The Future of Global Water Stress: An Integrated Assessment

We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 large river basins or Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements over the coming decades under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimatic changes through the middle of this century. We find that for many developing nations water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living in regions with at least moderate water stress. Of this additional 1.8 billion people, 80% are found in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress due to socioeconomic growth. The strongest climate impacts on relative changes in water stress are seen over many areas in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living in regions with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. Under the context of the WRS model framework, this would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and would include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 large river basins or Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements over the coming decades under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimatic changes through the middle of this century. We find that for many developing nations water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living in regions with at least moderate water stress. Of this additional 1.8 billion people, 80% are found in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress due to socioeconomic growth. The strongest climate impacts on relative changes in water stress are seen over many areas in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living in regions with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. Under the context of the WRS model framework, this would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and would include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements

The Impact of the EU Emissions Trading System on Air Passenger Arrivals in the Caribbean

Abstract We estimate the impact of additional costs imposed on airlines by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on air travel tourist arrivals in 26 Caribbean states. At an EU emission allowance price of €10, we find that the EU ETS will, on average, increase return airfares from Europe to the Caribbean by 1.6% ($19) and decrease total air passenger arrivals by 0.35%. There are, however, wide variations in estimated impacts across states. The decrease in total air arrivals is largest for Martinique (1.3%) and relatively large decreases are also predicted for Antigua and Barbuda, Bonaire, Barbados Curacao and Suriname. Elsewhere, decreases in air arrivals in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are less than 0.05%. We conclude that the EU ETS will have a moderate impact on visitor arrivals relative to the UK's Air Passenger Duty (APD) and the European financial crisis

Des situations interactionnelles pour un espace de parole mieux partagé en classe de CP

International audienceThis research explores oral interaction in the classroom, a topic already much studied but still not clearly defined. The consensus is that speaking time is unevenly distributed within groups of learners. Therefore, we organised interactional situations to answer the following question: how can the teacher, by setting up particular interactional situations, successfully regulate turn-taking among first-year primary school pupils and thereby enable them to develop their oral skills? A quantitative and qualitative analysis of the pupils’ interactions (including multimodal aspects) was conducted using transcriptions of the sessions which had been recorded on video. By categorising interaction in terms of standard profiles, we are able to examine the longitudinal effects of the measures taken. The results indicate a growing awareness of conversational rules and more significant sharing of talking time in class.Cette recherche explore l’oral en interaction en classe, déjà longuement étudié mais encore difficilement délimité. Le constat est partagé : la parole est inégalement répartie. De fait, nous avons organisé des situations interactionnelles pour répondre à la question suivante : en quoi l’enseignant peut-il, à travers la mise en œuvre de situations interactionnelles, induire la régulation des prises de parole des élèves au CP en vue de développer des compétences orales ? Une analyse à la fois quantitative et qualitative des interactions (y compris des aspects multimodaux) a été menée à partir des transcriptions vidéos des séances. Une catégorisation en profils types permet d’examiner les effets du dispositif de manière longitudinale. Les résultats pointent une prise de conscience des règles conversationnelles et un partage plus important de la parole en classe

Des situations interactionnelles pour un espace de parole mieux partagé en classe de CP

International audienceThis research explores oral interaction in the classroom, a topic already much studied but still not clearly defined. The consensus is that speaking time is unevenly distributed within groups of learners. Therefore, we organised interactional situations to answer the following question: how can the teacher, by setting up particular interactional situations, successfully regulate turn-taking among first-year primary school pupils and thereby enable them to develop their oral skills? A quantitative and qualitative analysis of the pupils’ interactions (including multimodal aspects) was conducted using transcriptions of the sessions which had been recorded on video. By categorising interaction in terms of standard profiles, we are able to examine the longitudinal effects of the measures taken. The results indicate a growing awareness of conversational rules and more significant sharing of talking time in class.Cette recherche explore l’oral en interaction en classe, déjà longuement étudié mais encore difficilement délimité. Le constat est partagé : la parole est inégalement répartie. De fait, nous avons organisé des situations interactionnelles pour répondre à la question suivante : en quoi l’enseignant peut-il, à travers la mise en œuvre de situations interactionnelles, induire la régulation des prises de parole des élèves au CP en vue de développer des compétences orales ? Une analyse à la fois quantitative et qualitative des interactions (y compris des aspects multimodaux) a été menée à partir des transcriptions vidéos des séances. Une catégorisation en profils types permet d’examiner les effets du dispositif de manière longitudinale. Les résultats pointent une prise de conscience des règles conversationnelles et un partage plus important de la parole en classe

Revisiting Presentism: The Experience of the Present in Late Medieval and Early Modern North-Western Europe

This essay explores the pertinence of the present as a temporal category in the late medieval and early modern period. After a historiographical overview of scholarship on presentism and reflections on the complex notion of ‘present’, we present three case studies to explore how the experience of the present could be discerned and studied in literature, visual arts, and news media. The first case study focuses on the increasing emphasis on the present in the Gruuthuse manuscript and rederijker plays. Secondly, an examination of depictions of the breach of the Sint Anthonisdijk in 1651 shows different ways in which Dutch landscape painters engaged with the present. The final case study discusses how the spread of the northern invention of printed newsletters stimulated a wider interest in the present ‘elsewhere’ in apparent peripheric locations like Geneva. Drawing on these cases, we reflect on the relation between crises and presentism and suggest that the manner in which time, and the present in particular, was experienced in north-western Europe seems to be distinctly different from the relation to time of people in Renaissance Italy

Effect of chlorination during sewage sludge thermochemical treatment: phosphorus recovery and trace metal elements vaporization

International audienc

L'oral à l'école : qu'apprend-on et comment ?

L’objectif de ce numéro est de dépasser la dichotomie oral enseigné-oral pour apprendre, afin de montrer que les didacticiens ont continué à problématiser celle-ci ce qui donne à penser que l’enseignement de l’oral est en train de s’implanter durablement dans le paysage de la didactique du français. Dans cette perspective, sont présentés trois champs d’étude qui redessinent les contours actuels de la didactique de l’oral en interrogeant sa variabilité constitutive à l’école. The objective of this issue is to go beyond the taught oral skills v oral skills for learning dichotomy to show that educationalists have continued to problematize the latter, which suggests that the teaching of oral skills is becoming an established practice in the teaching of the French language. In the light of this, three fields of study are presented which redefine the current parameters the teaching of oral skills by questioning its constitutive variability in schools