The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed

The effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the health impact of climate change:a systematic review of systematic reviews

Climate change is likely to be one of the most important threats to public health in the coming years. Yet despite the large number of papers considering the health impact of climate change, few have considered what public health interventions may be of most value in reducing the disease burden. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the disease burden of high priority climate sensitive diseases

Effect of household-based drinking water chlorination on diarrhoea among children under five in Orissa, India: a double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Boiling, disinfecting, and filtering water within the home can improve the microbiological quality of drinking water among the hundreds of millions of people who rely on unsafe water supplies. However, the impact of these interventions on diarrhoea is unclear. Most studies using open trial designs have reported a protective effect on diarrhoea while blinded studies of household water treatment in low-income settings have found no such effect. However, none of those studies were powered to detect an impact among children under five and participants were followed-up over short periods of time. The aim of this study was to measure the effect of in-home water disinfection on diarrhoea among children under five. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a double-blind randomised controlled trial between November 2010 and December 2011. The study included 2,163 households and 2,986 children under five in rural and urban communities of Orissa, India. The intervention consisted of an intensive promotion campaign and free distribution of sodium dichloroisocyanurate (NaDCC) tablets during bi-monthly households visits. An independent evaluation team visited households monthly for one year to collect health data and water samples. The primary outcome was the longitudinal prevalence of diarrhoea (3-day point prevalence) among children aged under five. Weight-for-age was also measured at each visit to assess its potential as a proxy marker for diarrhoea. Adherence was monitored each month through caregiver's reports and the presence of residual free chlorine in the child's drinking water at the time of visit. On 20% of the total household visits, children's drinking water was assayed for thermotolerant coliforms (TTC), an indicator of faecal contamination. The primary analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis. Binomial regression with a log link function and robust standard errors was used to compare prevalence of diarrhoea between arms. We used generalised estimating equations to account for clustering at the household level. The impact of the intervention on weight-for-age z scores (WAZ) was analysed using random effect linear regression. Over the follow-up period, 84,391 child-days of observations were recorded, representing 88% of total possible child-days of observation. The longitudinal prevalence of diarrhoea among intervention children was 1.69% compared to 1.74% among controls. After adjusting for clustering within household, the prevalence ratio of the intervention to control was 0.95 (95% CI 0.79-1.13). The mean WAZ was similar among children of the intervention and control groups (-1.586 versus -1.589, respectively). Among intervention households, 51% reported their child's drinking water to be treated with the tablets at the time of visit, though only 32% of water samples tested positive for residual chlorine. Faecal contamination of drinking water was lower among intervention households than controls (geometric mean TTC count of 50 [95% CI 44-57] per 100 ml compared to 122 [95% CI 107-139] per 100 ml among controls [p<0.001] [n = 4,546]). CONCLUSIONS: Our study was designed to overcome the shortcomings of previous double-blinded trials of household water treatment in low-income settings. The sample size was larger, the follow-up period longer, both urban and rural populations were included, and adherence and water quality were monitored extensively over time. These results provide no evidence that the intervention was protective against diarrhoea. Low compliance and modest reduction in water contamination may have contributed to the lack of effect. However, our findings are consistent with other blinded studies of similar interventions and raise additional questions about the actual health impact of household water treatment under these conditions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.govNCT01202383 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Volunteer Bias in Recruitment, Retention, and Blood Sample Donation in a Randomised Controlled Trial Involving Mothers and Their Children at Six Months and Two Years: A Longitudinal Analysis

BACKGROUND: The vulnerability of clinical trials to volunteer bias is under-reported. Volunteer bias is systematic error due to differences between those who choose to participate in studies and those who do not. METHODS AND RESULTS: This paper extends the applications of the concept of volunteer bias by using data from a trial of probiotic supplementation for childhood atopy in healthy dyads to explore 1) differences between a) trial participants and aggregated data from publicly available databases b) participants and non-participants as the trial progressed 2) impact on trial findings of weighting data according to deprivation (Townsend) fifths in the sample and target populations. 1) a) Recruits (n = 454) were less deprived than the target population, matched for area of residence and delivery dates (n = 6,893) (mean [SD] deprivation scores 0.09[4.21] and 0.79[4.08], t = 3.44, df = 511, p<0.001). b) i) As the trial progressed, representation of the most deprived decreased. These participants and smokers were less likely to be retained at 6 months (n = 430[95%]) (OR 0.29,0.13-0.67 and 0.20,0.09-0.46), and 2 years (n = 380[84%]) (aOR 0.68,0.50-0.93 and 0.55,0.28-1.09), and consent to infant blood sample donation (n = 220[48%]) (aOR 0.72,0.57-0.92 and 0.43,0.22-0.83). ii) Mothers interested in probiotics or research or reporting infants' adverse events or rashes were more likely to attend research clinics and consent to skin-prick testing. Mothers participating to help children were more likely to consent to infant blood sample donation. 2) In one trial outcome, atopic eczema, the intervention had a positive effect only in the over-represented, least deprived group. Here, data weighting attenuated risk reduction from 6.9%(0.9-13.1%) to 4.6%(-1.4-+10.5%), and OR from 0.40(0.18-0.91) to 0.56(0.26-1.21). Other findings were unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Potential for volunteer bias intensified during the trial, due to non-participation of the most deprived and smokers. However, these were not the only predictors of non-participation. Data weighting quantified volunteer bias and modified one important trial outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This randomised, double blind, parallel group, placebo controlled trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Register, Number (ISRCTN) 26287422. Registered title: Probiotics in the prevention of atopy in infants and children

Estimating the global burden of disease of mild mental retardation and cardiovascular diseases from environmental lead exposure.

Abstract The disease burden from exposure to lead resulting in mild mental retardation (due to IQ point decreases) and cardiovascular outcomes (due to increases in blood pressure) was estimated at a global level. Blood lead levels were compiled from the literature for 14 geographical regions defined by the World Health Organization according to location and adult and child mortality rates. Adjustments were applied to these levels, where appropriate, to account for recent changes relating to the implementation of leadreduction programs and the lower levels seen in rural populations. It is estimated that mild mental retardation and cardiovascular outcomes resulting from exposure to lead amount to almost 1% of the global burden of disease, with the highest burden in developing regions. This estimate can be used to assess the magnitude of the benefits that could be accrued by increasing the global coverage of lead-reduction programs.

Routine serum biomarkers, but not dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, correlate with cortical bone mineral density in children and young adults with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) are thought to be poor predictors of bone mineral density (BMD). The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes guidelines suggest using DXA if the results will affect patient management, but this has not been studied in children or young adults in whom bone mineral accretion continues to 30 years of age. We studied the clinical utility of DXA and serum biomarkers against tibial cortical BMD (CortBMD) measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography, expressed as Z-score CortBMD, which predicts fracture risk. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional multicentre study in 26 patients with CKD4 and 5 and 77 on dialysis. RESULTS: Significant bone pain that hindered activities of daily living was present in 58%, and 10% had at least one low-trauma fracture. CortBMD and cortical mineral content Z-scores were lower in dialysis compared with CKD patients (P = 0.004 and P = 0.02). DXA BMD hip and lumbar spine Z-scores did not correlate with CortBMD or biomarkers. CortBMD was negatively associated with parathyroid hormone (PTH; r = -0.44, P < 0.0001) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP; r = -0.22, P = 0.03) and positively with calcium (Ca; r = 0.33, P = 0.001). At PTH <3 times upper limit of normal, none of the patients had a CortBMD below -2 SD (odds ratio 95% confidence interval 7.331 to infinity). On multivariable linear regression PTH (β = -0.43 , P < 0.0001), ALP (β = -0.36, P < 0.0001) and Ca (β = 0.21, P = 0.005) together predicted 57% of variability in CortBMD. DXA measures did not improve this model. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, routinely used biomarkers, PTH, ALP and Ca, but not DXA, are moderate predictors of cortical BMD. DXA is not clinically useful and should not be routinely performed in children and young adults with CKD 4-5D

Nutritional safety and suitability of a specific protein hydrolysate derived from whey protein concentrate and used in an infant and follow-on formula manufactured from hydrolysed protein by Danone Trading ELN B.V

The European Commission asked EFSA to deliver an opinion on the nutritional safety and suitability of a specific protein hydrolysate. It is derived from whey protein concentrate and used in an infant and follow-on formula by Danone Trading ELN B.V, which submitted a dossier to the European Commission to request an amendment of Regulation (EU) 2016/127 with respect to the protein sources that may be used in the manufacture of infant and/or follow-on formula. This opinion does not cover the assessment of the safety of the food enzymes used in the manufacture of the protein hydrolysate. The protein hydrolysate under evaluation is sufficiently characterised with respect to the fraction of the hydrolysed protein. In the pertinent intervention study provided, an infant formula manufactured from the protein hydrolysate with a protein content of 2.3&nbsp;g/100&nbsp;kcal and consumed as the sole source of nutrition by infants for 3.5&nbsp;months led to growth equivalent to a formula manufactured from intact cow's milk protein (2&nbsp;g protein/100&nbsp;kcal). No experimental data have been provided on the nutritional safety and suitability of this protein source in follow-on formula. However, given that it is consumed with complementary foods and the protein source is considered nutritionally safe and suitable in an infant formula that is the sole source of nutrition of infants, the Panel&nbsp;considers that the protein hydrolysate is also a nutritionally safe and suitable protein source for use in follow-on formula. The Panel&nbsp;concludes that the protein hydrolysate under evaluation is a nutritionally safe and suitable protein source for use in infant and follow-on formula, as long as the formula in which it is used contains a minimum of 2.3&nbsp;g/100&nbsp;kcal protein and complies with the compositional criteria of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/127 and the amino acid pattern in its Annex IIIA

Bone Mineral Density and Vascular Calcification in Children and Young Adults With CKD 4 to 5 or on Dialysis

Introduction: Older adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) can have low bone mineral density (BMD) with concurrent vascular calcification. Mineral accrual by the growing skeleton may protect young people with CKD from extraosseous calcification. Our hypothesis was that children and young adults with increasing BMD do not develop vascular calcification. Methods: This was a multicenter longitudinal study in children and young people (5–30 years) with CKD stages 4 to 5 or on dialysis. BMD was assessed by tibial peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) and lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The following cardiovascular imaging tests were undertaken: cardiac computed tomography for coronary artery calcification (CAC), ultrasound for carotid intima media thickness z-score (cIMTz), pulse wave velocity z-score (PWVz), and carotid distensibility for arterial stiffness. All measures are presented as age-adjusted and sex-adjusted z-scores. Results: One hundred participants (median age 13.82 years) were assessed at baseline and 57 followed up after a median of 1.45 years. Trabecular BMD z-score (TrabBMDz) decreased (P = 0.01), and there was a nonsignificant decrease in cortical BMD z-score (CortBMDz) (P = 0.09). Median cIMTz and PWVz showed nonsignificant increase (P = 0.23 and P = 0.19, respectively). The annualized increase in TrabBMDz (ΔTrabBMDz) was an independent predictor of cIMTz increase (R2 = 0.48, β = 0.40, P = 0.03). Young people who demonstrated statural growth (n = 33) had lower ΔTrabBMDz and also attenuated vascular changes compared with those with static growth (n = 24). Conclusion: This hypothesis-generating study suggests that children and young adults with CKD or on dialysis may develop vascular calcification even as their BMD increases. A presumed buffering capacity of the growing skeleton may offer some protection against extraosseous calcification

Nutritional safety and suitability of a specific protein hydrolysate derived from a whey protein concentrate and used in an infant formula and follow-on formula manufactured from hydrolysed protein by FrieslandCampina Nederland B.V

The European Commission asked EFSA to deliver an opinion on the nutritional safety and suitability of a specific protein hydrolysate. It is derived from a whey protein concentrate and used in an infant and follow-on formula manufactured by FrieslandCampina Nederland B.V., which submitted a dossier to the European Commission to request an amendment of Regulation (EU) 2016/127 with respect to the protein sources that may be used in the manufacture of infant and/or follow-on formula. The protein hydrolysate under evaluation is sufficiently characterised with respect to the fraction of the hydrolysed protein. In the pertinent intervention study provided, an infant formula manufactured from the protein hydrolysate with a protein content of 2.4 g/100 kcal and consumed as the sole source of nutrition by infants for 3 months led to a growth equivalent to a formula manufactured from intact cow's milk protein with a protein content of 2.1 g/100 kcal. Data on gastrointestinal tolerance of the formula did not raise any concerns. No experimental data have been provided on the nutritional safety and suitability of this protein source in follow-on formula. Given that it is consumed with complementary foods and the protein source is nutritionally safe and suitable in an infant formula that is the sole source of nutrition of infants, the Panel considers that the protein hydrolysate is also a nutritionally safe and suitable protein source for use in follow-on formula. The Panel concludes that the protein hydrolysate under evaluation is a nutritionally safe and suitable protein source for use in infant and follow-on formula, as long as the formula in which it is used contains a minimum of 2.4 g/100 kcal protein and complies with the compositional criteria of Regulation (EU) 2016/127 and the amino acid pattern in its Annex IIIA