Risks and uncertainties manifested in the economic value of an investment: a case study of OGX Petróleo e Gás

The Brazilian financial and capital markets provide several investment options for an investor. However, the decision behind such options will depend on both investor profile and the investment returns. Having in mind that such return can be seen as the investor’s expectations of future cash flows from an investment, added to several risks and the uncertainty from such investment, macroeconomically speaking and even from the invested company itself, one could affirm that the subjectivity used in the valuation of an asset or a business would be one of the items considered in the definition of its economic value. In this sense, the main objective in this paper is to analyze how risk and uncertainty, allied to the formation of expectations in an investment valuation, can be manifested in its economic value. The research made for this paper was focused on the analysis of OGX Petróleo e Gás, a Brazilian publicly traded company, related to the period from 2008 to 2015. Some years after its IPO process, this company assessed that the assets once recognized could not be realized given the infeasibility on the exploration of oil and gas, resulting in the impairment of such assets and its recognition as losses by this company, contributing for the decline of its stock prices at the local exchange. Based on the results presented in this paper, the authors inferred that risk and uncertainty, allied to the formation of expectations, had strong influence on the valuation of the economic value of the OGX share

Riscos e incertezas manifestos no valor econômico de um investimento: um estudo de caso da OGX Petróleo e Gás

The Brazilian financial and capital markets provide several investment options for an investor. However, the decision behind such options will depend on both investor profile and the investment returns. Having in mind that such return can be seen as the investor’s expectations of future cash flows from an investment, added to several risks and the uncertainty from such investment, macroeconomically speaking and even from the invested company itself, one could affirm that the subjectivity used in the valuation of an asset or a business would be one of the items considered in the definition of its economic value. In this sense, the main objective in this paper is to analyze how risk and uncertainty, allied to the formation of expectations in an investment valuation, can be manifested in its economic value. The research made for this paper was focused on the analysis of OGX Petróleo e Gás, a Brazilian publicly traded company, related to the period from 2008 to 2015. Some years after its IPO process, this company assessed that the assets once recognized could not be realized given the infeasibility on the exploration of oil and gas, resulting in the impairment of such assets and its recognition as losses by this company, contributing for the decline of its stock prices at the local exchange. Based on the results presented in this paper, the authors inferred that risk and uncertainty, allied to the formation of expectations, had strong influence on the valuation of the economic value of the OGX share.No mercado financeiro e de capitais brasileiro, muitas são as opções de investimentos para os poupadores de recursos. Entretanto, a decisão por tais opções dependerá basicamente do perfil do investidor e do retorno esperado do ativo a que se queira investir. Tendo em vista a questão do retorno sob a forma de expectativa da geração de fluxos de caixa futuros, somados aos riscos diversos e à incerteza, tanto sob o aspecto macroeconômico quanto do próprio negócio da empresa investida, pode-se afirmar, de início, que a subjetividade utilizada na avaliação de um ativo ou um negócio seja um dos itens considerados na definição do seu valor econômico. Nesse sentido, o objetivo central deste artigo é analisar como o risco e a incerteza, aliados à formação das expectativas na avaliação de um investimento, se manifestam na formulação do seu valor econômico. A pesquisa documental deste trabalho foi focada na análise da empresa OGX Petróleo e Gás S.A. (OGX) compreendendo o período de 2008 a 2015. Alguns anos após a abertura de seu capital, foi constatado, pela OGX, que boa parte dos ativos anteriormente reconhecidos não apresentavam viabilidade na exploração de petróleo e gás natural, resultando no reconhecimento em seu resultado de perdas na forma de impairment, o que ocasionou a queda do valor de suas ações. Desse modo, com base nos resultados apresentados neste estudo, pode-se inferir que o risco e a incerteza, aliados a formação das expectativas, tiveram forte influência na avaliação do valor econômico da ação da OGX.