Do Miracles Lead to Crises?: An Informational Frictions Explanation to Emerging Market Financial Crises

financial crises, emerging markets, informational frictions, signal extraction

Can Miracles Lead to Crises? An Informational Frictions Explanation of Emerging Markets Crises

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself are consequences of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. The model features two sets of investors, domestic and foreign. Both sets of investors are imperfectly informed about the true state of the emerging economy. Investors learn from noisy signals which contain information relevant for asset returns and formulate expectations, or ``beliefs'', about the state of productivity. Numerical analysis shows that, if preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a sharp downward adjustment in investors' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment and sensitivity to negative signals increase with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal. Moreover, with the introduction of informational frictions, asset prices display persistent effects in response to transitory shocks, and the volatility of consumption increasesfinancial crises, emerging markets, informational frictions, learning

The Constraints on CP Violating Phases in models with a dynamical gluino phase

We have analyzed the electric dipole moment and the Higgs mass constraints on the supersymmetric model which offers dynamical solutions to the \mu and strong CP problems. The trilinear coupling phases, and \tan\beta-|\mu| are strongly correlated, particularly in the low-\tan\beta regime. Certain values of the phases of the trilinear couplings are forbidden, whereas the CP violating phase from the chargino sector is imprisoned to lie near a CP conserving point, by the Higgs mass and electric dipole moment constraints.Comment: 19 pages, 11 eps fig

The Higgs Sector and electron electric dipole moment in next-to-minimal supersymmetry with explicit CP violation

We study the explicit CP violation of the Higgs sector in the next--to--minimal supersymmetric model with a gauge singlet Higgs field. Our numerical predictions show that electric dipole moment of electron lies around the present experimental upper limits. The mass of the lightest Higgs boson is quite sensitive to the CP violating phases in the theory. It is observed that as the vacuum expectation value of the singlet gets higher values, CP violation increases.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figure

The Neutralino Mass: Correlation With The Charginos

As the fundamental SU(2) supersymmetric parameters can be determined in the chargino sector, and the remaining fundamental parameters of the minimal supersymmetric extensions of the standard model can be analyzed in the neutralino sector, the two sectors can be correlated via these parameters. We have shown that for the CP conserving case, the masses of all the neutralinos can be determined in terms of the chargino masses, and $\tan\beta$. In this case the neutralino masses are quite insensitive to the variations of $\tan\beta$; they change by about $$ when $\tan\beta$ varies in the range from 5 to 50. In the CP violating case, the neutralino masses are found to be quite sensitive to the variations of the CP violating phase. For the heavier neutralinos the dependence of the masses to the CP violating phase show complementary behaviour at CP violating points.Comment: 14 pages, 16 figure

Entrepreneurs as parents : the antecedents and consequence of parenting stress

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand parenting stress of entrepreneurs and to attempt to extend the empirical evidence on the predictors and consequences of parenting stress for entrepreneurs. Design/methodology/approach This study draws on data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. The quantitative research method was used. Drawing on the data of 2,051 entrepreneurs, a model was tested using structural equation modeling. Findings The results reveal that social support is a strong predictor of parenting stress and that there is a direct effect between parenting stress and family to work interference (FWI). In addition, parenting stress partially mediates the relationship between social support and FWI. Adding a direct path from social support to FWI substantially improves the validity in a revised model. No effects of gender stereotypes are found. Originality/value This study attempts to extend previous work on parenting and vocational behavior by investigating the perceptional and stereotypical antecedents of parenting stress and examining the impact of parenting stress on FWI. To the challenges of parenting, many entrepreneurs face constant pressure to achieve a positive return in their business venture and work hard, for long hours. Therefore, a better understanding of entrepreneurs’ parenting roles and stress can shed some light on the challenges faced by self-employed individuals and contributes to the vocational behavior and career development literature and practical experiences

Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis

Financial innovation and overconfidence about asset values and the riskiness of new financial products were important factors behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral constraint in which agents learn \by observation" the true riskiness of a new financial environment. Early realizations of states with high ability to leverage assets into debt turn agents overly optimistic about the persistence probability of a high-leverage regime. Conversely, the first realization of a low-leverage state turns agents unduly pessimistic about future credit prospects. These effects interact with the Fisherian deflation mechanism, resulting in changes in debt, leverage, and asset prices larger than predicted under either rational expectations without learning or with learning but without Fisherian deflation. The model predicts a large, sustained increase in net household debt and in residential land prices between 1997 and 2006, followed by a sharp collapse in 2007.