An Assessment of Putin’s Economic Policy

Wirtschaftspolitik, Volkswirtschaft, Russland, Economic policy, Economy, Russia

The Eurasian Growth Paradox

In the first decade of postcommunist transition, multiple growth regressions showed that the more radical and comprehensive market economic reform was, the earlier a country returned to economic growth and the more vigorous its growth, and that Central Europe took the lead. Since 2000, however, the Commonweath of Independent States (CIS) countries have had more than 4 percentage points higher annual growth than the Central European countries. A regression analysis for 20 postcommunist countries shows, with strong significance, that reducing public expenditures has most effectively stimulated economic growth. As expected, oil exports are also positive and significant. The distance from the European Union is also positive and significant: that is, the further from the European Union, the higher the economic growth. The effect of corruption is negative for growth but only marginally significant. Neither the laggard effect nor investment reveals any significant effect. The conclusion is that at least among postcommunist countries more emphasis should be given to reducing public expenditures to boost economic growth.economic systems, transition, economic growth, public sector economy, oil

Age at migration and social integration

The paper studies childhood migrants and examines how age at migration affects their ensuing integration at the residential market, the labor market, and the marriage market. We use population-wide Swedish data and compare outcomes as adults among siblings arriving at different ages in order to ensure that the results can be given a causal inter-pretation. The results show that the children who arrived at a higher age had substan-tially lower shares of natives among their neighbors, coworkers and spouses as adults. The effects are mostly driven by higher exposure to immigrants of similar ethnic origin, in particular at the marriage market. There are also non-trivial effects on employment, but a more limited impact on education and wages. We also analyze children of migrants and show that parents’ time in the host country before child birth matters, which implies that the outcomes of the social integra¬tion process are inherited. Inherited integration has a particularly strong impact on the marriage patterns of females.Immigration; integration; segregation; age at migration; siblings

Ethnic enclaves and the economic success of immigrants - evidence from a natural experiment

Recent immigrants tend to locate in ethnic "enclaves" within metropolitan areas. The economic consequence of living in such enclaves is still an unresolved issue. We use an immigrant policy initiative in Sweden, when government authorities distributed refugee immigrants across locales in a way that may be considered exogenous. This policy initiative provides a unique natural experiment, which allows us to estimate the causal effect on labor market outcomes of living in enclaves. We find substantive evidence of sorting across locations. When sorting is taken into account, living in enclaves improves labor market outcomes; for instance, the earnings gain associated with a standard deviation increase in ethnic concentration is in the order of four to five percent.Immigration; Enclaves; Labor market outcomes

Childhood and Family Experiences and the Social Integration of Young Migrants

We use sibling variation in age at migration to study how early life exposure to the host country affects social integration in adulthood. Building on a Swedish population-wide dataset, we show that early experiences affect the probability of living close to, working with, and marrying other immigrants. Segregation also decreases with parental time in the host country before the subject’s birth. The effects are permanent and do not arise through differences in education or economic outcomes. Several results instead suggest that social integration is heavily affected by preferences or cultural identities that are set during early, formative, years.Immigration, integration, childhood experiences, age at migration, siblings.

Settlement Policies and the Economic Success of Immigrants

Many developed countries, e.g. the UK, Germany, and Sweden, use or have used settlement policies to direct the inflow of new immigrants away from immigrant dense metropolitan areas. We evaluate a reform of Swedish immigration policy that featured dispersion of refugee immigrants across the country, but also a change in the approach to labor market integration. We focus exclusively on how immigrants fared because of the policy. The results indicate that immigrants experienced fairly substantial long run losses because of the policy. We also find that only a smaller share of this effect was associated with the dispersion of immigrants across regions. The larger share of the impact appears to stem from a common component that affected immigrants regardless of where they were located. Our somewhat speculative reading of this result is that it can be traced to a shift in emphasis of integration policy from a policy focusing on labor market assimilation to one of income support.Immigration; Settlement policies; Labor market outcomes

Peers, Neighborhoods and Immigrant Student Achievement - Evidence from a Placement Policy

We examine to what extent immigrant school performance is affected by the characteristics of the neighborhoods that they grow up in. We address this issue using a refugee placement policy which provides exogenous variation in the initial place of residence in Sweden. The main result is that school performance is increasing in the number of highly educated adults sharing the subject’s ethnicity. A standard deviation increase in the fraction of high-educated in the assigned neighborhood raises compulsory school GPA by 0.9 percentile ranks. Particularly for disadvantaged groups, there are also long-run effects on educational attainment.Peer effects; Ethnic enclaves; Immigration; School performance

Peers, neighborhoods and immigrant student achievement – evidence from a placement policy

Immigrants typically perform worse than other students in the OECD countries. We examine to what extent this is due to the population characteristics of the neighborhoods that immigrants grow up in. We address this issue using a governmental refugee placement policy which provides exogenous variation in the initial place of residence in Sweden. The main result is that, for a given share of immigrants in a neighborhood, immigrant school performance is increasing in the number of highly educated adults sharing the subject’s ethnicity. A standard deviation increase in the fraction of highly educated adults in the assigned neighborhood increases compulsory school GPA by 0.9 percentile ranks. This magnitude corresponds to a tenth of the gap in student performance between refugee immigrant and native-born children. We also provide tentative evidence that the overall share of immigrants in the neighborhood has a negative effect on GPA.Peer effects; Ethnic enclaves; Immigration; School performance

Ukraine’s economic reforms: What has been done and will it succeed?

This article attempts to offer a picture of the state of the economic reform in Ukraine in the summer of 2015, assessing what has been done. It offers a periodisation of Ukraine’s economic policy since its independence in 1991, suggesting that Ukraine has seen three periods of significant reform and this is by far the most important. The main cause of Ukraine’s current economic decline is Russian warfare. The present situation differs greatly from that after the Orange Revolution in late 2004. These reform efforts are more far-reaching than earlier attempts, especially in the energy and banking sectors. Finally, four risks to the present reform wave are discussed. The four big risks to this reform wave lie in Russian warfare, insufficient international funding, lagging reforms in the judicial sector, and the wearing out of the coalition because of economic hardship

Ruslands nabopolitik: hovmod og fald

Ruslands udenrigspolitik og energipolitik skaber usikkerhed på energimarkedet i Europa og skræmmer nabolandene væk. I Kreml er magten overtaget af en gruppe tidligere efterretningsfolk, hvis vigtigste mål er at blive stenrige, og som ikke tåler opposition. Vesten må træde i karakter og holde Rusland fast på OSCE-forpligtelserne.&nbsp