Empirical analysis over trade advantage of Turkey in the light of international costs

06.03.2018 tarihli ve 30352 sayılı Resmi Gazetede yayımlanan “Yükseköğretim Kanunu İle Bazı Kanun Ve Kanun Hükmünde Kararnamelerde Değişiklik Yapılması Hakkında Kanun” ile 18.06.2018 tarihli “Lisansüstü Tezlerin Elektronik Ortamda Toplanması, Düzenlenmesi ve Erişime Açılmasına İlişkin Yönerge” gereğince tam metin erişime açılmıştır.Ülkelerin iktisadi anlamda kendi kendilerine yetememesi ve uzmanlaşarak daha verimli üretime yönelmesi uluslararası ticaretin önemini giderek artırmaktadır. Son otuz yılda, uluslararası ticaret küresel hasıla düzeyinden daha hızlı büyümektedir. Dünya Ticaret Örgütü'nün (DTÖ) 2001 Dünya Ticaret Raporu'na göre 1980'den bu yana 21. yüzyılın başına kadar dünya ticareti, yaklaşık olarak dünya üretim büyümesinden iki kat daha hızlı büyümüştür. Ayrıca, yükselen piyasa ekonomileri dünya ticaretindeki paylarını gün geçtikçe artırmaktadır vetoplam küresel ihracattaki payları hemen hemen %50 düzeyine ulaşmıştır. Gelişen ekonomiler arasında bulunan Türkiye, 2023 itibariyle, uluslararası ticaretteki payını %1.5'e çıkarmayı ve dünyada ilk 10 ekonomi içerisinde yer almayı hedeflemektedir. Ayrıca ihracatın ithalata oranının da 2023 yılında %80 olarak gerçekleşmesi planlanmaktadır. Türkiye'nin dış ticareti için gelecek planlanırken uluslararası maliyetlerin göz ardı edilmesi büyük sorunları da beraberinde getirebilir. Bu maliyetler içinde taşımacılık maliyetleri ve emtia fiyatları uluslararası ticaretin belirleyicilerindendir. Aynı zamanda döviz kurunun da bir ülkenin uluslararası ticaretteki performansı açısından önemli bir role sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Taşımacılık maliyetlerinin, uluslararası emtia fiyatlarının ve döviz kurunun ülkelerin uluslararası ticaretinin temsili değişkenleri arasında oldukları kabul edilmektedir. Tez çalışmasının temel amacı, Türkiye'nin dış ticaretinin uluslararası maliyetler ile olan nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya çıkarmaktır. Uluslararası ticaretin başlıca maliyetlerinden olan emtia fiyatları ve taşıma maliyetlerinin yanında döviz kuru da buna ek olarak küresel anlamda dış ticaretin belirleyici etkenleri olarak ele alınmaktadır. Taşımacılık maliyetlerini ölçmek için Baltık Kuru Yük endeksi (BDI) referans olarak alınmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik analizin sonuçlarına göre BDI verileri üzerinden belirlenen uluslararası taşımacılık maliyetlerinden ve nominal efektif döviz kurundan ithalata, ulusalararası emtia fiyatlarından ve nominal efektif döviz kurundan ihracata Granger nedensellik bulunmuştur.Declining the idea of self-sufficient countries in terms of economy and specialization of countries in order to produce more efficiently increase the importance of international trade. In the last thirty years, international trade has grown faster than global output level. According to 2001 World Trade Report of World Trade Organization (WTO) world trade has been approximately twice as fast as world production growth since 1980 until the start of 21th century. Share of emerging economies have been raising in world trade. Export share of developing economies reached to nearly half of total export globally. Turkey, one of the developing countries, intends to increase the trade share in international trade to 1.5% and to be in the top 10 economies in the world by 2023. Additionally, export/import ratio is planned to reach 80 % in 2023. It is possible to give problems when the international trade costs are ignored. Transport costs and commodity prices are two aspects to form international trade patterns. Also, exchange rate of a country has been seen as a significant factor for the international trade performance of country. Transport costs, international commodity prices and exchange rate have been accepted proxy variables of international trade of a country. The main purpose of the thesis is to find out the relation of foreign trade of Turkey with international costs by finding causality relations. International commodity prices and freight rates are two principal costs for international trade. Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is accepted as the indicator of transportation cost in international trade for the study. Besides, exchange rate of the country is taken another determinant of foreign trade globally. According to results of econometric analyses, international transportation cost from BDI data and nominal effective exchange rate are the Granger causality of import of Turkey. Besides, international commodity prices and nominal exchange rate are the Granger causality of export of Turkey

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX AND EXPORT: THE CASE OF TURKEY AND CENTRAL ASIAN AND TURKIC REPUBLICS

The paper focuses on the mutual interaction between export from Turkey to Central Asian and Turkic Republics (the CATRs) and exported product range. For measuring the range of exported products, we use economic complexity index (ECI) that refers to the knowledge intensity accumulated in the country's exported products. In addition, ECI provides information regarding the countries' export structures and income levels. We explore how export levels of Turkey and the CATRs, which have common religion and ethnicity, and the countries' ECI scores interact with each other. In this regard, we demonstrate how export affects the countries' ECI for both the CATRs and Turkey. For this purpose, we study the possible relationship between mutual trade volume and the countries' ECI scores by employing Westerlund's cointegration analysis, Pooled Mean Group Estimator (PMGE) model and Dumitrescu-Hurlin's panel causality method. We used the data on the researched countries for the period from 1996 to 2015 collected from official web sites. We have found that export from Turkey to the CATRs and Turkey's ECI scores have a long-term relationship. Additionally, there is a unidirectional causality relationship from Turkey's export to the CATRs to Turkey's ECI score and from the CATRs' ECI scores to the CATRs' export to Turkey. To sum up, our findings support the hypothesis that higher trade volume between Turkey and the CATRs increases the export of complex products for both sides. Based on the results, stronger mutual trade relations increase the total gain not only for Turkey but for the CATRs, too. Lastly, in future studies, we plan to cover all Post-Soviet countries and reveal the relations between bilateral trade and the range of exported products

Analysis Satisfaction Level of the Students with Instructors

The primary objective of the paper is to discuss whether class differences have an impact on the differences have an impact on the factors determining the satisfaction with instructors. The data set of the study consists of questionnaires in which all students at International Trade Department of Sakarya University Business School taking courses in all semesters between 2014 - 2018 evaluate the lecturers of each semester and thus longitudinal data is used in the study. There are two different classes and who attended to all the courses of the program one year apart. According to results significant differences on the factors determined between the students in different classes were observed

Should be Frightened of Change in Freight Rates? A Casuality Analysis Between International Maritime Transportation Costs and Industrial Stock Market Returns

This paper examines on the linkage among stock indexes and transportation costs in global financial crisis. Therefore, we aim to find out whether Dow Jones Composite Average (DJA) and Istanbul Stock Exchange Industrial (BIST-Ind.) have causality relation with Baltic Dry Index (BDI) in 2007-2009 global financial crisis by performing Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality test with weekly returns of indexes. Tests confirm unidirectional causality from BIST-Ind. to BDI and bidirectional causality between DJA and BDI. Test results show that BIST-Ind. decoupled from DJA in the 2008 global financial crisis when international maritime transportation cost are taken into account. Thus, the impact of international freight rates is influential over more globalized industrial stock markets