Be-CoDiS: A mathematical model to predict the risk of human diseases spread between countries. Validation and application to the 2014-15 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that currently requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in the United Kingdom, the USA and Spain. Regarding the emergency of this situation, there is a need of development of decision tools, such as mathematical models, to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In this work, we propose a novel deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries. The main interesting characteristics of Be-CoDiS are the consideration of the movement of people between countries, the control measure effects and the use of time dependent coefficients adapted to each country. First, we focus on the mathematical formulation of each component of the model and explain how its parameters and inputs are obtained. Then, in order to validate our approach, we consider two numerical experiments regarding the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic. The first one studies the ability of the model in predicting the EVD evolution between countries starting from the index cases in Guinea in December 2013. The second one consists of forecasting the evolution of the epidemic by using some recent data. The results obtained with Be-CoDiS are compared to real data and other models outputs found in the literature. Finally, a brief parameter sensitivity analysis is done. A free Matlab version of Be-CoDiS is available at: http://www.mat.ucm.es/momat/software.htmComment: 34 pages; Version 5; Work in Progres

On a property of Lorenz curves with monotone elasticity and its application to the study of inequality by using tax data

The Lorenz curve is the most widely used graphical tool for describing and comparing inequality of income distributions. In this paper, we show that the elasticity of this curve is an indicator of the effect, in terms of inequality, of a truncation of the income distribution. As an application, we consider tax returns as equivalent to the truncation from below of a hypothetical income distribution. Then, we replace this hypothetical distribution by the income distribution obtained from a general household survey and use the dual Lorenz curve to anticipate this effect

The effects of Marketing Communication on Brand Equity A Look into the Market of Lasting Goods

In this project we establish a theoretical and empirical basis that shows the influence of marketing communications, as a marketing effort, on the determination of the product’s brand equity. The theoretical review supports applying analysis techniques based on structural equations models, to empirically confirm the relationship between marketing communication efforts and the dimensions of brand equity: perceived quality, brand loyalty, brand awareness and brand image. This measurement model is verified on a sample group of families who purchased the chosen lasting goods, which in this case was a washing machine.En este trabajo establecemos una base teórica y empírica que muestre la influencia de la comunicación comercial como esfuerzo de marketing en la determinación del valor de marca del producto. La revisión teórica apoya la aplicación de técnicas de análisis basadas en los modelos de ecuaciones estructurales, para confirmar empíricamente las relaciones entre el esfuerzo en comunicación comercial y los componentes del valor de marca: calidad percibida, lealtad hacia la marca, notoriedad e imagen de marca. Esta corroboración la realizamos sobre una muestra de unidades familiares compradoras de lavadoras como producto duradero seleccionado

Los efectos de la comunicación comercial sobre el Valor de Marca de bienes duraderos.

En el presente trabajo pretendemos establecer, a partir de una revisión teórica previa, una base empírica para la consideración de la influencia de la comunicación comercial como esfuerzo de marketing en la determinación del valor de marca del producto. Tras la revisión teórica que sustenta la aplicación de modelos de ecuaciones estructurales, planteamos la confirmación empírica de las relaciones existentes entre el esfuerzo en comunicación comercial y los componentes del valor de marca: calidad percibida, lealtad hacia la marca, notoriedad e imagen de marca. Esta corroboración la realizamos sobre una muestra de unidades familiares compradoras de lavadoras como producto duradero seleccionado.In this paper we propose, from one previous theoretical revision, an empirical base for consideration of the influence of promotion as effort of marketing in determination of product brand equity. After theoretical revision sustained in application of analysis data based on the models of structural equations, we raised empirical confirmation of the existing relations between promotions and the brand equity dimensions: quality perceived, loyalty, notoriety and brand image. This contrast we made it on a sample of family consumers and users of washing-machines as lasting good

Disseny i creació d’un sistema de monitoratge energètic per la Indústria 4.0

Avui dia, cada cop més indústries basen la seva activitat productiva en l’ús de sistemes intel·ligents per satisfer les seves necessitats. La perspectiva de la història industrial permet qüestionar problemes que afecten els sistemes de producció actuals com l’augment econòmic de l’energia entre altres recursos i matèries primeres. Aquest projecte se centra en el disseny i creació d’un sistema de monitoratge energètic per a les indústries 4.0 amb l’objectiu que les empreses puguin controlar la seva producció per fer productes més sostenibles gastant el mínim de recursos i també tenir el control de la no producció quan l’energia es gasta sense cap propòsit.Un avantatge de la solució del sistema global és l’ús d’estàndards com MODBUS TCP, RESTFUL i les xarxes SCADA. S’inclou una revisió dels conceptes bàsics relacionats amb la indústria 4.0 i els elements que conformen el sistema per separat com ara bases de dades, servidors i PLC. D’altra banda, s’ha creat una interfície amb la finalitat de poder ajudar a un conjunt d’indústries cada cop més gran a mostrar el seu consum en temps real de la seva planta de producció. També s’ha creat un sistema ERP per fer estadístiques energètiques en diferents entorns industrials.Hoy en día, cada vez más industrias basan su actividad productiva en el uso de sistemas inteligentes para satisfacer sus necesidades. La perspectiva de la historia industrial permite cuestionar problemas que afectan a los sistemas de producción actuales como el aumento económico de la energía entre otros recursos y materias primas. Este proyecto se centra en el diseño y creación de un sistema de monitorización energética para las industrias 4.0 con el objetivo de que las empresas puedan controlar su producción para hacer productos más sostenibles gastando el mínimo de recursos y también tener el control de la no producción cuando la energía se gasta sin ningún propósito. Una ventaja de la solución del sistema global es el uso de estándares como MODBUS TCP, RESTFUL y las redes SCADA. Se incluye una revisión de los conceptos básicos relacionados con la industria 4.0 y los elementos que conforman el sistema por separado como bases de datos, servidores y PLC. Por otra parte, se ha creado una interfaz con el fin de poder ayudar a un conjunto de industrias cada vez mayor a mostrar su consumo en tiempo real de su planta de producción. También se ha creado un sistema ERP para realizar estadísticas energéticas en diferentes entornos industriales.Nowadays more and more industries base their production activity on the use of intelligent systems to meet their needs. The perspective of industrial history allows us to question problems that affect current production systems such as the economic increase in electricity among other resources and raw materials. This project focuses on the design and creation of an energy monitoring system for industries 4.0 with the aim that companies can control their production to make more sustainable products by spending the minimum of resources and also have control over the non production when energy is spent without any purpose. An advantage of the global system solution is the use of standards such as MODBUS TCP, RESTFUL and SCADA networks. A review of the basic concepts related to industry 4.0 and the elements that make up the system separately such as databases, servers and PLCs is included. On the other hand, an interface has been created with the purpose of being able to help an ever-growing set of industries to show their consumption in real time of their production plant. An ERP system has also been created energy statistics in diferent industrial environments

A Variance-Expected Compliance Model for Structural Optimization

t The goal of this paper is to find robust structures for a given main load and its perturbations. In the first part, we show the mathematical formulation of an original variance-expected compliance model used for structural optimization. In the second part, we study the interest of this model on two 3D benchmark test cases and compare the obtained results with those given by an expected compliance mode

A Multi-Layer Line Search Method to Improve the Initialization of Optimization Algorithms (Preprint submitted to Optimization Online)

We introduce a novel metaheuristic methodology to improve the initialization of a given deterministic or stochastic optimization algorithm. Our objective is to improve the performance of the considered algorithm, called core optimization algorithm, by reducing its number of cost function evaluations, by increasing its success rate and by boosting the precision of its results. In our approach, the core optimization is considered as a suboptimization problem for a multi-layer line search method. The approach is presented and implemented for various particular core optimization algorithms: Steepest Descent, Heavy-Ball, Genetic Algorithm, Differential Evolution and Controlled Random Search. We validate our methodology by considering a set of low and high dimensional benchmark problems (i.e., problems of dimension between 2 and 1000). The results are compared to those obtained with the core optimization algorithms alone and with two additional global optimization methods (Direct Tabu Search and Continuous Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search). These latter also aim at improving the initial condition for the core algorithms. The numerical results seem to indicate that our approach improves the performances of the core optimization algorithms and allows to generate algorithms more efficient than the other optimization methods studied here. A Matlab optimization package called ”Global Optimization Platform” (GOP), implementing the algorithms presented here, has been developed and can be downloaded at: http://www.mat.ucm.es/momat/software.ht

On the approximate controllability for higher order parabolic nonlinear equations of Cahn-Hilliard type

Sire prove the approximate controllability property for some higher order parabolic nonlinear equations of Cahn-Hilliard type when the nonlinearity is of sublinear type at infinity. We also give a counterexample showing that this property may fail when the nonlinearity is of superlinear type