区域旅游产业生态效率评价及其空间差异研究——以江西省为例

生态效率是衡量区域旅游产业绿色可持续发展水平的重要指标。文章以全国首批生态文明示范区——江西省的11个地级市为例,在构建旅游产业生态效率投入产出指标体系的基础上,运用超效率DEA模型对2011-2016年江西省旅游产业生态效率进行综合评价,利用ESDA空间分析手段揭示其空间差异特征。结果表明:江西省旅游产业生态效率总体水平较高,波动范围较小,生态效率平均值达到1.457;江西各地市间存在较为明显的地区差异,根据效率差异可将江西省11个地级市分为生态效率最优市、生态效率次优市、生态效率弱优市和生态效率非优市等四大类型;2011-2016年江西省旅游产业生态效率在空间上总体呈现\"赣北均衡、赣中聚强、赣南衰弱\"的变化态势,存在显著的空间负相关特征,但地市间的相互作用偏弱,生态效率强市的带动作用不明显。国家自然科学基金项目(71774135);;江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ160461);;江西省自然科学基金项目(20171BAA218010

A Review on the Methods of Evaluating the Economic Value of Tourism Resource in Scenic Area

通过回顾景区资源经济价值评估的研究历程,对国内外相关文献进行归纳与总结,梳理出5种主要的评估方法。在系统阐述各评估方法的理论基础与形式特点之后,分析了各评估方法在理论研究和实际应用中存在的问题,并从方法的理论范式和应用实践两个维度对各评估方法进行总结与对比评价,同时对现有研究及未来研究重点进行了总结与展望。Scientific and effective assessment method is the key to evaluate the economic value of tourism resource.By reviewing on the various methods of the tourism economic value evaluation both at home and abroad,the current five highly applied evaluation methods have been summed up and studied in this paper.The paper points out the basic theories of the five evaluation methods and analyzes the forms and characteristics of each method.This paper further describes the existing problems of each method both in the theoretical research and practical application.Furthermore,the evaluation methods are compared and summarized from two dimensions :theoretical category and application practice.Last,the future research of domestic are discussed and prospected

Research on Scenic Spot`s Operational Right Pricing -- the Real Option Perspective

科学准确地对旅游景区经营权的出让价格进行评估是实现我国景区经营权合理流转的关键，但以收益现值法为主流的现行评估方法并不能完全解决景区经营权的出让定价问题。通过对文献的系统回顾与深入评析，我们发现，引入实物期权的概念能够很好地提升景区经营权价值评估的准确性，实现景区经营权的合理定价。循此思路，本文在剖析景区经营权及其价值内涵的基础上，考虑已有评估方法的局限及其定价评估特殊性，创新性地提出了实物期权的定价新思路。通过阐释景区经营权实物期权特征及其价值形成与演变机理，构建了景区经营权的实物期权定价模型，优化了模型关键参数，检验了模型应用条件，并以福建冠豸山国家重点风景名胜区为例，进行了案例的实证与对...Scientific and accurate pricing of the operational right value is the key issue in the transformation process of property right for a scenic spot. However, it is informed that the Income Capitalization Approach which is the current mainstream method can not completely solve the problems of the value pricing of the operational right of scenic spots. Through a systematic review of existing literatur...学位：管理学博士院系专业：管理学院_旅游管理学号：1782012015341

大陆居民赴台湾旅游需求波动性研究

研究大陆居民赴台旅游波动规律,能够科学预测区域旅游发展趋势和制定有效的旅游政策。本文从经济周期波动的视角,分别采用季节调整法和bP滤波法对大陆赴台旅游人次数进行短时段和长时段分析,然后用趋势回归分析等方法对人次数进行预测。研究结果表明:从短期看,大陆赴台旅游存在明显的季节性波动特点;从长期看,大陆赴台旅游的周期长度相对稳定,4年左右为一个波动周期,波动幅度较大且呈现逐渐增大趋势。另外,经济发展水平、旅游政策,对大陆赴台旅游的长期波动存在重要影响,旅游促销、内地居民闲余时间安排等因素将对大陆赴台旅游的短期波动产生直接影响

不同形貌普鲁士蓝纳米粒子的合成及光热性能

制备了立方体、直角立方体、球形、棒状、中空状、核壳状、梭形、多面体等8种不同形貌的普鲁士蓝纳米粒子,利用扫描电子显微镜、透射电子显微镜、紫外-可见分光光度计等对纳米粒子进行了表征,考察了普鲁士蓝纳米粒子光热性能的影响因素.结果表明,普鲁士蓝纳米粒子的形貌与光热性能之间联系密切,粒子形貌不同,光热性能不同;当外部实验条件一定时,纳米粒子的形貌、大小、吸收横截面积、尖锐化程度及密实程度等对其光热性能有很大的影响;当纳米粒子形貌一定时,外部因素如激光器的选择、激光功率密度及纳米粒子的浓度等直接影响普鲁士蓝纳米粒子的光热性能;在相同浓度下,激光功率密度越大,纳米粒子的升温效果越明显,光热性能越好;而激光功率密度不变时,纳米粒子浓度越大,其光热转换效率越高.国家自然科学基金(批准号:31271071,31371012,U1505228)资助~

武湖的渔业资源及渔业利用初步意见

武湖现有鱼类50种,其中鲤科鱼类33种,占总数的66%。渔获物组成中,鲢、鳙、鲤、鲫、鲌的产量占总产量的93%左右,渔获物以低龄为主。武湖目前的主要增养殖方式是放养鲢鳙,通过投放无机和有机化肥培养浮游生物来达到增加鲢鳙鱼产量的目的。针对武湖的渔业资源现状和渔业可持续发展的需要,提出了渔业利用的初步意见

Research on the Demand Fluctuation of Travel to Hong Kong and Its Influenced Factors

研究我国大陆赴港旅游波动规律,能够科学地预测区域旅游发展趋势和制定有效的旅游发展政策。本文从周期波动的视角,选取HP滤波法和bP滤波法,对大陆赴港旅游进行长时段周期性波动分析,基于季节调整法对大陆赴港旅游进行短时段季节性波动分析。研究表明,1976年以来大陆赴港旅游经历了9次周期性波动变化,平均波动周期为3.8年,周期长度呈现先升后降的变动趋势,且整体波动幅度渐趋平缓;从短期波动特征来看,大陆赴港旅游整体表现出明显的季节性递增波动特点,春季为各年大陆赴港旅游的低谷期,7—8月将迎来每年赴港旅游的高潮,其后的9—11月会有一定的波动调整,并在12月再次达到高峰;从其影响因素来看,除季节因素与不规则因素会对大陆赴港旅游产生阶段性的短期影响之外,其他因素,诸如社会经济发展、旅游发展政策、居民消费能力等因素,也将对大陆赴港旅游的长短期波动规律产生显著影响。最后,基于研究结论提出了相应旅游发展政策,指出未来应加强对大陆赴港旅游经济效应的分析。Accurately grasp the tourist demand variation patterns is the key to predict the tourist demand trends,which can also explain the support and contribution which mainland residents to Hong Kong tourism brings to Hong Kong's tourism economy scientifically.Based on the theory of economic cycle analysis perspective,this paper uses the HP filter and BP filter to analysis the annual time series of tourism demand of mainland residents to Hong Kong and selects the seasonal adjustment method to analysis the monthly time series,and draw the following conclusions:a.From the perspective of the long-term volatility,as the data shows,since 1976,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism exists a total number of nine cyclical fluctuation changes during this period,the average fluctuation period is about 3.8 years,and the trend of the cycle length increases first and then becomes shorter gradually in the next few years,the volatility of the cycle length are becoming more smooth;with the decomposition of its long-term trend elements,this paper finds that the future of the Hong Kong tourism will continue to maintain a large growth increment.b.From the perspective of the short-term volatility,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism fluctuation presents an obvious increasing seasonal characteristic.Through the seasonal adjustment,the extracted seasonal factors showed that the spring is the "down times" of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism which is limited by tourists fatigue to go out to travel;under the influences of the increase of free time and the vacation holidaies,the peak number of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism will be met in July and August.thereafter,during the month of September to November,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism will show some fluctuation adjustments,and then peaked again in December.c.With a thorough analysis on the influenced factors of the variation of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,this paper finds that:apart from the seasonal factor and irregular factor which will make a short-term impact on the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,the level of economic development,tourism development policies,and the deepening economic integration process on the mainland and Hong Kong all have a significant influence on the long-term variation rule;the political and economic crisis and other factors,such as the mainland residents' consumption ability,the festival/holiday arrangement will significantly affect the short-term fluctuations of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism;moreover,the augment of the alternative destination and the reduce cost in alternative tourism destination will definitely have a certain impact on the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,but both short-term and long-term prediction results show that the overall growth trend of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism will not be changed.With the increasing passengers of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,especially the mainland residents' purchasing power is growing rapidly,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism has become a main driver of the growth of Hong Kong tourism industry and maintains it at a high development speed.Therefore,the future research can strengthen the attention to the analysis of economic effect what the mainland brings to Hong Kong,and quantitative measure the mainland to Hong Kong tourism's economic contribution,and on this basis,put forward some specific suggestions on tourism development and help to make the public development policies.In addition,how to measure the holiday /weekday effect and in the seasonal adjustment process in the field of tourism research also needs to be further in-depth explore

The Evaluation of Management Right Value of Scenic Spots——Based on the Research Perspective of Real Options

景区经营权价值评估是实现我国景区经营权合理流转的关键,但以收益还原法为主流的现行方法并不能准确地评估景区经营权价值。通过研究,本文发现,引入实物期权概念能够提升景区经营权价值评估的准确性。本文以产权视角为切入点,通过景区经营权实物期权的动态和静态特征研究景区经营权的期权价值形成、演变机理,以冠豸山国家重点风景名胜区为例,初步实证了实物期权视角下的景区经营权价值评估,并得出如下结论:(1)景区经营权价值是一种依托于旅游资源的产权价值,其价值评估的实质是资本化景区旅游资源开发权利的价值,产权视角下的景区经营权,本质上是一种按年度执行的多期嵌套实物期权,旅游资源是其标的资产;(2)基于实物期权的景区经营权价值形成表现为:景区投资开发过程中,投资柔性给景区预期旅游收益与投资开发成本之间带来的差额变动;(3)景区经营权的实物期权特征是一个动态的变动过程,各阶段的期权价值呈现先增后减的变化态势,期权价值在经营权到期日将变为零;(4)融入实物期权法较单纯采用收益还原法更加科学,评估结果更为客观,实际参考价值更大;(5)在构建单一期权条件下的景区经营权期权价值评估模型的基础上,以冠豸山风景名胜区为例,通过与现有评估方法进行对比研究,进一步验证了实物期权理论在景区经营权价值评估中的应用价值。The transfer of management right of scenic spots is a typical phenomenon of Chinese tourism industry,and the assessment of managerial right value is the key issue in the transformation process of property right.After years of academic research,the Income Capitalization Approach has been mainly used in the value evaluation of management right.However,it is informed that the Income Capitalization Approach which is the mainstream of current methods can not completely solve the problems of the value evaluation of management right of scenic spots.Through research we find that the Real Option Theory is more helpful in the value evaluation of management right.Based on this,using the perspective of property right as the breakthrough point,this paper analyzes the dynamic and static real option characteristics of the managerial right,expounds the formation and evolution mechanism of the managerial right value of scenic spots,and makes a national scenic spot of GuanZhai Mountain as example,preliminary analyzing the value assessment of managerial right based on the perspective of real options.Based on the abovementioned analysis,the paper draws the following conclusions:( 1) The managerial right value of scenic spots is a kind of property value relying on tourism resources,and it is essence of the value evaluation that capitalizing the right value of tourism resources development.( 2) With the perspective of property right,the managerial right of scenic spot can be regarded as a kind of multiphase nested real option,and tourism resources are the underlying assets.( 3) The performance of option value of managerial right is determined by the flexibility which increases or compensate the investor`s profit,the managerial right value of scenic spot based on the real option value is manifested as the difference between the expected tourism income and investment cost.( 4) The real option characteristics of managerial authority is a dynamic process,the option value of each phase will first increase to a maximum value and then decrease to zero when the managerial right is over.( 5) The method by introducing real option is better than Income Capitalization Approach,which is more objective,more realistic and the evaluation results is also more reference.( 6) Using the option value assessment model of managerial right based on the condition of single option,and taking the GuanZhai Mountain for example,we calculate the managerial right value of GuanZhai Mountain,The result of the calculation is 207.5 million Yuan,the option value of managerial right of GuanZhai Mountain is 112.5 million Yuan.This result is 25.5 million Yuan more than the results( 182 million Yuan) calculated by traditional methods.Furthermore,the paper validates the application value of real option theory in the assessment of managerial right value of the scenic spot under uncertainty with a comparative study with the existing assessment methods( Travel Cost Method,Contingent Valuation Method and Income Capitalization Approach).In addition,we discuss the problem of the fluctuation of the underlying asset price of managerial right of scenic spots,and provide some comments.What's more,this study only puts emphasis on the theoretical study and fundamental analysis,empirical assessment modeling remains to be further studied.In the development process of the Real Option Theory,the theory itself still exist some difficulties and challenges in the theory and practice research.To make the theory be a more applicable and accurate method of the value evaluation of managerial right and investment analysis tools,we still need to continue to improve and perfect the theory

中央银行履行金融稳定职能：国外实践和中国借鉴

本文通过对国外(主要是OECD国家)中央银行履行金融稳定职能中有关目标定位、法律基础、实施工具和部门协作等问题的比较研究,认为中国当前在金融稳定的理论研究和实际操作中应重视四个问题：一是货币政策职能优先于金融稳定职能,二是履行金融稳定职责应保留一定的弹性空间,三是要考虑建立市场化风险补偿的长效机制,四是央行与财政部之间应建立规范有序的金融风险处置工作机制

Liquid Sloshing in Partially Filled Capsule Storage Tank Undergoing Gravity Reduction to Low/Micro-Gravity Condition

Liquid sloshing in storage tanks is of critical concern for the fluid management in space. In the present study, oscillation of liquid in a partially filled capsule storage tank was numerically studied using the volume of fluid method and taking into account the dynamic contact angle. The filling ratios of tank ranging from 10% to 90% and the gravity levels of 10(-3) g(0)and 0 g(0)were considered as the controlling variables. The temporal evolution of characteristic points of free surface and the law of oscillation frequencies were analyzed. The results show that for different filling ratios, the oscillations of free surfaces present different damping types, in which the small and large filling ratios correspond to the underdamping and the intermediate filling ratios to the critical damping. The present study provides fundamental insights into the free surface oscillations depending on the filling ratios and residual gravity level, which is useful for the corresponding utilization in space