Significance analysis and statistical mechanics: an application to clustering

This paper addresses the statistical significance of structures in random data: Given a set of vectors and a measure of mutual similarity, how likely does a subset of these vectors form a cluster with enhanced similarity among its elements? The computation of this cluster p-value for randomly distributed vectors is mapped onto a well-defined problem of statistical mechanics. We solve this problem analytically, establishing a connection between the physics of quenched disorder and multiple testing statistics in clustering and related problems. In an application to gene expression data, we find a remarkable link between the statistical significance of a cluster and the functional relationships between its genes.Comment: to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Neoantigen quality predicts immunoediting in survivors of pancreatic cancer.

Cancer immunoediting1 is a hallmark of cancer2 that predicts that lymphocytes kill more immunogenic cancer cells to cause less immunogenic clones to dominate a population. Although proven in mice1,3, whether immunoediting occurs naturally in human cancers remains unclear. Here, to address this, we investigate how 70 human pancreatic cancers evolved over 10 years. We find that, despite having more time to accumulate mutations, rare long-term survivors of pancreatic cancer who have stronger T cell activity in primary tumours develop genetically less heterogeneous recurrent tumours with fewer immunogenic mutations (neoantigens). To quantify whether immunoediting underlies these observations, we infer that a neoantigen is immunogenic (high-quality) by two features-'non-selfness'  based on neoantigen similarity to known antigens4,5, and 'selfness'  based on the antigenic distance required for a neoantigen to differentially bind to the MHC or activate a T cell compared with its wild-type peptide. Using these features, we estimate cancer clone fitness as the aggregate cost of T cells recognizing high-quality neoantigens offset by gains from oncogenic mutations. With this model, we predict the clonal evolution of tumours to reveal that long-term survivors of pancreatic cancer develop recurrent tumours with fewer high-quality neoantigens. Thus, we submit evidence that that the human immune system naturally edits neoantigens. Furthermore, we present a model to predict how immune pressure induces cancer cell populations to evolve over time. More broadly, our results argue that the immune system fundamentally surveils host genetic changes to suppress cancer

Identification of unique neoantigen qualities in long-term survivors of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a lethal cancer with fewer than 7% of patients surviving past 5 years. T-cell immunity has been linked to the exceptional outcome of the few long-term survivors1,2, yet the relevant antigens remain unknown. Here we use genetic, immunohistochemical and transcriptional immunoprofiling, computational biophysics, and functional assays to identify T-cell antigens in long-term survivors of pancreatic cancer. Using whole-exome sequencing and in silico neoantigen prediction, we found that tumours with both the highest neoantigen number and the most abundant CD8+ T-cell infiltrates, but neither alone, stratified patients with the longest survival. Investigating the specific neoantigen qualities promoting T-cell activation in long-term survivors, we discovered that these individuals were enriched in neoantigen qualities defined by a fitness model, and neoantigens in the tumour antigen MUC16 (also known as CA125). A neoantigen quality fitness model conferring greater immunogenicity to neoantigens with differential presentation and homology to infectious disease-derived peptides identified long-term survivors in two independent datasets, whereas a neoantigen quantity model ascribing greater immunogenicity to increasing neoantigen number alone did not. We detected intratumoural and lasting circulating T-cell reactivity to both high-quality and MUC16 neoantigens in long-term survivors of pancreatic cancer, including clones with specificity to both high-quality neoantigens and predicted cross-reactive microbial epitopes, consistent with neoantigen molecular mimicry. Notably, we observed selective loss of high-quality and MUC16 neoantigenic clones on metastatic progression, suggesting neoantigen immunoediting. Our results identify neoantigens with unique qualities as T-cell targets in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. More broadly, we identify neoantigen quality as a biomarker for immunogenic tumours that may guide the application of immunotherapies

Metody przetwarzania danych na potrzeby eksperymentalnego modelowania fal oceanicznych

This paper presents the data processing methodology for the physical modeling of ocean waves in wave flumes which was developed for the purpose of conducting hydrodynamics research in laboratory conditions. It includes the description of the research cycle, applied wave theory and the measured data processing methods. A significant achievement presented in this paper is the originally developed data analysis algorithm for the practical improvement of the wave generation process.W artykule przedstawiono analizę danych przeprowadzoną na potrzeby procesu fizycznego modelowania fal oceanicznych w basenach falowych. Metodologia opracowana została w celu realizacji badań hydrodynamicznych. Uwzględnia ona opis cyklu badawczego, teorię falową oraz metody przetwarzania danych pomiarowych. Istotnym osiągnięciem jest autorski algorytm przetwarzania danych służący praktycznej poprawie procesu generowania fal

Fierce selection and interference in B-cell repertoire response to chronic HIV-1

During chronic infection, HIV-1 engages in a rapid coevolutionary arms race with the host's adaptive immune system. While it is clear that HIV exerts strong selection on the adaptive immune system, the characteristics of the somatic evolution that shape the immune response are still unknown. Traditional population genetics methods fail to distinguish chronic immune response from healthy repertoire evolution. Here, we infer the evolutionary modes of B-cell repertoires and identify complex dynamics with a constant production of better B-cell receptor mutants that compete, maintaining large clonal diversity and potentially slowing down adaptation. A substantial fraction of mutations that rise to high frequencies in pathogen engaging CDRs of B-cell receptors (BCRs) are beneficial, in contrast to many such changes in structurally relevant frameworks that are deleterious and circulate by hitchhiking. We identify a pattern where BCRs in patients who experience larger viral expansions undergo stronger selection with a rapid turnover of beneficial mutations due to clonal interference in their CDR3 regions. Using population genetics modeling, we show that the extinction of these beneficial mutations can be attributed to the rise of competing beneficial alleles and clonal interference. The picture is of a dynamic repertoire, where better clones may be outcompeted by new mutants before they fix

Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Developed through data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise

A neoantigen fitness model predicts tumour response to checkpoint blockade immunotherapy

Checkpoint blockade immunotherapies enable the host immune system to recognize and destroy tumour cells. Their clinical activity has been correlated with activated T-cell recognition of neoantigens, which are tumour-specific, mutated peptides presented on the surface of cancer cells. Here we present a fitness model for tumours based on immune interactions of neoantigens that predicts response to immunotherapy. Two main factors determine neoantigen fitness: the likelihood of neoantigen presentation by the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and subsequent recognition by T cells. We estimate these components using the relative MHC binding affinity of each neoantigen to its wild type and a nonlinear dependence on sequence similarity of neoantigens to known antigens. To describe the evolution of a heterogeneous tumour, we evaluate its fitness as a weighted effect of dominant neoantigens in the subclones of the tumour. Our model predicts survival in anti-CTLA-4-treated patients with melanoma and anti-PD-1-treated patients with lung cancer. Importantly, low-fitness neoantigens identified by our method may be leveraged for developing novel immunotherapies. By using an immune fitness model to study immunotherapy, we reveal broad similarities between the evolution of tumours and rapidly evolving pathogens