A Study on China Economy Growth Issue from Low Carbon Perspective

保证经济增长一直是中国宏观经济运行的核心目标。2011年中国人均GDP已经超过4000美元，中国正处在跨越“中等收入陷阱”的关键时期。虽然城市化进程可以成为现阶段推动经济增长的主要动力，但是产业结构重工化、能源需求刚性增长、能源效率偏低以及能源结构以煤为主等阶段性特征将成为当前经济增长过程中很难回避的问题。 若没有与二氧化碳排放相关的气候问题，中国经济增长的阶段性问题可能将同历史上发达国家经历的过程相似。然而，二十一世纪第一个十年，中国二氧化碳排放量增长超过了一倍，中国已经成为全球第一大二氧化碳排放国。在应对全球气候变暖的问题上，中国以无可争议的排放增量首当其冲。现阶段中国面临着二氧化碳减排...Ensuring a fast economic growth plays a critical part in China’s macroeconomic area. In 2011, China’s per capita GDP was more than 4000 US dollars. China is in the period to leap over the “middle-income trap”. Although the urbanization process could be a major factor to promote economic growth, the urbanization stage characteristics such as heavy industry structure, rigid energy demand growth, rel...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院中国能源经济研究中心_能源经济学学号：3132008015030

广义虚拟经济视角下中国城市化与能源消费研究

广义虚拟经济的核心内容是虚拟价值。随着中国城市化建设的不断推进,居民能源需求快速增长。快速的城市化进程对能源消费产生了两方面广义虚拟性的价值影响。一是代际公平性问题,即当代人化石能源消费的增加导致了可供后代人消费的资源减少。二是生态外部性问题,即大量的化石能源消费对城市环境与生态带来了严重影响。本文依据广义虚拟经济的理论,探讨了城市化发展与化石能源消费的代际公平性与生态外部性等虚拟价值问题,扩展了对能源问题的研究框架和分析思路,并提出广义虚拟经济视角下的解决对策。广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目[项目编号:GX2014-1020(M)

城市规模、空间集聚与电力强度

中国仍处在快速城市化的过程中,城市人口、工业及其他因素共同决定着不同的城市规模和产业结构,进而影响着一个城市的电力强度水平。本文选取了2003—2013年我国31个省级行政区267个地级市相关数据,通过建立动态面板模型进行回归分析。研究结果表明,城市规模与电力强度之间存在倒U型的非线性关系,即随着城市规模的扩大电力强度出现先上升后下降的现象。为了进一步探索城市规模对电力强度的影响机制,本文引入空间集聚的概念,同时构建了一个用来反映省级行政区内部空间集聚水平的重要指标——空间基尼系数。本文利用相关数据对空间基尼系数进行计算,并将其纳入模型进行回归分析。研究结果发现,空间集聚对电力强度确实具有一定程度的负向影响。本文研究结论从优化电力强度的视角,探讨了城市电力强度最优条件下的合理城市规模,并为我国城市化过程中建设现代化的大型城市提供了实践参考与决策支持。国家自然科学基金面上项目“异质性能效感知与居民能源补贴——结构化模型与实证分析”(批准号:71673230)；国家自然科学基金青年项目“能源价格冲击对宏观经济的影响机制研究——基于开放经济下多部门动态随机一般均衡模型分析”(批准号:71303199)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(批准号:20720151039,20720151026)的资助

The Calculation of Ecological Value and Intergenerational Compensation of Fossil Energy in the Chinese “New Normal”Economy

经济"新常态"对经济增速与结构优化提出了新要求,也为缓解能源压力与改善生态环境提供了契机。本文采用生态足迹模型核算了1991—2013年中国化石能源生态价值补偿,结合"新常态"经济特征,预测了化石能源生态足迹的变化轨迹并对代际间化石能源生态价值补偿进行了责任划分。结果显示,在放缓经济增速和约束能源下,中国化石能源生态价值补偿存在增速降低甚至总额下行的可能,预期在2032年左右能够达到峰值,与中国承诺CO2峰值的时间接近。靠前代际负更多责任的分配方式更符合公平与效率的要求,不仅可以减轻后代人的补偿压力,同时也可以兼顾到当代人的经济发展与能源技术进步。The"New Normal"economy puts forward new requirements to economic growth and structural optimization,and also provides an opportunity for easing energy pressure and improving ecological environment. Using the ecological footprint model,this paper accounts the ecological value compensation of fossil energy in China from 1991 to 2013,and combined with the characteristics of"New Normal"economy,predicts the trajectory of the fossil energy ecological footprint and distributes the intergenerational responsibility of ecological value compensation of fossil energy. The research result shows that under the slowdown in economic growth and the constraints in energy structure,it is possible that the growth and total amount of ecological value compensation of fossil energy would be reduced,and the total amount reach the peak near2032,which is close to peak time of carbon dioxide committed by China. The distribution mode of former generation taking more responsibility accords more with the requirements of fairness and efficiency,which can not only ease the pressure on the compensation of future generations,but also take account of contemporary economic development and the progress of energy technology.教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“化石能源定价与税费改革及其宏观影响—基于生态价值与代际补偿视角”(13YJC790123);; 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“能源价格冲击对宏观经济的影响机制研究—基于开放经济下多部门动态随机一般均衡模型分析”(71303199);; 福建省自然科学基金面上项目“福建省推动生态文明建设的驱动机制研究”(2014J01269);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“要素配置效率与市场化改革研究”(20720151026)的资

交通基础设施与城市空气污染——来自中国的经验证据

为了探寻现阶段加强交通基础设施能否提升城市空气质量,本文构建理论模型分析了居民效用、交通基础设施与空气污染的相互作用机理,并运用2000—2012年83个城市的面板数据进行实证研究。为控制内生性问题,本文采取反映样本城市地形特征的城市坡度指数作为城市交通基础设施的工具变量,估计了交通基础设施对城市空气质量的影响。研究发现:增加交通基础设施投资能够改善城市空气质量;通过工具变量缓解内生性偏误后,改善作用更加明显,且大于城市机动车保有量增加对空气污染的边际影响;与道路投资相比,道路面积的增长对空气质量的改善效应更好。本文的政策启示是:现阶段城市建设应该注重基础设施建设与生态环境保护并举,通过交通基础设施的供给侧角度,寻找城市空气污染难题的解决思路,实现城市生态文明建设的平衡与充分发展

公共产品虚拟价值的影响因素分析及核算:以空气污染为例

广义虚拟经济是指同时满足人的生理需求和心理需求并以心理需求为主导,以及只满足人的心理需求的经济的总和。中国城市化和现代化进程的不断推进,带来的不仅仅是持续高效的经济增长,还有一系列的环境问题,其中空气污染最为严峻和突出。清洁的空气是公共产品,不具有价格,在广义虚拟经济学下呈现出虚拟价值的形态。本文通过深入分析虚拟价值的内涵,构建清洁空气虚拟价值影响因素的理论框架并作出相应假设,最后进行实证分析,得出结论并提出治理空气污染的解决措施。广义虚拟经济专项资助项目[项目编号:GX2014-1020(M)

中国经济变革与能源和环境政策——首届中国能源与环境经济学者论坛综述

中国经济发展进入了新常态阶段,能源与环境在绿色发展议题中的关键作用愈加明显,一系列粗放发展模式下积累的能源与环境问题亟待解决。近几年在国家发展的重大需求引领下,能源与环境经济学科得到了长足发展。为科学解释现阶段中国能源约束与环境污染等现实经济现象,探讨适应中国经济绿色低碳发展的宏观经济政策与产业调整路线,越来越多的专家学者关注并从事中国能源与环境经济的研究工作。在此背景下,2017年5月20—21日,首届中国能源与环境经

中国清洁低碳转型的能源环境政策选择——第二届中国能源与环境经济学者论坛综述

为科学解释现阶段中国能源约束与产能过剩、环境污染与温室气体排放等现实经济现象,探讨适应中国经济清洁低碳发展的经济政策、产业政策以及能源环境政策,越来越多的专家学者开始关注并从事于中国能源与环境经济研究。在此背景下,2018年5月19—20日,第二届中国能源与环境经济学者论坛在中国人民大学隆重召开。本届论坛由中国社会科学院经济研究所《经济研究》编辑部、厦门大学中国能源政策研究院、中国人民大学经济学院、北京大学国家资源经济研究中

Does the RBT Reform Achieve the Twin Objectives of Efficiency and Equity?

2012年7月居民生活用电阶梯式递增电价改革方案在全国范围正式实施。阶梯电价改革主要是为了促进资源的合理分配与利用,具有提高效率并保障公平的双重目标。本文基于CrECS九省市城乡居民能源消费的实地调研数据,分别采用家庭电力消费离散选择模型与价差法,针对阶梯电价机制在提高用电效率、促进补贴公平两个方面的执行效果进行研究。结论显示,现行改革方案对家庭用电的节能激励是有效的,而且减少了交叉补贴的扭曲。但家庭对电价的敏感程度受多种因素影响,未来政府需要对阶梯的拐点电量以及价格幅度进行更加灵活精细的设计,并提供辅助政策的配套,以进一步推进阶梯电价以及其他居民资源类产品定价机制的建立与完善。The reform of tiered pricing for household electricity(TPHE) in China was implemented nationwide in July 2012.In order to design a reasonable residential electricity pricing mechanism,the policy makers not only need to stimulate the potential for residential electricity-saving,but also need to phase out untargeted energy subsithes that favor the rich rather than the poor.To summarize,efficiency and equity are the twin objects for reforming residential electricity pricing in China.Using the micro household-level data of nine provinces from China's Residential Energy Consumption Survey(CRECS),this paper evaluates the efficiency of the TPHE by building the household electricity consumption discrete choice(HECDC) model and examines the equity of redistribution mechanism of electricity subsithes by applying the price-gap approach.The factors of household income,electricity price,the planned behavior and family demographic variables significantly impact household electricity consumption behavior.The main results of the HECDC model are represented as follows.(1) Household income has a negative impact on energy saving,implying that there are lower probabilities for high-income households to save energy.(2) Electricity price has a positive impact on household energy saving.The larger increases in the electricity price,the greater probabilities for households to save energy.(3) Household past energy-saving behavior exerts a strong influence on the current or future energy consumption.(4) Households tend to save electricity when their monthly electricity consumption bunches at kink points.The designs of kink points and the consumed electricity amount between two tiers exert a huge influence on the energy-efficient behavior and probability of household electricity saving.In conclusion,from the results above,the TPHE has improved the efficiency by promoting household electricity conservation.Furthermore,in order to examine the impacts of the TPHE on the reallocation of cross-subsithes,this paper divides samples into three groups by the income level.Under the scheme of TPHE,the average electricity expenditure of surveyed households raised 7.42 CNY/month,but the high-income group was affected the most by the TPHE,of which the electricity expenditure increased 20.84 CNY/month.It indicates that the impacts on electricity expenditure are slight for most income groups except the high-income group.The household electricity consumption and expenditure have changed under the mechanism of TPHE,resulting in the cross-subsidization change and reallocation of subsidy.Applying the price-gap approach,this paper estimates that the decreased amount of subsidy after the implementation of the TPHE was 10861 CNY/month.The average reduction of subsidy was 10.27 CNY/month/household.and the average reduction rate was 6.21%.Results demonstrate that the TPHE narrowed the electricity price gap between the industrial sector and the residential sector and thus reduced the overall electricity subsidy scale.However,the pricing mechanism hasn't played its full potential to achieve the target of equity.The pricing mechanism needs to be further modified to effectively reallocate subsithes.Based on the empirical analysis,some policy implications are drawn in this paper.First,it is very important to design kink points and to determine the amount of electricity of each tier,because a nonlinear relationship exists between electricity consumption and electricity expenditure when the amount of consumed electricity bunches at kink points.Second,the uniform electricity-pricing scheme for urban and rural areas in China needs to be modified.Considering the differences of electricity consumption in habits and manners between urban and rural residents,the Chinese government should make distinct energy policies for urban and rural areas and establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism to achieve the goal of targeted subsithes.Third,the current pricing mechanism should be improved to be more operational and efficient.In order to reduce the negative impacts caused by the energy price reform,the government is suggested to phase out electricity subsithes gradually because low-income households are still sensitive to energy price changes.国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“能源价格冲击对宏观经济的影响机制研究——基于开放经济下多部门动态随机一般均衡模型分析”(71303199); 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“化石能源定价与税费改革及宏观影响——基于生态价值与代际补偿视角”(13YJC790123); 福建省软科学项目“城镇化进程中资源开发与生态可持续发展机制研究”(2014R0088

中国全要素生产率重估——ACF模型中弹性估计改进和实证

索洛余额法、随机前沿生产函数法以及数据包络分析方法都没有解决函数的内生性和模型参数的时变性问题,ACF方法克服了这些局限性,对全要素生产率的测度更加准确。本文推导了参数的内生性和时变性问题,基于ACF模型提出了我国的时变参数估计方法,并对我国1990-2017年28个省份的全要素生产率进行重估。研究结果表明,ACF方法对全要素生产率的测度更加准确。从全国来看,资本投入增长对经济增长的贡献度最大,TFP增长对我国经济增长的贡献度正在逐渐下降,劳动投入对经济增长的贡献度相对较弱波动大。分地区来看,各地区的TFP平均水平有所回落,近年来东北地区的TFP增长率水平最低,2012-2017年均为负值。同时,东北地区的劳动力流失情况较为严重。国家社会科学基金青年项目“消费信心指数偏差及其调整研究”(17CTJ007)的资