Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?

We analyze the implications of the time inconsistency problem for the Turkish monetary policy in the last two decades. After deriving the restrictions that the Barro and Gordon model imposes on a time series model for inflation and output, we show that the time inconsistency problem can explain both the short-run and the long-run behaviour of inflation and output in the Turkish economy. The results also reveal that the Turkish monetary policymakers have put more emphasis on output stability than price stability in the last decade.Inflation, Turkish Economy, Time Inconsistency, Kalman Filter

Information and communication technologies on the road to 2023

ICT, an acronym for Information and Communications Technologies, can be basically defined as all hardware, software and services regarding the creation, storage, access and management of information and data. Recently, this industry has become a prime attraction for investors and policy-makers. This increased interest can be traced back on its strategic location at the very core of innovation, competitiveness and economic growth. The rapid developments in Information and Communications Technologies since the 1970s resulted in an industry growth that reached $4.1 trillion in 2011. Turkey's industry is estimated to be worth over$30.3 billion. Our country is the 17th largest economy in the world. It holds more than one percent of both the global population and its economy, yet its share of the global ICT market stands at 0.75 percent. This difference is an indicator for the industry's growth potential in Turkey. The growth potential of the IT industry, which holds 0.4 percent of the global market share, is clearly higher when the sub-industries of the Turkish ICT market are evaluated as well..

Assessing selectivity and market timing performance of mutual funds for an emerging market : The case of Turkey

This paper derives and analyzes the selectivity and market timing performance of the mutual funds for the Turkish economy for the financial crisis period by employing high-frequency data. The determinants of these derived abilities are investigated within a regression analysis. The results suggest weak evidence about selection ability and some evidence about superior market timing quality. They also indicate that management fees are negatively correlated with the ability measure, which is quite surprising. Experience emerges as an important factor, especially for market timing ability. Copyright © 2008 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved

An alternative method to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market

This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood. Since the issue is analyzed in a non-linear state space framework, the extended Kalman filter emerges as the optimal estimation algorithm. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, the results indicate that both the derived likelihood measure and the estimated time-varying parameters are meaningful and can successfully explain the path that the Turkish economy had followed between 2000 and 2006. The estimated parameters also suggest that overvalued domestic currency, current account deficit and the increase in the default risk increase the likelihood of having an economic crisis in the economy. Overall, the findings in this paper suggest that the estimation methodology introduced in this paper can also be applied to other emerging market economies as well. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market

Several studies including Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) imply that in emerging market economies, a tight monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework could actually increase the price level due to the lack of fiscal discipline and the associated high risk premium. We extend their arguments in two ways. First, we introduce a semi structural model with time-varying parameters, where the risk premium is 'unobserved' and it is derived within the system. Such an approach fits better with the volatile nature of emerging market economies by allowing us to track down the time-varying effects of macroeconomic dynamics on both the model-consistent risk premium and the other key variables. Second, we obtain impulse response functions and analyze the implications of a tight monetary policy on major macroeconomic variables. Taking the Turkish economy as our reference point, we find that the arguments of Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) seem to be valid. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions under a floating exchange rate regime for the Turkish economy: A post-crisis period analysis

The reported study has two purposes: first, it attempts to improve the literature on foreign exchange interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies, an area not previously studied in detail. The Turkish economy in the post-crisis period constitutes a good example in this context. Second, it proposes a new methodology, a time-varying parameter model, to analyse the effectiveness of the foreign exchange interventions. When the results from such an exercise are compared with those obtained from an event-study analysis, it is found that purchase-based interventions seem to be successful, especially after stabilization of the financial markets. In that sense, an asymmetry is detected regarding the effectiveness of interventions. Concerning the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates, it is found that the uncovered interest rate parity condition operates in an unconventional way, supporting the views put forward by recent emerging markets literature. © 2006 Taylor & Francis

Predictive values of stressful life events, social support, and locus of control in depressive symptomatology among university students

M.S. - Master of Scienc

Eğitim ve Sağlık Politikalarının Tasarruf Üzerindeki Etkileri

Bu çalışmada, eğitim ve sağlık politikalarının ve bu alanlarda yapılan harcamaların tasarruf eğilimleri üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Burada kaynak olarak gösterilen uygulamalı ve kuramsal çalışmalar, eğitim ve sağlık harcamalarının tasarrufları arttırdığını göstermektedir. Bu çalışmalarda ayrıca, bu alanlardaki harcamaların pozitif dışsallık özelliği göstermesinden dolayı bu sektörlerde etkin kamu politikalarına ihtiyaç duyulduğu vurgulanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın son bölümünde Türkiye ekonomisindeki sağlık ve eğitim harcamalarının sanayileşmiş ülkelerle karşılaştırmalı bir incelemesi sunulmaktadır

Turkiye'de bütçe harcamalari: Farkli dağilimlarin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi

Bu calisma, Turkiye'nin 2001 krizi sonrasinda uyguladigi maliye politikasina butce harcamalari perspektifinden baktiktan sonra, 2016 ve sonrasinda beklenen dusuk buyume doneminde genisleyici bir maliye politikasinin ekonomik buyume uzerindeki etkilerini tartismaktadir. Calismanin son bolumunde ise kamu harcamalarinin buyumeye katki verecek sekilde dagitilmasi, dinamik bir model cercevesinde incelenmektedir. Sonuclar, 2001 sonrasinda izlenen maliye politikasinin butce disiplini uzerindeki olumlu etkilerini gostermekle beraber, son donemde butcenin harcama katiliginda ve yapisal butce dengesinde bazi olumsuzluklari da tartismaya acmaktadir. Bununla beraber, mevcut kamu borc stoku ve butce disiplini altinda, kamunun tuketim harcamalari yoluyla onumuzdeki dusuk buyume doneminde ekonomiye bir ivme kazandirabilecegi sonucu da elde edilmektedir. Yuksek buyume doneminde ise genisleyici bir maliye politikasinin olumsuz bir etki yapacagi da bulgular arasindadir. Kamu harcamalarinin dagiliminin incelendigi son bolumde, kamunun uretimi arttiracak altyapi yatirimlarina daha fazla agirlik vermesi gerektigi bulunmaktadir. Egitim ve sagliga ayrilan kamu sermaye stokunun buyume uzerindeki etkileri ise fiziksel altyapi yatirimlarina ayrilan kamu sermaye stoku kadar yuksek degildir. Harcama dagilimi ile ilgili bir baska bulgu ise kamunun sermaye yatirimlarina daha fazla agirlik verirken hane halki transferlerini azaltmasi gerektigidir. Son olarak, kamunun idari harcamalarinda verimlilik yoluyla saglanacak bir azalmanin toplumsal fayda uzerinde onemli ve pozitif etkileri gorulmektedir. Bu sonuc da, onumuzdeki donemde kamu verimliligini arttirip idari harcamalari kisacak onlemlerin bir politika onceligi olmasi gerektigini soylemektedir

Analyzing time-varying effects of potential output growth shocks

Employing a state space model, we find for the United States economy that potential output growth rate can deviate from its steady state level for substantially long periods. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved