Subprime consumer credit demand: evidence from a lender's pricing experiment

We test the interest rate sensitivity of subprime credit card borrowers using a unique panel data set from a UK credit card company. What is novel about our contribution is that we were given details of a randomized interest rate experiment conducted by the lender between October 2006 and January 2007. We find that individuals who tend to utilize their credit limits fully do not reduce their demand for credit when subject to increases in interest rates as high as 3 percentage points. This finding is naturally interpreted as evidence of binding liquidity constraints. We also demonstrate the importance of truly exogenous variation in interest rates when estimating credit demand elasticities. We show that estimating a standard credit demand equation with nonexperimental variation leads to seriously biased estimates even when conditioning on a rich set of controls and individual fixed effects. In particular, this procedure results in a large and statistically significant 3-month elasticity of credit card debt with respect to interest rates even though the experimental estimate of the same elasticity is neither economically nor statistically different from zero. JEL Classification: D11, D12, D14liquidity constraints, randomized trials, subprime credit

Labor market institutions and the business cycle Unemployment rigidities vs. real wage rigidities

This paper investigates the importance of labor market institutions for inflation and unemployment dynamics. Using the New Keynesian framework we argue that labor market institutions should be divided into those institutions that cause Unemployment Rigidities (UR) and those that cause Real Wage Rigidities (RWR). The two types of institutions have opposite effects and their interaction is crucial for the dynamics of inflation and unemployment. We estimate a panel VAR with deterministically varying coefficients and find that there is a profound difference in the responses of unemployment and inflation to shocks under different constellations of the labor market. JEL Classification: E32, E24, E52business cycle, Labor Market Search, monetary policy, Real Wage Rigidity, Unemployment

Idealism and Actualization. Saint-Just in Theory, Practice, and Exigency

Louis-Antoine Léon de Saint-Just (1767-1794) was a revolutionary, a statesman, and a political philosopher, yet it is largely only as a revolutionary that he is remembered. As a political person who occupied these three different but overlapping roles, Saint-Just is ideal as the subject and center of a study of actualization, the taking of political ideals into reality. Saint-Just’s political philosophy was that of an idealist, and yet he, by force of circumstance, ability, and audacity, had the opportunity in his short life to attempt to establish and put into practice his political ideals. In his work as a political person Saint-Just created templates for the understanding of the relationship between political theory and political action. Saint-Just’s political theory is examined in relation to his political action, using the concepts of ‘the natural’, ‘the civil’, ‘the social’ and ‘the political’, concepts which are central in Saint-Just’s political philosophy. Saint-Just’s formulations of these concepts, concepts which have also been central to the history of political philosophy, and his understanding of the relations between these concepts, helps to establish him as a political philosopher of some importance, as does the theory and practice approach to politics which his attempts demanded and which his political life demonstrated. In Saint-Just’s function as political philosopher the thesis finds the theoretical element of politics, which becomes redefined in its interaction with Saint-Just’s other functions as statesman and revolutionary, the latter two of which correspond roughly to practice and exigency. As a theorist who is also a statesman in a context of exigency, or revolution, Saint-Just’s political life is a constantly rearranged juxtaposition of theory, practice, and revolution, albeit one which never loses it essential ties to its philosophical base, even in the hours of greatest emergency. Such dedication to a philosophical base, one which refuses to dispense with political philosophy, demonstrates a new conception of political philosophy for the modern world, fills in elements of a theory of revolution as a phenomenon of both theory and action, and provides a contained case for examination of political philosophy and political action, questioning their disunity

Novel Diagnostic and Prognostic Aspects of HPV-Related and -Unrelated Oropharyngeal Cancer

The incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) has been rapidly increasing in recent decades and OPSCC is currently the 12th most common cancer worldwide. Currently in Finland, close to 200 new OPSCCs are diagnosed annually, whereas in the 1990s the annual number of diagnosed cases was approximately 50. The main driver behind this phenomenon is high-risk (HR) human papillomavirus (HPV) that currently comprises more than a half of new OPSCCs in numerous Western countries including Finland. HPV-positive OPSCC differs distinctly in genetic and pathophysiologic profiles from HPV-negative OPSCC. Both HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC are typically diagnosed at an advanced stage and thus require multimodal treatment approaches that often impair quality of life. In addition, the accuracy to detect HPV in tumor samples has remained suboptimal in clinical practice. The recognition of early clinical signs and finding of reliable diagnostic tools are essential to achieve earlier and accurate diagnosis, respectively. In general, the prognosis of HPV-positive OPSCC patients is excellent and thus there is an initiative to de-escalate the management protocol to decrease the incidence of treatment-related side-effects. Instead, the prognosis of patients with HPV-negative OPSCC has remained poor regardless of improvements in treatment strategies. Hence, new prognostic markers are necessary to develop better and personalized treatment strategies to improve patient outcome and avoid a treatment-related reduction in quality of life. We aimed to compare different HPV-detection methods against the standard method i.e. p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) to increase the accuracy of detecting active HPV from OPSCC samples. In addition, we wanted to better understand the clinical behavior and early signs and symptoms of HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC. We also studied the role of other oncoviruses (Epstein-Barr virus [EBV] and polyomaviruses) in OPSCC and potential prognostic markers including tumor volume, matrix metalloproteinase-8 and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1). In situ hybridization (ISH) for HR HPV E6/E7 mRNA was found to be a superior method to detect active HPV in OPSCC and thus should be considered as an additional method to p16 IHC. The accurate HPV diagnostics is especially essential when considering de-escalated treatment for HPV-positive OPSCC patients. In our study cohort, HPV presented as the only virus that clearly stratified patients into two different disease entities by clinical behavior and prognosis. However, HPV may not be the only viral factor related to OPSCC. EBV, or more precisely EBV-encoded small RNA (EBER), was found to correlate significantly with HPV and the presence EBER was associated with poorer prognosis among HPV-negative patients. Tumor volume showed prognostic significance in both HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC and was superior when compared with the most recent TNM classification. In addition, elevated TIMP-1 serum levels were significantly associated with poor prognosis in HPV-negative OPSCC patients. As a conclusion, both tumor volume and serum levels of TIMP-1 may serve as potential prognostic factors in OPSCC, especially for patients with HPV-negative tumors that typically have a poor prognosis.Suunielun levyepiteelisyövän ilmaantuvuus on nopeasti kasvanut viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana ja on nykyisin kahdenneksitoista yleisin syöpä maailmanlaajuisesti. Suomessa diagnosoidaan nykyään lähes 200 uutta suunielusyöpää vuosittain, kun 90-luvulla vastaava luku oli noin viisikymmentä. Merkittävin tekijä tämän ilmiön taustalla on ihmisen korkean riskin papilloomavirus (HPV), joka nykypäivänä liittyy yli puoleen tuoreista suunielusyöpätapauksista useissa länsimaissa mukaan lukien Suomessa. HPV-positiivinen suunielusyöpä eroaa merkittävästi geneettiseltä ja patofysiologiselta profiililtaan sekä ennusteeltaan HPV-negatiivisesta suunielusyövästä. Sekä HPV-positiivinen että HPV-negatiivinen suunielusyöpä diagnosoidaan usein vasta taudin myöhäisessä vaiheessa vaatien raskaita hoitomenetelmiä, jotka usein heikentävät elämänlaatua. Lisäksi HPV:n luotettava määrittäminen syöpäkudosnäytteistä on edelleen epätarkkaa käytännön työssä. Taudin varhaisten kliinisten merkkien tunnistaminen ja luotettava diagnostiikka ovat ensiarvoisen tärkeitä aikaisemman ja tarkemman diagnoosin saavuttamiseksi. HPV-positiivisten suunielusyöpäpotilaiden ennuste on yleisesti erinomainen ja tämän vuoksi hoitomenetelmiä on ajateltu kevennettävän hoitoon liittyvien haittavaikutusten vähentämiseksi. Sen sijaan HPV-negatiivisilla suunielusyöpäpotilailla ennuste on pysynyt huonona riippumatta kehittyneistä hoitomenetelmistä. Uudet ennusteelliset merkkiaineet ovat ensiarvoisen tärkeitä parempien ja entistä räätälöidympien hoitomenetelmien kehittämiseksi, jotta potilaiden ennustetta voidaan parantaa ja välttää hoitojen aiheuttama elämänlaadun lasku. Tämän väitöskirjan tavoitteena oli parantaa aktiivisen HPV:n määrittämisen tarkkuutta suunielusyöpäpotilailla vertailemalla eri HPV-määritysmenetelmiä nykyiseen standardimenetelmään eli p16-proteiinin immunohistokemialliseen värjäykseen. Lisäksi halusimme selvittää tarkemmin sekä HPV-positiivisen että HPV-negatiivisen suunielusyövän kliinistä ilmentymistä ja taudin varhaisia merkkejä ja oireita. Tutkimme myös eri virusten roolia suunielusyövässä (Epstein-Barrin virus [EBV] ja polyomavirukset). Lisäksi halusimme selvittää, onko kasvaintilavuudella, matriksin metalloproteinaasi-8:lla ja metalloproteinaasin kudosestäjä-1:llä (TIMP-1) ennusteellista vaikutusta HPV-positiivisessa ja HPV-negatiivisessa suunielusyövässä. Tutkimuksessamme mRNA in situ hybridisaatio (ISH) -menetelmä osoittautui erinomaiseksi ja muita menetelmiä paremmaksi määrittämään aktiivisen HPV:n syöpäkudosnäytteistä. Sitä tulisikin harkita lisämenetelmäksi p16-määrityksen rinnalle. Aineistossamme HPV osoittautui ainoaksi virukseksi, joka selkeästi jakaa suunielusyöpäpotilaat kahteen eri ryhmään niin kliinispatologisten tekijöiden kuin ennusteenkin suhteen. HPV ei välttämättä ole kuitenkaan ainoa suunielusyöpään liittyvä virus. Tutkimuksessamme EBV, tarkemmin EBV:n RNA-partikkelien (EBER) esiintyminen korreloi merkittävästi HPV:n kanssa syöpäkudosnäytteissä. Lisäksi EBER-positiivisuus oli huonon ennusteen merkki HPV-negatiivisilla potilailla. Kasvaintilavuus oli merkittävä ennusteellinen tekijä sekä HPV-positiivisilla että HPV-negatiivisilla suunielusyöpäpotilailla ja sen ennusteellinen arvo oli nykyistä TNM-luokitusta parempi. Lisäksi HPV-negatiivisilla potilailla seerumin kohonnut TIMP-1 pitoisuus korreloi merkittävästi huonompaan ennusteeseen. Sekä tuumoritilavuus että TIMP-1 seerumipitoisuus voivat mahdollisesti toimia ennusteellisina tekijöinä suunielusyöpäpotilailla, etenkin HPV-negatiivisessa taudissa, jossa tiedetään edelleen olevan huono ennuste