中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析

中国二氧化碳排放的拐点对二氧化碳排放的认识和中国对二氧化碳排放的承诺十分重要。迄今国内还没有对中国二氧化碳排放拐点和预测的研究。本文利用传统的环境库兹涅茨模型模拟与在二氧化碳排放预测的基础上预测两种方法,对中国的二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线做了对比研究和预测,发现结果存在较大差异。采用对数平均迪式分解法(lMdI)和STIrPA模型,分析了影响中国人均二氧化碳排放的主要因素,解析差异原因。本文的主要结论是:(1)中国二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线的理论拐点对应的人均收入是37170元,即2020年左右。但实证预测表明,拐点到2040年还没有出现;(2)除了人均收入外,能源强度,产业结构和能源消费结构都对二氧化碳排放有显著影响,特别是能源强度中的工业能源强度。长江学者科研配套经费;国家社科基金(08BJL050)的支

On the Energy Subsidies Reform and Clean Energy Development

能源补贴是使生产者或消费者的能源价格偏离市场价格的政府干预,在发展中国家是一个非常重要的问题。能源补贴通过对能源消费、能源效率以及能源结构影响进而影响社会可持续发展这一根本目标。本文在考虑外部成本的情况下,采用价差法估算了中国2007年的终端能源价格补贴,结果表明:2007年中国的能源补贴占gdP的4.51%。其中对成品油的补贴最多,其次是煤炭和电力。与化石能源过度补贴相反的是,政府对清洁能源发展的现有补贴规模很小,还不能弥补清洁能源完全发电成本。CgE模型结果表明:取消化石能源补贴,能显著减少一次能源消费和二氧化碳排放,但对宏观经济的冲击较大。如果在取消能源补贴的同时,将补贴投入清洁能源部门,对宏观经济将有正面影响,对社会可持续发展意义重大。Energy subsidy is a form of government intervention resulting in a deviation of actual energy price from a specified benchmark price.Energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy use,efficiency and the types of fuels that are used.With the consideration of the external cost in the process of energy consumption,this paper applies the price-gap approach to estimate the Chinese energy subsidies in 2007.The results indicate that Chinese energy subsidies are equivalent about 4.51%of GDP in 2007,of which oil produces subsidies were the majority,subsequently was the coal and electricity sector.However,the subsidies to the clean energy are relatively small,which could not support the generation cost.The quantitative analysis of CGE model shows that removing energy subsidies will result in decreasing energy demand and emissions significantly,but will have large negative impacts on macroeconomic variables.If imputing a certain proportion of the subsidy savings to encourage clean energy development,there will be a positive impact on macroeconomy variables and benefit sustainable development.长江学者科研配套经费;国家社科基金重大项目“美、日等西方国家新能源政策跟踪及我国低碳经济研究”(09&ZD050)资

The Analysis and Design of China's Residential Electricity Tariff Subsidies

能源补贴是能源价格改革的重点,其中又以电力补贴与居民生活联系最紧密,是居民最敏感的问题。本文采用价差法估算了中国居民用电交叉补贴的规模,并通过估计不同收入群体的补贴量,分析了目前补贴机制的效率。结果表明:2007年中国对居民用电交叉补贴为2097.6亿元,占当年gdP的0.84%。由于补贴的无针对性,真正需要补贴的贫困居民仅获得了小部分补贴,而高收入群体却获得了大部分补贴,补贴机制是缺乏效率的。因为补贴常常是通过国有电力企业的亏损来实现,那么,全民所有的定义将导致低收入群体补贴高收入群体,因此,无目标补贴也是不公平的。如果实行有针对性的补贴,新补贴机制下对居民用电的补贴可以降低至950.6亿元。而且如果将减少的补贴用于清洁能源电力的发展,还可以降低居民的消费差距,提高公平和效率。Energy subsidy is the focus of energy pricing reform.Electricity tariff subsidy is closely related to residents' livelihood, and is a very sensitive issue to residents.In the paper the authors estimate the scale of cross-subsidy in residential electricity tariff based on price-gap approach, and analyze the efficiency of subsidy by estimating the subsidies for different income-level residents.The results indicate that in 2007, the cross-sub- sidy of residential electricity tariff was RMB209.76 billion yuan, accounting for 0.84% of GDP.Because lac- king of targeted subsidies, low-income residents enjoyed much less subsidies comparing with high-income resi- dents due to their electricity consumption differential.Therefore, the existing subsidy mechanism is inefficient.As subsidies are usually covered by the loss of state-owned enterprises, the natural of state-owned will lead to the situation of poor subsidizing the rich.Therefore, it is unfair.If improving the existing subsidy mechanism by clearly targeting different groups, the subsidies to residential electricity tariff will be reduced by RMB95.06 billion yuan.Furthermore, subsidy savings could be used to subsidize the development of clean energy.This will lead to reducing consumption gap between different income-level residents and can enhance fairness and ef- ficiency