通过对广州、武汉、北京、长沙、重庆和桂林的107个样本进行问卷调查,采用均差分析和相关分析等研究方法对假设模型进行检验,研究结果表明:消费者对电子商务中负面WOM的信任度显著高于正面WOM的信任度;消费者的感知技术信任度、感知市场导向和感知网站从事电子商务的能力与消费者对正面WOM的信任度之间成正相关关系。国家自然科学基金项目(70302010

南极科学考察概况及淡水生态系统研究

本文简要介绍了南极洲的漂移演变、地理景观、气候状况和自然资源。对南极发现过程及科学考察历史亦作了简短论述。中国南极长城站位于西南极菲尔德斯半岛西南端 (58&deg;57&prime;52&Prime;W ,6 2&deg;12&prime;59&Prime;E) ,中山站则位于东南极拉斯曼丘陵的米勒半岛北端 (76&deg;2 2&prime;2 4&Prime;E ,6 9&deg;2 2&prime;2 4&Prime;S) ,两者相距 50 0 0km。作者以1991- 1995年实地考察结果为据 ,对长城站和中山站地区湖泊、溪流、雪地等淡水生态系统的理化环境、生物群落结构与功能现状进行比较研究 ,对引起两地淡水生态系统

长江流域若干水体寡毛类区系组成及相似性分析

研究了长江流域十余个水体水栖寡毛类的区系组成及分布。共鉴定水栖寡毛类５３种，隶３科，２７属，其中仙女虫科１５属３１（占５８．４９％）；颤蚓科１１属２０种（占３７．７４％）；线蚓科１属２种（占３．７７％）。在河流、草型湖泊和藻型湖泊这三类水体中，以草型湖泊的物种数量多，达３６种；其次为长江干流，３４种；藻型湖泊仅２４种。对寡毛类的种间关系及不同生境寡毛类种类组成的相似性进行了聚类分析，结果表明，寡

长江流域若干水体寡毛类区系组成及相似性分析

研究了长江流域十余个水体水栖寡毛类的区系组成及分布。共鉴定水栖寡毛类53种，隶3科27属，其中仙女虫科15属31种(占58.49%)；颤蚓科11属20种(占37.74%)；线蚓科1属2种(占3.77%)。在河流、草型湖泊和藻型湖泊这三类水体中，以草型湖泊的物种数最多，达36种；其次为长江干流，34种；藻型湖泊仅24种。对寡毛类的种间关系及不同生境寡毛类种类组成的相似性进行了聚类分析，结果表明，寡毛类的种类分布具有明显的地域性，据此可将其划分为6类(A&mdash;F组)

中国水栖寡毛类的研究：IV.仙女虫科和颤蚓科的新记录和稀有种

本文共记载仙女虫科和颤吲科的９个种，其中６个种是国内新记录，即森珀头鳃虫、三齿尾盘虫、平叉吻盲虫、坦氏泥蚓、美洲管水蚓、维氏沼丝蚓、；同时将一亚种［昌都两栖吻盲虫］提升为种［昌都小吻盲虫］