技術分析與組合預測指標在台灣股市獲利能力之探討

　　本論文主要在探討以移動平均法則為基礎的簡單技術分析指標，以及時間序列模型在台灣股票市場是否具有獲利能力，研究期間為1987/01/01-2006/12/31共20年的樣本期間。我們發現只有使用(1,50,0)和(1,50,0.01) 這兩個移動平均交易法則時才有顯著的報酬；並以AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M作為時間序列的預測模型。研究發現在股價上漲的時候，技術分析指標的確有較好的預測能力；而在股價下跌時，利用時間序列模型有較佳的獲利能力。因為技術分析指標與時間序列模型分別捕捉到不同的資訊，將兩預測工具結合在一起應該可以得到一個更好的組合預測指標。本文的實證研究發現此一組合預測指標，不管是在多頭或空頭期間時，都可以比使用單一分析工具獲得更高報酬

The Impact of Falls and Fear of Falling on Health-Related Quality of Life in Taiwanese Elderly=台灣老人跌倒與害怕跌倒對健康相關生活品質的衝擊

This study aimed to investigate the relationship among falls , fear of falling (FOF), and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in elderly people living in the community. The study was a community-based surveillance with residents aged 65 or over in Taipei, Taiwan. Data were collected in face-to- face interviews. Of the 4,056 participants, the prevalence of falls was 13.8% and the prevalence of FOF among women (62 .6 %) was significantly higher than that among men (46.2%). Adjusted by covariate factors, fear of falling was identified as a major factor related to HRQOL in the elderly and should be emphasized to assist the improvement of HRQOL in geriatrics

The Incidence, Risk Factors and Consequences of Falling Injury among the Community Elderly in Shihpai, Taiwan=台灣石牌社區老人跌傷發生率危險因子及 其後果

Background and aims: Falls causing injuries among older people and the consequences of those injuries are of increasing concern to public health practitioners. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence, characteristics and risk factors of fall injuries among the community- dwelling elderly in Shihpai, Taiwan; the impact on quality of life and health service utilization was also comprehensively studied. Methods: 1361 community-dwelling elderly who had been enrolled in the Shihpai eye study (1999 -2000) were included. Subjects were interviewed and examined by trained interviewers, and data such as demographics, medical conditions, blood pressure, ophthalmic examination, fall history and quality of life ( SF-36) were collected. Chi -square tests, analyses of covariance and multiple logistic regressions were performed as the main statistical methods. Results: The mean age of the participants was 72.2 (range, 65-91) years old. 16.3% of the elderly persons interviewed had experienced at least one fall; among those, up to 50% had suffered mild injuries, and the incidence of remarkable injury was 27.6%. There were no significant differences in the location or time of falling, but there were different risk factors and consequences in injury severity. Fallers with remarkable injuries had a higher incidence of hospitalization and a greater fear of falling. No statistically significant decline in quality of life with increasing severity of falling injury was identified after a 12-month follow-up period. Conclusions: Gender, visual impairment and orthostatic hypotension were identified as the major risk factors of fall injuries in the elderly. These factors should be emphasized in order to reduce fall injuries in geriatrics