Costs of Climate Policy when Pollution Affects Health and Labour Productivity. A general Equilibrium Analysis Applied to Sweden

Much of the debate over global climate change involves estimates of the direct costs of global climate change mitigation. Recently this debate has included the issue of ancillary benefits. These benefits consist mainly of health improvements. Although it is generally acknowledged that air pollution affects respiratory health, and that valuations of these impacts make up a significant proportion of the damage costs of air pollution, these impacts are often neglected when evaluating the costs of climate policy. Since reducing greenhouse gases has the effect of also reducing other pollutants affecting human health and labour productivity these effects should be taken into consideration. The analysis incorporates a linkage between air pollution and health effects into a general equilibrium model for Sweden through a theoretical consistent framework. Results from recent Swedish concentration-response and contingent valuation studies are used to model direct disutility and indirect health effects that negatively affects the productivity of labour. The costs of feedback effects on health and productivity are compared in three different scenarios for attaining the Swedish carbon dioxide target with alternative projected emission levels in the baseline scenario as well as alternative harmful emission levels. Results show that not including feedback effects could mean overstating the costs of climate policy. The magnitude of these effects are, however, very sensitive to projected emission levels and to the judgement of harmful emission levels.air pollution; ancillary benefits; climate policy; general equilibrium; health

The EMEC model: Version 2.0

The present paper introduces a new version of an applied general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy: Environmental Medium Term Economic Model (EMEC). The model is used at NIER for analysing economic implications for households and firms of the Swedish environmental policy. The economy and the environment interact in the model and thus, we can analyse the economic implica-tions of various environmental policy measures, such as a CO2-tax, a CO2-ceiling and CO2-trading. The model captures also ancillary benefits of climate policy for NOx, SO2, PM10 and PM20. This new version of EMEC, in addition, analyses the effects of road user charges and the economic impact of environmental policy measures on six types of households, as transport demand is represented in a much more detail and as households are distributed, by disposal income and residence. Furthermore, the model distinguishes 26 industries, 33 composite commodities, 26 consumer goods, two kinds of labour and eight pollutants. The model produces results for endogenous variables, which can be interpreted fully in terms of the model’s theory, data and the assumptions underlying the exogenous variables.CGE-model; Sectors; Pollutants; Factors of production; Substitution; Sweden

Nitrogen and Sulphur Outcomes of a Carbon Emissions Target Excluding Traded Allowances - An Input-Output Analysis of the Swedish Case

A cost-effective policy instrument to attain the Swedish carbon emission target, suggested by the Government’s commission on flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol, is the purchase of emission allowances within the EU trading scheme, instead of reducing domestic CO2 emissions at higher costs. Also, proposed by the commission, is that only grandfathered, but not imported emission allowances, should be accounted for in the carbon emissions target. This formulation of the target is now under consideration by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency as instructed in Sweden’s Budget Bill for 2007. The nitrogen and sulphur outcomes of these suggestions for the climate policy are here assessed in the view of Sweden’s official emission projections for 2010 and 2020. In view of the historical emission multipliers and the analysis presented here, the proposed climate policy does not conform to Sweden’s interim targets for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). Although, the CO2 emission target could be attained at the least costs through emission trading, an environmental policy which brings also SO2 and NOx emissions to the acceptable levels requires additional policy instruments aiming at the exclusive reduction of these emissions. The findings here suggest that these reductions would correspond to decreases of the SO2/GDP and NOx/GDP ratios by 8 and 12 per cent, respectively. The emission multipliers of aggregate demand for CO2-permit trading and non-trading sectors, are calculated by exploiting the environmental accounting matrix of Sweden for 2000 within the framework of an inter industry model.Emission multipliers; carbon trading; emission/GDP ratio; environmental goals

Future Waste Scenarios for Sweden based on a CGE-model

Over the last decades, waste quantities have grown steadily in close relation to economic growth. To tackle the problem of continuing waste growth within the EU, waste prevention was listed among four top priorities in the EU Sixth environment Action Programme. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is here used for projecting future quantities of hazardous and non-hazardous waste in Sweden to 2030. The effects of driving forces behind waste generation are illustrated by comparing the results of waste projections for a Baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios. The scenarios differ mainly in GDP growth rates and in the assumptions about future waste intensities of the economic activities of firms and households. We use a high-resolution data set on waste flows of 18 various types of non-hazardous waste and 16 various types of hazardous waste attributed to six waste-generating sources for the base year 2006. Waste generated in the scenarios, thus, relate to firms’ material input, output, employees, capital scrapping and fuel combustion as well as households’ consumption. The impact of economic growth in increasing the generation of nonhazardous and hazardous waste is apparent when comparing the growth of waste from 2006 to 2030 in the five scenarios. On the contrary, technological change resulting in less waste intensive production processes and changed behaviour among households, making their activities less waste intensive, have a strong reducing effect, especially on generation of non-hazardous waste relating to firms’ material input.general equilibrium model; waste generation; decoupling; waste intensities waste scenarios.

The Excess Cost of Supplementary Constraints in Climate Policy: The Case of Sweden’s Energy Intensity Target

From the perspective of climate policy, a target for energy efficiency could imply costly overlapping regulation. We estimate, using a computable general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy, the potential economic cost of attaining the national 2020 energy intensity target by means of tax policy instruments. Our analysis shows that the efforts to meet the energy intensity target will also reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but at excessive costs compared to alternative climate policy instruments. Moreover, attainment of the energy intensity target will call for policy instruments additional to those needed for fulfilling the national climate policy target. The results are sensitive to the development of the nuclear energy production as the definition of energy intensity includes conversion losses in electricity productionclimate policy; energy efficiency; carbon tax; overlapping regulation; general equilibrium; Sweden

Cultivation of perennial crops for the benefit of the soil : production of perennial fruits, berries and vegetables as an alternative food production for Swedish climate zone four

I arbetet beskrivs inledningsvis jordbearbetningens negativa effekter på våra odlingsmarker. Vidare skildras jordbearbetningens omfattning i annuella odlingssystem jämfört med i perenna odlingssystem. Det konstateras att det totala bearbetningsbehovet är mindre i perenna odlingar, och det motiverar att perenna kulturer står i fokus i resten av arbetet. Med utgångspunkt i en odling av perenna kulturer i svensk klimatzon 4 undersöks sedan möjligheterna att täcka 100 personers dagliga intag av frukt och grönsaker på årsbasis. Storleken på det dagliga intaget grundas i livsmedelsverkets rekommendationer om totalt 500 gram per person och dag. Växtlistor innehållandes totalt 25 olika kulturer med odlingsvärde i zon 4 presenteras i arbetet och ligger till grund för de beräkningar om odlingsareal som följer. En produktion på 18,25 ton frukt och grönsaker beräknas tillräcklig för att täcka de 100 personernas årsbehov. Vid odling av de 25 perenna kulturerna från växtlistan beräknas en odlingsyta på 4,3 hektar vara nödvändig för att producera 18,25 ton.This essay describes how the soil preparation affects the soil’s qualities as a growing substrate. Production of annual crops comes with a higher demand of soil preparation than production of perennial crops. This motivates why the perennial crops henceforward is the main focus in this paper. A production of perennial crops in Swedish climate zone 4 is suggested, with the aims of producing enough fruits and vegetables to cover the yearly intake for a number of 100 people. The intake is based on Sweden's national food agency’s recommendation of 500 gram fruit and vegetables per day and person. Following comes two lists consisting a total of 25 cultures that are hardy in the given climate. They set the premises for the calculations of what acreage that will be needed for the production. According to the recommendations, a production of 18,25 tonnes is required to cover the yearly intake for 100 people. With the 25 perennial cultures presented in the two lists a calculated area of 4,3 hectares is needed for producing the 18,25 tonnes

Analysing future solid waste generation - Soft linking a model of waste management with a CGE-model for Sweden

Parallel to the efforts of the EU to achieve a significant and overall reduction of waste quantities within the EU, the Swedish parliament enacted an environmental quality objective stating that ‘the total quantity of waste must not increase …’ i.e. an eventual absolute decoupling of waste generation from GDP. The decoupling issue is ad-dressed, in the present paper, by assessing future waste quantities, for a number of economic scenarios of the Swedish economy to 2030 with alternative assumptions about key factors affecting waste generation and waste management costs. We use an integrated top-down/bottom-up approach by linking a CGE-model of the Swedish economy with a systems engineering model of the Swedish waste management system. In this way, we can in more detail consider the interaction between waste generation and waste management costs (waste disposal prices) when assessing future waste quantities. A relative decoupling of waste generation takes place in all scenarios, i.e. total waste quantities increase at a lower rate than GDP. Absolute decoupling, which re-quire total waste quantities to stabilize or to reduce, does not take place in any of the scenarios. This means that the present Swedish Environmental quality objective of stabilizing waste quantities is not met in any of the scenarios with total waste genera-tion levels of 110 per cent up to nearly 200 per cent of that in 2006. The overall impression from our analysis is that costs are high for reducing waste generation irrespective of the type of waste reduced. In other words, the waste treat-ment costs are low compared to the costs for reducing waste. This situation also means that the use of policy instruments, which induce substitution by increasing the price of waste disposal services, will have very small reducing effects on the generation of all types of waste unless the price increase brings about an introduction of waste preventing techniques and affect households in the direction of a less waste intensive behaviour. For example, the policy instruments used must affect the pattern of household consumption pattern more directly, as a differentiation of the value added tax, rather than to be directed towards the waste management sector. Economic policy instruments introduced in the waste management sector are more likely to affect the choice of waste management solutions than prevent waste generation. Linking a macroeconomic and a systems engineering model for waste manage-ment, gives us a tool useful also for capturing the macroeconomic effects, such as GDP growth and structural changes, when designing policy instruments intended to prevent waste generation or take waste management in a more sustainable direction.general equilibrium model; systems engineering; solid waste; waste management; waste generation; decoupling; EMEC; NatWaste; top-down/bottom-up; waste policy instruments

Transformation of Lövholmen's industrial landscape

Liljeholmen var ett av de första industriområdena som etablerades i Stockholm. Idag återstår bara Lövholmen som ett fragment av detta historiska landskap, ett öde ingenmansland utan kopplingar till den urbana struktur som med tiden kommit att omsluta området. Dessa postindustriella landskap vars funktion gått förlorad kan lätt uppfattas av gemene man som föråldrat, ordinärt och utan framtid i den moderna staden. Ur ett annat perspektiv är områdets identitet beroende av Lövholmens historiska lager. Likt en väv utgörs nämligen ett landskap av trådar med minnen och berättelser, historier som kan ha formats under hundratals - ibland tusentals år. Att synliggöra Lövholmens identitet är därför att göra Stockholms historia läsbar i landskapet, vilket är av stor betydelse för människor. Samtidigt utgör de postindustriella landskapen ofta strategiska lägen i staden. Utvecklad infrastruktur och ofta vattennära läge gör dessa områden intressanta att förtäta i en tid av en allt högre urbaniseringsvåg. Lövholmen är inget undantag i och med det uppdrag Stockholm stad gett det danska arkitektkontoret Gehl Architects om att rita en ny stadsdel i området. En vision finns om att skapa ca 1500 bostäder, fem förskolor och en högstadieskola i den nya strukturen som ska inrymmas på en yta som motsvarar parken Humlegården i Stockholm. Syftet med detta examensarbete är att visa för en stor målgrupp hur landskapsarkitektur kan aktivera dessa komplexa industrilandskap. Målet är därför att väva samman nya element med det historiska lagret för att forma ett landskap av betydelse för människor. Ett gestaltningsförslag med starka kopplingar grundat i Lövholmens alla minnen och berättelser - dess identitet. I sökandet efter denna struktur liknas landskapets komplexa system vid ett språk, där ordets delar får betydelse genom helheten. Inför transformationen och gestaltningen av Lövholmen är en litteraturstudie inom semiotiken och designteorin strukturalismens värld därför av stor vikt för att hitta språkets sammanlänkande principer som ska stärka kommunikationen i landskapet. Examensarbetet är mitt försök att väcka diskussion och ifrågasätta den allmänt etablerade strategin om förtätning och därmed Lövholmens framtid. Att inte enbart utgå från funktioner, exploateringstal utan istället landskapets potential och dess identitet. När förstaden Liljeholmen alltmer förtätas och liknar innerstaden till exploateringstal finns nämligen en unik möjlighet för Lövholmen att utvecklas och få en ny funktion likt ett andrum för rekreation, berättelser, lek och möten - ett landskap av betydelse för människor.Liljeholmen was one of the first industrial areas to be established in Stockholm’s suburbs. Today, only Lövholmen remains as a fragment of this historic landscape, a desolate no-man’s land without connections to the urban structure that over time has come to enclose the area. These post-industrial landscapes whose function has been lost can easily be perceived by the common man as outdated, ordinary and without a future in the modern city. From another perspective, Stockholm’s identity is dependent on Lövholmen’s historical layer. Like a weave, a landscape consists of threads with memories and stories, stories that may have been shaped over hundreds - sometimes thousands of years. Keeping the historical layer and Lövholmen’s identity is making Stockholm’s history readable in the landscape, which is of great meaning and importance for people. At the same time, the post-industrial landscapes often constitute strategic locations in the city. Developed infrastructure and often waterfront location make these landscapes interesting to densify in a time of increasing urbanization; Stockholm and Lövholmen are no exception. Therefore, the City of Stockholm has given the Danish architectural firm Gehl Architects the opportunity to design a new, dense district in the area. Their vision is to create around 1500 apartments, five preschools and a high school in the new structure of Lövholmen, a small-scale area that is the size of the district park Humlegården in Stockholm. The purpose of this thesis is to show how landscape architecture can activate these complex industrial landscapes. The goal is therefore to create a new proposal for Lövholmen’s industrial landscape that can interweave new elements with the existing historical layer to shape a structurally connected landscape of meaning for people. A proposal based on Lövholmen’s memories – its identity. In the search for this new structure, the complex system of the landscape is seen as a language, where the elements in it gain meaning through the whole. Before a transformation of the landscape of Lövholmen, a literature study in semiotics and a design theory structuralism is of great importance in the search of interconnecting principles of language that will strengthen the connection and the communication in the landscape. This thesis is my attempt to raise a discussion and question the generally established strategy of densification. A wish that urban planning does not start by only applying functions and floor space index, but by the enlargement of the planning process to emphasize the identity of the landscape and its potential. As the suburb of Liljeholmen becomes increasingly densified and resembles the inner city in terms of development, there is a unique opportunity for Lövholmen to develop and have a new function like a breathing space for recreation, memories, play and meetings - a landscape of meaning for people

Att skapa förutsättningar för stadsliv genom inkluderande design

När städer förtätas bli kvalitativa offentliga rum en viktig faktor för livet i staden. De offentliga rummen är medborgarnas gemensamma resurs. Genom design som verktyg kan alla inkluderas i en stad med god livsmiljö. Det huvudsakliga målet med denna kandidatuppsats är att reda ut hur landskapsarkitektur kan användas som verktyg för att skapa inkluderande offentliga miljöer med stadsliv. Bilar hämmar mänsklig aktivitet. En plats som tas i anspråk av bilar löper stor risk att upplevas ödslig och bli folktom. S:t Eriks torg i Uppsala är ett exempel på en plats med potential att bli ett människovänligt offentligt rum men som i dagsläget används som parkeringsplats och omringas av bilvägar. Genom att studera litteratur hittade vi viktiga gestaltningsprinciper som vi sedan applicerade på S:t Eriks torg i ett gestaltningsförslag. För att få en referens på hur en plats kan utformas inkluderande besökte vi kontoret Mandaworks AB som gestaltat Slussplan i Malmö. Delägaren Martin Arfalk beskrev hur de använde sig av design för att skapa en flexibel och inkluderande gestaltning med exempelvis platsspecifika bänkar. Slussplan fick en ny identitet med sin karaktärsfulla vegetation, sina färgstarka konstverk och sitt flexibla golv av stenmjöl, sammansatt till en dynamisk helhet. Under gestaltningsprocessen inventerade vi platsens förutsättningar och funktioner och analyserade sedan hur vi kan ta bort och tillföra element som skapar förutsättning för stadsliv. Detta kom att resultera i ett nytt gestaltningsförslag för torget. Under arbetet hittade vi viktiga samband mellan tillgänglighet, uteslutande av vissa målgrupper och mänsklig aktivitet i den byggda miljön. För att designa för människor krävs att en förståelse för olika människors behov och förutsättningar. Arkitekter och planerare måste prioritera människor i första hand, i synnerlighet när bilismen under flera decennier hämmat möjligheten till att röra sig fritt och vistas i staden. Genom att tillgängliggöra attraktiva lägen för människor istället för bilar, kan vi som landskapsarkitekter skapa nya innovativa rum för liv och rörelse. Det offentliga rummet ska inkludera alla grupper och individer oavsett exempelvis kön, socioekonomisk status, ålder eller etnicitet.The outcome of urbanization is high-density cities. When public spaces are getting fewer and the city’s population is rising it’s essential to design spaces of high quality where city life can take place. Public places are fundamental resources that belongs to all citizens. The primary aim with this bachelor thesis is to untangle how landscape architects can use design as a tool to make public spaces an inclusive place where life can take place. Cars depress city life. If a place is occupied by a great number of cars, the place will presumably be perceived as lifeless and empty. S:t Eriks square in central Uppsala is a parking space surrounded by roads. We think the square has the potential of becoming a humane public space. By studying literature we have concluded design principals that has reinforced a design proposal for S:t Eriks square, promoting city life. In order to get a reference of how a public space can be designed to support city life, we visited the design office Mandaworks AB to learn about a project they executed in Slussplan in Malmö. Martin Arfalk, partner at Mandawork, described how they used design to make a flexible and inclusive design including site specific furniture. Slussplan has a new identity with its vivid greeneries, colorful art pieces and a flexible stone dust surface, all combined in a dynamic layout. We observed the example S:t Eriks torg by doing an inventory. We visited the place to map out the conditions and functions that character S:t Eriks torg today. The analysis of data, made it possible to identify conditions that support city life, which the design proposal are built upon. During this bachelor thesis we have found substantial correlations between accessibility, exclusion of certain groups in society and human activity in the built environment. Designing for people deals with varied needs and interests to please diverse groups and individuals, therefore landscape architects need to learn lines of actions to include all citizens into public space. People have to be the highest priority in urban environments. The opportunity to move around without obstacles and having high quality spaces to stay in is essential for city life. If we give people access to public spaces by removing cars and applying inviting landscape architecture we can make innovative places where people can meet; for instance people of different gender, socio-economic class, age or ethnicity

Integrated economic and environmental assessment of waste policy instruments

The need for new policy instruments supporting the on-going transition from end-of-pipe waste treatment to resource management has been recognized in European policy. Instruments need to be carefully assessed before implementation to promote the desired changes and avoid problem shifting. Mathematical models may assist policy makers in such assessments. This paper presents a set of soft-linked models for assessing the economic and environmental impacts of policy instruments for both the prevention and management of waste and discusses its strengths and limitations. Consisting of (1) a macro-economic model, (2) a systems engineering model for waste management and (3) a life cycle assessment model for waste management, the set is primarily suited to assessing market-based instruments and environmental regulations. Considerable resources were needed for developing and using the set, and there are clear limits as to what can be addressed. However, if only one of the models had been used, neither the range of instruments nor the scope of impacts would have been possible to cover. Furthermore, soft-linked models allow many disciplines to contribute within one harmonized framework. Such integrated assessments may become increasingly useful for continuing the implementation of policy for sustainable governance of society’s material resources