DEMOGRAPHISCHE GRUNDMERKMALE DER VERTRIEBENEN AUS DEM OSTEN KROATlENS

Although the Croatian East, throughout its long history, has never been an integral part of Serbia, and Serbs have never constituted the largest ethnic group in total population, this part of Croatia became the scene of aggression of Great Serbia, causing great suffering and tremendous devastation. Tens thousand of people were forced into exile; mostly Croats, but also Hungarians, Ruthenians, Ukrainians, Slovaks, and even a small number of Serbs. During the offensives, and particularly in the course of a five-year occupation, Serbian aggressor by ethnic cleansing carried out regional and demographic occupation. According to the records of July 1,1996, in Croatia were 210,341 displaced persons. The displaced from the Croatian East accounted for 39.6% (83,322 persons), and by its total number made up the majority of the Croatian displaced population. Great-Serbian aggressor has occupied 79% of the settlements in the Croatian East and expelled from them almost half of the total pre-war population (43.1 %), mostly Croats (75,556 persons), Hungarians (3,788), Serbs (1,437), Ruthenians and Ukrainians (931), and other nationalities (1,610). These data reveaJ that the Croatian East has been completelyethnically cleansed of the Croats and for the most part of other non-Serbian population previously inhabiting the area. Other socio-demographic characteristics of the displaced population from the Croatian East mostly do not differ from those established by the 1991 census, which means that renewal and development of the area cannot be guaranteed or accomplished without systematic measures of the state in order to encourage social and economic revitalisation of the region.Premda hrvatski istok nikada u svojoj dugoj i bogatoj povijesti nije bio sastavnim dijelom srpske države niti su Srbi ikada imali većinu u ukupnom stanovništvu, ovaj je dio hrvatske države bio poprištem velikosrpske agresije, koja je uzrokovala velike žrtve, izazvala golema materijalna razaranja te natjerala u progonstvo desetke tisuća ljudi, najviše Hrvata, ali i Mađara, Rusina, Ukrajinaca, Slovaka, pa čak i mali broj Srba. Tijekom ratnih sukoba, a posebice tijekom petogodišnjeg zaposjednuća, srpski je agresor proveo etničko čišćenje dijela hrvatskog istoka i pritom izvršio njegovu prostornu i demografsku okupaciju. U Hrvatskoj se, prema stanju od 1. srpnja 1996., nalazilo 210341 prognanika. Od tog je broja čak 39,6% (83 322 osobe) bilo prognanika s hrvatskog istoka, koji po svojemu ukupnom broju najviše sudjeluju u hrvatskoj prognaničkoj populaciji. Velikosrpski je agresor okupirao 79% naselja hrvatskog istoka i iz njih protjerao gotovo polovicu prije ratnog broja stanovnika (43,1%), najvećma Hrvata (75 556 osoba), potom Mađara (3 788), Srba (1 437), Rusina i Ukrajinaca (931) te ostalih (1 610). To znači da je hrvatski istok etnički gotovo u potpunosti očišćen od Hrvata i velikim dijelom od drugog nesrpskog pučanstva toga kraja. Ostale sociodemografske značajke istočnohrvatske prognaničke populacije uglavnom ne odudaraju od njihovih značajki ustanovljenih posljednjim popisom stanovništva 1991., što znači da se obnova i svekoliki razvoj prostora ne mogu jamčiti niti zamisliti bez sustavnih i poticajnih državnih mjera za društvenom i gospodarstvenom revitalizacijom prostora.ObWOhl der Ostteil Kroatiens in seiner langen und ereignisreichen Geschichte nie zu Serbien geh6rt hat und die Serben in der Gesamtbevčilkerung nie in der Mehrzahl waren, wurde dieser Landesteil des kroatischen Staates Schauplatz der gror..serbischen Aggression. Die Folge davon waren zahllose Opfer, riesige Sachschaden und Tausende von Vertriebenen, grčir..tenteils Kroaten, aber auch Ungarn, Russinen, Ukrainer, Slowaken und sogar eine geringe Zahl von Serben. Im Laufe der Kampfhandlungen, insbesondere aber wahrend der fOnfjahrigen Okkupation fOhrte der serbische Aggressor die ethnische Sauberung eines Teils des kroatischen Ostens durch und unterjochte das Land sowohl raumlich als auch demographisch. Nach dem Stand vom 1. Juli 1996 befanden sich in Kroatien 210.341 Vertriebene. Davon stammten sogar 39,6% (83.322 Personen) aus Ostkroatien; es war dies zugleich die grčir..te Gruppe innerhalb der Population der kroatischen Vertriebenen. Die gror..serbischen Aggressoren besetzten 79% der ostkroatischen Dčirfer und Ortschaften und vertrieben daraus fast die Haltte der bis zum Krieg dort lebenden Einwohner (43,1%), zumeist Kroaten (75.556 Personen), aber auch Ungarn (3788 Personen), Serben (1437 Personen), Russinen und Ukrainer (931 Personen) und andere (1610 Personen). Das bedeutet, dass der Ostteil des Landes eine fast vollkommene ethnische Sauberung von Kroaten, grčir..tenteils aber auch von anderen, nichtserbischen Bevčilkerungsteilen erfahren hat. Die Obrigen soziodemographischen Merkmale der ostkroatischen Vertriebenen weichen, im Grofšen und Ganzen, von den in der letzten Volkszahlung aus dem Jahre 1991 ermittelten Merkmalen nicht ab. Das bedeutet, dass derWiederaufbau und die umfassende Entwicklung dieses Raums ohne systematische und stimulierende Staatsmar..- nahmen zur gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Revitalisierung weder gesichert werden kčinnen noch aber denkbar sind

FRANJO TUĐMAN AND DEMOGRAPHIC REVITALIZATION / SUSTAINABILITY OF CROATIA

According to a number of relevant demographic and statistical indicators, Croatia is in a deep demographic crisis in all aspects of demographic dynamics and structural-demographic development. Total depopulation, natural decline, negative migration balance, demographic aging, and spatial polarization of the population – are fundamental long-term and current demographic trends and processes that, thanks to available data from census, vital and migration statistics can be monitored almost continuously from the middle of last century until today. The current demographic picture of Croatia is marked by natural and mechanical population losses, which means more deaths from birth and more emigration than immigration, with significantly disturbed relations between large (functional) age groups that threaten further collapse of bio reproductive potential and economic activity of the population. Croatian demographers warned of this circumstance during socialist Yugoslavia, especially after reaching independence in 1991. In their research, they were especially committed to the design and implementation of active and stimulating population policies, which had a certain impact in the formation of some decisions and documents of Croatian state policy during the 1990s. In this sense, it is scientifically relevant to valorize Dr. Tuđman’s attitude towards Croatian demographic issues, because demographic challenges have been and still are in significant discrepancy with socially desirable demographic pro-cesses and trends as key factors in the development and progress of the Croatian state and society, especially from 1991 and onwards. Therefore, in the context of Tuđman’s work as a politician (president of the Croatian Democratic Union from 1989 to 1999) and statesman (president of the Republic of Croatia from 1990 to 1999), but also as a scientist and public figure (director of the Institute for the History of the Labor Movement from 1961 to 1967) it is useful to investigate whether and to what extent there is a consistent attitude towards the demographic situation and problems of Croatia and, accordingly, whether we find the issue of Croatian demography at the center or on the margins of interest in his public work

Die Folgen des serbischen Aggressionskriegs als Vorgabe für den Wiederaufbau Vukovars

Grad Vukovar je uslijed srbijanske oružane agresije, tijekom višemjesečnih napada i opsade, a potom i šestogodišnje okupacije, pretrpio vrlo velika ratna stradanja u ljudstvu i materijalna razaranja na svim područjima gospodarskoga i društvenoga života i rada njegovih žitelja. Brojne i složene ratne posljedice izrazito su negativna determinanta poslijeratne (mirnodopske) obnove i revitalizacije demografske, društvene i ekonomske slike Vukovara. Više tisuća poginulih, dvadesetak tisuća prognanih, desetak milijardi kuna ratnih šteta na stambenim objektima te objektima gospodarske, komunalne i prometne infrastrukture – samo su grubi brojčani pokazatelji veličine i strukture posljedica srbijanske oružane agresije na Grad Vukovar. Unatoč ratnim posljedicama, Grad Vukovar je usprkos stradanjima i razaranjima ipak zadržao većinu svojih prometno-geografskih oblika na kojima se može, uz odgovarajuću strategiju društvenoga, gospodarskoga i prostornoga razvoja, temeljiti napredak grada i njegova okolnoga prostora.The City of Vukovar has, due to Serbian aggression during many months of attacks and siege and throughout the six-year period of occupation, suffered greatly regarding both human losses and material damages in all spheres of its citizens’ economic and social lives. The numerous and complex effects of the war represent an extremely negative determinant of postwar (peaceful) reconstruction and revitalisation of the demographic, social and economic picture of Vukovar. Thousands of people killed, some twenty thousand displaced persons and ten billion kuna worth of war damages in housing units, economic, communal and transport infrastructure – are only rough numerical indicators of the size and structure of the consequences caused by Serbian military aggression against Vukovar. Despite the aftermath of war, all the casualties and destruction, the City of Vukovar has managed to retain most of its transport and geographic features based on which, if given the right strategy of social, economic and spatial development, the city and its surroundings could prosper.Die Stadt Vukovar erlitt im serbischen Aggressionskrieg, als sie monatelang belagert wurde, unter Artilleriebschuss lag und für sechs Jahre okkupiert wurde, schwerwiegende Zerstörungen: Viele Menschen starben und es entstanden große Sachschäden in allen Bereichen des wirtschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Lebens. Die zahlreichen und komplexen Kriegsfolgen sind eine ausgesprochen negative Determinante im Wiederaufbau und in der Revitalisierung der demografischen, gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Struktur Vukovars in der Nachkriegszeit. Mehrere Tausend Tote, mehr als 20000 Vertriebene, Sachschäden in Höhe von über 10 Mrd. Kuna an Wohn- und Wirtschaftsgebäuden sowie Objekten der Kommunal- und Verkehrsinfrastruktur – dies die grob umrissenen zahlenmäßigen Indikatoren zu Ausmaß und Beschaffenheit der auf die serbische Aggression zurückgehenden Folgen für die Stadt. Trotz der Kriegsschäden ist ihre verkehrsmäßige und geografische Grundstruktur jedoch größtenteils erhalten geblieben und kann, unter Anwendung einer angemessenen Strategie zur gesellschaftlichen, wirtschaftlichen und räumlichen Entwicklung, als Grundlage für den Fortschritt Vukovars und seines unmittelbaren Umfeldes dienen

Demographic Frame and Development of Family Structure of the Croatian Population from 1971-2001

U ovome su prilogu istraživani obiteljska struktura stanovništva Hrvatske te promjene u njezinom razvoju u posljednjih trideset godina (1971. – 2001.). U tom smislu sažeto su vrednovani i najvažniji demografski i društveno-gospodarski činitelji promjena u obiteljskoj slici. Ustanovljena je uzročno-posljedična povezanost demografskog razvoja Hrvatske i promjena u obiteljskom sastavu te kretanju nupcijaliteta i divorcijaliteta. Suvremena se obitelj znatno razlikuje od tradicionalne, ne samo po svojemu mjestu u društvu, nego i po svojoj unutarnjoj strukturi i odnosima, kao i po demografskim obilježjima. Procesi industrijalizacije, urbanizacije, deagrarizacije, deruralizacije, modernizacije i drugi, umnogome su promijenili mjesto, ulogu i važnost braka i obitelji u Hrvatskoj. Obitelj sve više postaje nepoželjna, ili barem neatraktivna društvena institucija. Zanemaruje se roditeljska uloga braka i obitelji. Na poželjnosti dobivaju izvanbračne zajednice, koje očito osiguravaju dovoljno osobne slobode partnerima radi zadovoljena njihovih profesionalnih ili drugih potreba. Demografski kontekst razvoja obiteljske strukture stanovništva Hrvatske postaje sve nepovoljniji. U tom smislu na osobit način trebamo apostrofirati dva dugoročna i globalna demografska procesa izrazito depopulacijskih značajki – dugoročni ubrzani pad nataliteta i demografsko starenje. To su najakutniji i najaktualniji demografski problemi Hrvatske danas, koji izravno impliciraju poremećaje u razvoju obiteljske slike hrvatskoga stanovništva. Pad broja sklopljenih brakova, porast broja izvanbračnih zajednica, porast udjela samohranih majki i očeva u obiteljskoj strukturi te sve izraženiji porast broja djece rođene izvan braka, ističu nužnost koncipiranja i provedbe različitih jedinstvenih mjera populacijske i obiteljske politike (strategije) koje će voditi računa o suvremenim procesima u razvoju obiteljske slike hrvatskoga stanovništva.The paper deals with the investigation on the family structure of the Croatian population and changes in its development over the past thirty years (1971–2001). The most important demographic and socio-economic factors that lead to changes in the family structure were summarized and evaluated. The interrelation of cause and effect between the demographic development of Croatia and the changes in the family composition as well as the trends of nuptiality and divorce-rate was established. The contemporary family differs significantly from the traditional one not only by its place in society but also by its inner structure and relationship as well as demographic features. The processes of industrialization, urbanization, deagrarization, deruralization, modernization and others, have greatly changed the place, role and importance of marriage and family in Croatia. The family is becoming more undesirable or at least an unattractive social institution. The parental role in marriage and in family has been neglected. More favourable are extramarital couples, who obviously ensure enough personal freedom to both of partners to satisfy their own professional and other needs. The demographic context of development in the family structure of the Croatian population is becoming all the more unfavourable. In view of this, two long-term and global demographic processes concerning depopulation indicators should be emphasized: long-term fast decrease of birth-rate and demographic aging. These are the most acute and current demographic problems in Croatia today, which directly implies disturbance in the development of the family structure of the Croatian population. The decrease in the number of marriages, increase in the number of extramarital couples, increase in the number of single mothers and fathers in the family structure and the great significance in the increase in the number of children born out of wedlock, exemplify the necessity to create and carry out different unique measures of population and family politics (strategies) which will follow the contemporary processes in the family development of the Croatian population

Prisilne migracije i etničke promjene u Hrvatskoj između 1991. i 2001. godine

U ovome je prilogu, na temelju dostupnih demostatističkih izvora i popisa stanovništva, raščlanjen i prikazan utjecaj prisilnih migracijskih gibanja stanovništva Hrvatske na promjene etničke slike naseljenosti između 1991. i 2001. godine. U tom kontekstu analizirani su prognanički, izbjeglički, raseljenički, iseljenički i povratnički tijekovi stanovništva, koji su svojim pretežnim dijelom posljedica srbijanske agresije na Hrvatsku i Bosnu i Hercegovinu. U prilogu je iznesena usporedna raščlamba etničke strukture stanovništva Hrvatske prema popisima 1991. i 2001. godine. Također je istaknut dominantan utjecaj prisilnih migracija stanovništva induciranih ratom, ne samo na ukupan demografski razvoj Hrvatske, nego i na razvoj njezine etničke slike naseljenosti

Demographic Extinction of Eastern Croatia

Predmet istraživanja u ovom radu je ukupno (opće) kretanje stanovništva triju županija hrvatskoga istoka (Brodsko-posavska, Osječko-baranjska i Vukovarsko-srijemska) tijekom posljednjega međupopisnoga razdoblja (2001.-2011.). Cilj istraživanja je utvrditi dosegnutu razinu ukupne depopulacije, prirodnoga pada i negativne migracijske bilance te odrediti tip intenziteta međupopisne promjene broja stanovnika, kao i tip općeg kretanja stanovništva. Suvremena demografska slika promatranog prostora očekivani je odraz dugoročnog i sinergijskog/kumulativnog djelovanja različitih demografskih i nedemografskih čimbenika kretanja i razvoja stanovništva, od kojih su mnogi imali remetilačke učinke, kako na demografski, tako i na društveno-gospodarski razvoj/napredak hrvatskoga istoka. Provedena analiza nedvojbeno je pokazala da u promatranom razdoblju županije hrvatskoga istoka gube stanovništvo i prirodnim i mehaničkim putem, tj. većim umiranjem od rađanja i brojnijim iseljavanjem od doseljavanja. Prema konceptu/kriteriju „ukupnog“ stanovništva, kako je analiza pokazala, ukupna je depopulacija dominantno determinirana negativnom migracijskom bilancom, a prema konceptu/kriteriju „prisutnog“ stanovništva, njegovim prirodnim padom. Brojne su i uglavnom dugoročne demografske, društvene i gospodarske posljedice depopulacije i demografskog izumiranja. Kada su u pitanju dugoročni demografski učinci depopulacije i demografskog izumiranja, oni se najjasnije ističu u biološkom sastavu stanovništva. Najvažniji proces u razvoju biološke strukture stanovništva hrvatskoga istoka jest demografsko starenje.The topic of this research is overall (general) population change for three Eastern Croatian counties (Brodsko-posavska, Osječko-baranjska, Vukovarsko-srijemska) for the period between two population censuses (2001—2011). The aim is to determine achieved level of overall depopulation, natural decrease, and negative migration balance, same as the intensity type of population change in the period between two population censuses and the type of general population change. Contemporary demographics of the studied area however is an expected outcome of long-term and synergic/cumulative effects of various demographic and non-demographic factors of population change and development, out of which many had disruptive effects both on the demography and socio-economic development/progress of Eastern Croatia. Conducted analysis undoubtingly indicates that in the studied period Croatian Eastern counties are losing population due to natural and mechanical depopulation, namely, bigger mortality than natality and more extensive emigration than immigration. According to the flgeneral« population concept/criterion, based on the conducted analysis, the overall depopulation is predominantly determined by negative migration balance, and according to the flpresent« population concept/criterion by natural population decrease. Therefore, there are numerous, mainly long-term, demographic, social and economic consequences of depopulation and demographic extinction. The one with greatest impact as a long-term demographic effect of depopulation and demographic extinction is a biological composition of the population, thereby, the most important process in the development of the biological population composition of the Croatian East is demographic aging

Mirna reintegracija hrvatskog Podunavlja, 1996. – 2016.

Jesu li rezultati mirne reintegracije koje danas baštinimo opravdali očekivanja svih koji su u taj proces, na različitim razinama odlučivanja i provedbe, bili uključeni? Je li proces nadvladao sve izazove ili nam je u naslijeđe ostavio prijepore i negativne političke i društvene posljedice? Je li procesom mirne reintegracije uspostavljeno stanje trajnoga ili tek privremenoga mira? Je li mir uspostavljen mirnom reintegracijom samo odsustvo rata ili on ipak ima dublje, složenije i trajnije društveno značenje