Epidemiological projections for COVID-19 considering lockdown policies and social behavior: the case of Bolivia

We assess the epidemic situation caused by SARS-CoV-2 using Tsallis' proposal for determining the occurrence of the peak, and also the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Asymptomatic-Symptomatic and Dead (\textbf{SIRASD}) compartmental model. Using these two models, we determine a range of probable peak dates and study several social distancing scenarios during the epidemic. Due to the socioeconomic situation and the conflictive political climate, we take for our study the case of Bolivia, where a national election was originally scheduled to occur on September 6th and recently rescheduled on October 18th. For this, we analyze both electoral scenarios and show that such an event can largely affect the epidemic's dynamics.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

Modelling kinetics of thermal degradation of colour in peach puree

Optimisation of thermal processes relies on adequate degradation kinetic models for food safety and quality. In order to use peach puree as a model food to further validate calculated optimal conditions, isothermal experiments, using peach puree, were performed between 110°C and 135°C. Colour was quantified using the L, a, b system. Two combinations of these parameters, La/b and Total Colour Difference (TCD), were used to evaluate the total colour change. A one-step non-linear regression was performed on all data using the Arrhenius model. The changes in the L and b values followed a first-order reaction with activation energies of 107 ± 7 and 109 ± 8 kJ/mol, respectively. The fractional conversion model was applied to a, La/b and TCD resulting in activation energies of 106 ± 13, 106 ± 10 and 119 ± 9 kJ/mol, respectively

Controle do percevejo-castanho-da-raiz Scaptocoris carvalhoi, Becker 1967 (Hemiptera: cydnidae) com fungos entomopatogênicos.

A pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar a eficiência de isolados dos fungos Metarhizium anisopliae e Beauveria bassiana como agentes de mortalidade do percevejo-castanho Scaptocoris carvalhoi Becker, 1967. Os experimentos foram conduzidos na Embrapa Agropecuária Oeste, em Dourados, MS. Em condições de laboratório, suspensões de dez isolados de M. anisopliae e 11 de B. bassiana foram aplicadas topicamente no percevejo, inoculando-se 8 5 µl da suspensão de 10 conídios/ml em cada inseto. Utilizou-se o delineamento inteiramente casualizado com cinco repetições. Cada parcela foi constituída por 15 insetos (dez adultos e cinco ninfas grandes). Em outro bioensaio foi avaliada a patogenicidade de M. anisopliae (Ma69) para ninfas e adultos, separadamente. Os níveis de mortalidade do percevejo foram maiores com M. anisopliae, variando de 73,3% a 94,7% contra 10,7% a 78,7% para B. bassiana. Quando ninfas e adultos foram avaliados separadamente não houve diferença significativa com relação à mortalidade. Numa outra etapa, foi avaliada a virulência de quatro isolados do fungo M. anisopliae (Ma7, Ma69, Ma283 e Ma342) em S. carvalhoi e determinadas a DL e o TL . A DL foi determinada 50 50 50 4 5 6 7 8 preparando concentrações de 10 , 10 , 10 , 10 e 10 conídios/ml. Os menores valores da DL foram observados com os isolados 50 Ma69 e Ma7 e o maior com Ma283. Os valores de TL variaram de 50 0,32 a 5,84 dias, sem diferirem estatisticamente entre si. Em casa de vegetação foi avaliada a patogenicidade de um isolado de M. anisopliae (Ma69) em ninfas e adultos de S. carvalhoi, aplicando-se o fungo diretamente no solo dos vasos. Utilizou-se o delineamento inteiramente casualizado em 12 repetições, sendo a parcela constituída por 15 insetos. Para cada fase do inseto (adulto/ninfa) tratada com fungo houve uma testemunha, totalizando quatro tratamentos. Nos vasos contendo o fungo (Ma69), a percentagem de mortalidade de adultos + ninfas de S. carvalhoi foi de 57,3%, sendo estatisticamente superior à mortalidade verificada nos vasos não tratados. Quando ninfas e adultos foram submetidos à presença do fungo, separadamente, o índice de mortalidade foi significativamente maior para ninfas (80,8%) do que para adultos (32,2%). Os resultados obtidos evidenciam que o isolado Ma69 é altamente patogênico para S. carvalhoi, tanto em laboratório quanto em casa de vegetação, constituindo uma alternativa promissora para sua utilização como inseticida microbiano.bitstream/item/38778/1/BP200524.pd

Development of a novel methodology to validate optimal sterilization conditions for maximizing the texture quality of white beans in glass jars

Optimal thermal processes were designed for white beans in glass jars heated in a still and end-over-end rotary pilot water cascading retort. For this purpose, isothermal kinetics of thermal softening of white beans were studied in detail using a tenderometer and a texturometer. The fractional conversion model was applied in both cases to model the texture degradation. The Arrhenius equation described well the temperature dependence of the reaction rate constant. With regard to the heat transfer, heat penetration parameters (fh and jh) were experimentally determined from 100 containers under static as well as rotational (end-over-end) conditions at 4, 7, 10, and 15 rpm. Theoretical optimal temperatures, maximizing volume average quality retention, were calculated using a computer program valid for conduction heating foods. Experimental verification of the calculated results was conducted. Considering the finite surface heat transfer coefficient, theoretical and experimental optimal temperatures were of the same order of magnitude, around 130 °C, while for an infinite surface heat transfer coefficient the calculated optimum temperature was much lower than the experimental value. The type of reaction kinetic model, fractional conversion or first-order models, does not significantly affect optimal sterilization temperatures. Although some differences were found, the developed theoretical approach was successfully applied to convective and mixed heating mode products. The use of the correct surface heat transfer coefficient is crucial to design optimal processing conditions

Variability in quality of white and green beans during in-pack sterilization

Non-uniformity in process quality was investigated during in-pack thermal sterilization of food products. This was accomplished through the combined application of the Monte Carlo procedure and a reliable mathematical method for process evaluation. Despite the large coefficients of variation found, the optimum quality process could be designed. The influence of the statistical variability of heating rate index on the retention of green beans color was studied and an optimum temperature range was found between 125 and 135 C. The variability in hardness of sterilized white beans, resulting from uncertainties of the combined effect of heating rate index and initial hardness of beans, was also evaluated by simulation. In this case, an optimum global temperature range between 120 and 135 C was found, independently of the rotation, F0 value and surface heat transfer coefficient assumed

Selección de aislados de Trichoderma spp. para el control biológico de Sclerotium rolfsii Sacc.

bitstream/CENARGEN/29397/1/bp170.pd

Above- and Below-Ground Functional Trait Coordination in the Neotropical Understory Genus \u3cem\u3eCostus\u3c/em\u3e

The study of plant functional traits and variation among and within species can help illuminate functional coordination and trade-offs in key processes that allow plants to grow, reproduce and survive. We studied 20 leaf, above-ground stem, below-ground stem and fine-root traits of 17 Costus species from forests in Costa Rica and Panama to answer the following questions: (i) Do congeneric species show above-ground and below-ground trait coordination and trade-offs consistent with theory of resource acquisition and conservation? (ii) Is there correlated evolution among traits? (iii) Given the diversity of habitats over which Costus occurs, what is the relative contribution of site and species to trait variation? We performed a principal components analysis (PCA) to assess for the existence of a spectrum of trait variation and found that the first two PCs accounted for 21.4 % and 17.8 % of the total trait variation, respectively, with the first axis of variation being consistent with a continuum of resource-acquisitive and resource-conservative traits in water acquisition and use, and the second axis of variation being related to the leaf economics spectrum. Stomatal conductance was negatively related to both above-ground stem and rhizome specific density, and these relationships became stronger after accounting for evolutionary relatedness, indicating correlated evolution. Despite elevation and climatic differences among sites, high trait variation was ascribed to individuals rather than to sites. We conclude that Costus species present trait coordination and trade-offs that allow species to be categorized as having a resource-acquisitive or resource-conservative functional strategy, consistent with a whole-plant functional strategy with evident coordination and trade-offs between above-ground and below-ground function. Our results also show that herbaceous species and species with rhizomes tend to agree with trade-offs found in more species-rich comparisons

Improving adaptive bagging methods for evolving data streams

We propose two new improvements for bagging methods on evolving data streams. Recently, two new variants of Bagging were proposed: ADWIN Bagging and Adaptive-Size Hoeffding Tree (ASHT) Bagging. ASHT Bagging uses trees of different sizes, and ADWIN Bagging uses ADWIN as a change detector to decide when to discard underperforming ensemble members. We improve ADWIN Bagging using Hoeffding Adaptive Trees, trees that can adaptively learn from data streams that change over time. To speed up the time for adapting to change of Adaptive-Size Hoeffding Tree (ASHT) Bagging, we add an error change detector for each classifier. We test our improvements by performing an evaluation study on synthetic and real-world datasets comprising up to ten million examples