Preface

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On the Role of NAO Driven Interannual Variability in Rainfall Seasonality on Water Resources and Hydrologic Design in a Typical Mediterranean Basin

In the last several decades, extended dry periods have affected the Mediterranean area with dramatic impacts on water resources. Climate models are predicting further warming, with negative effects on water availability. The authors analyze the hydroclimatic tendencies of a typical Mediterranean basin, the Flumendosa basin located in Sardinia, an island in the center of the Mediterranean Sea, where in the last 30 years a sequence of dry periods has seriously impacted the water management system. Interestingly, in the historic record the annual runoff reductions have been more pronounced than the annual precipitation reductions. This paper performs an analysis that links this runoff decrease to changes in the total annual precipitation and its seasonal structure. The seasonality is a key determinant of the surface runoff process, as it reflects the degree to which rainfall is concentrated during the winter. The observed reductions in winter precipitation are shown here to be well correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.5) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Considering the predictability of the winter NAO, there is by extension an opportunity to predict future winter precipitation and runoff tendencies. The recent hydroclimatic trends are shown to impact hydrologic design criteria for water resources planning. The authors demonstrate that there is a dangerous increase of the drought severity viewed from the perspective of water resources planning

‘No, niente appello!’: How De Gasperi Sent Guareschi to Prison

The article focuses on the legal proceedings between Prime Minister Alcide De Gasperi and editor Giovannino Guareschi at the Milan tribunal in Italy. Guareschi was convicted of libel counted upon by the British evidence. He was accused of forgery of the letters that he reproduced against De Gasperi

On the dynamics of social conflicts: looking for the Black Swan

This paper deals with the modeling of social competition, possibly resulting in the onset of extreme conflicts. More precisely, we discuss models describing the interplay between individual competition for wealth distribution that, when coupled with political stances coming from support or opposition to a government, may give rise to strongly self-enhanced effects. The latter may be thought of as the early stages of massive, unpredictable events known as Black Swans, although no analysis of any fully-developed Black Swan is provided here. Our approach makes use of the framework of the kinetic theory for active particles, where nonlinear interactions among subjects are modeled according to game-theoretical tools.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Fundamental diagrams for kinetic equations of traffic flow

In this paper we investigate the ability of some recently introduced discrete kinetic models of vehicular traffic to catch, in their large time behavior, typical features of theoretical fundamental diagrams. Specifically, we address the so-called "spatially homogeneous problem" and, in the representative case of an exploratory model, we study the qualitative properties of its solutions for a generic number of discrete microstates. This includes, in particular, asymptotic trends and equilibria, whence fundamental diagrams originate.Comment: 14 page

Effect of rhTSH on Lipids

Background: Subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with increased blood lipid levels. However, the exact role of thyrotropin (TSH) alone is not clear. In order to clarify this point, we analysed the acute effect of recombinant human TSH (rhTSH) administration on lipid levels. Methods: Sera of 27 premenopausal women with well-differentiated thyroid cancer were analysed. Patients that underwent a total thyroidectomy, ablation with I-131 (Iodine 131) and rhTSH administration as a part of routine follow-up American Thyroid Association guidelines were included. The protocol consists of 2 intramuscular injections of 0.9 mg of rhTSH, performed on day 1 day and day 2, with blood collection on day 1 (before rhTSH administration), and day 5. TSH, free thyroxine, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc), and triglycerides were assessed in all the samples, before and four days after the first administration of rhTSH. Results: Total cholesterol and triglycerides significantly increased after stimulation of rhTSH (respectively, 192 +/- 33 vs. 207 +/- 26, p = 0.036 and 72 +/- 23 vs. 85 +/- 23, p = 0.016). LDLc and HDLc showed comparable concentrations before and after the test (respectively, 115 +/- 27 vs. 126 +/- 22, p = 0.066, and 62 +/- 15 vs. 64 +/- 15, p = 0.339), while non-HDLc increased after stimulation (130 +/- 30 vs. 143 +/- 25, p = 0.045). Conclusion: TSH has a direct effect on total cholesterol, triglycerides, and nonHDLc. Explanation of these phenomena will require additional studies

Thyroid function in elderly people: The role of subclinical thyroid disorders in cognitive function and mood alterations

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Effects of loperamide on the human hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis in vivo and in vitro.

Loperamide, an opiate agonist of high specificity for p-receptors, was recently reported to suppress ACTH and cortisol levels in normal subjects, but not in patients with proven ACTH-dependent Cushing’s disease. However, there is little information on the site of action of loperamide in the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis of man. We investigated the effect of loperamide on pituitary hormone secretion in uiuo and in vitro. In seven normal subjects, basal ACTH plasma levels were significantly suppressed 3 h after loperamide administration (16 mg, orally) from 5 + 1 to 2 f 0 pmol/L (P < 0.0001). After the combined pituitary stimulation test (100 pg human CRH, 100 rg GnRH, 100 pg GH-releasing hormone, and 200 pg TRH), the ACTH peak (maximum increase at 30 min) was significantly blunted by loperamide from 9 + 1 to 4 of: 1 pmol/L (P < 0.001) and the area under the curve of ACTH from O-120 min was reduced from 35 + 5 to 23 + 4 pmol/L.2 h (P < 0.05). In the insulin-hypoglycemia test (0.15 IU/kg BW), neither the ACTH peak nor the area under the curve of ACTH was affected by loperamide. In six patients with Cushing’s disease and one patient with secondary adrenal insufficency due to hypothalamic failure, neither basal ACTH and cortisol levels nor CRH-stimulated levels were influenced by loperamide. In four cultured human corticotropic adenomas, loperamide was not able to reduce basal and CRH-induced ACTH secretion. In summary, loperamide is able to reduce basal and CRHinduced ACTH and cortisol levels in normal subjects, but not in patients with Cushing’s disease or secondary adrenal failure of hypothalamic origin. Loperamide has no significant effect on insulin-hypoglycemia- induced ACTH and cortisol levels and, therefore, no effect on stress-induced elevation of cortisol levels. Loperamide might act at a suprapituitary site in man in viuo, but, nevertheless, a pituitary site cannot be excluded

An artificial neural network approach for modelling the ward atmosphere in a medical unit

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been developed, implemented and tested on the basis of a four-year-long experimental data set, with the aim of analyzing the performance and clinical outcome of an existing medical ward, and predicting the effects that possible readjustments and/or interventions on the structure may produce on it. Advantages of the ANN technique over more traditional mathematical models are twofold: on one hand, this approach deals quite naturally with a large number of parameters/variables, and also allows to identify those variables which do not play a crucial role in the system dynamics; on the other hand, the implemented ANN can be more easily used by a staff of non-mathematicians in the unit, as an on-site predictive tool. As such, the ANN model is particularly suitable for the case study. The predictions from the ANN technique are then compared and contrasted with those obtained from a generalized kinetic approach previously proposed and tested by the authors. The comparison on the two case periods shows the ANN predictions to be somewhat closer to the experimental values. However, the mean deviations and the analysis of the statistical coefficients over a span of multiple years suggest the kinetic model to be more reliable in the long run, i.e., its predictions can be considered as acceptable even on periods that are quite far away from the two case periods over which the many parameters of the model had been optimized. The approach under study, referring to paradigms and methods of physical and mathematical models integrated with psychosocial sciences, has good chances of gaining the attention of the scientific community in both areas, and hence of eventually obtaining wider diffusion and generalization.

Carotid beta stiffness association with thyroid function

Background: Thyroid hormone modulation of cardiovascular function has been associated with cardiovascular disease. Recent evidence suggests that free thyroxine (FT4) levels are associated with an increase in systemic arterial stiffness, but little is known about the effects of FT4 at the local level of the common carotid artery. β-stiffness index is a local elastic parameter usually determined by carotid ultrasound imaging. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis in the ProgeNIA cohort, including 4846 subjects across a broad age range. For the purpose of this study, we excluded subjects with increased thyrotropin (TSH) levels and those treated with levothyroxine or thyrostatic. We assessed β stiffness, strain, wall–lumen ratio, carotid cross-sectional area (CSA), and stress and flow in the right common carotid artery. We tested whether FT4, heart rate, and their interactions were associated with carotid parameters. Results: FT4 was positively and independently associated with β stiffness index (β = 0.026, p = 0.041), and had a negative association with strain (β = −0.025, p = 0.009). After adding heart rate and the interaction between FT4 and heart rate to the model, FT4 was still associated with the β stiffness index (β = 0.186, p = 0.06), heart rate was positively associated with the stiffness index (β = 0.389, p &lt; 0.001) as well as their interaction (β = 0.271, p = 0.007). Conclusion: This study suggests that higher FT4 levels increase arterial stiffness at the common carotid level, consistent with a detrimental effect on elastic arteries. The effect of FT4 is likely to be primarily attributable to its effect on heart rate