Predicting Water Cycle Characteristics from Percolation Theory and Observational Data.

The fate of water and water-soluble toxic wastes in the subsurface is of high importance for many scientific and practical applications. Although solute transport is proportional to water flow rates, theoretical and experimental studies show that heavy-tailed (power-law) solute transport distribution can cause chemical transport retardation, prolonging clean-up time-scales greatly. However, no consensus exists as to the physical basis of such transport laws. In percolation theory, the scaling behavior of such transport rarely relates to specific medium characteristics, but strongly to the dimensionality of the connectivity of the flow paths (for example, two- or three-dimensional, as in fractured-porous media or heterogeneous sediments), as well as to the saturation characteristics (i.e., wetting, drying, and entrapped air). In accordance with the proposed relevance of percolation models of solute transport to environmental clean-up, these predictions also prove relevant to transport-limited chemical weathering and soil formation, where the heavy-tailed distributions slow chemical weathering over time. The predictions of percolation theory have been tested in laboratory and field experiments on reactive solute transport, chemical weathering, and soil formation and found accurate. Recently, this theoretical framework has also been applied to the water partitioning at the Earth's surface between evapotranspiration, ET, and run-off, Q, known as the water balance. A well-known phenomenological model by Budyko addressed the relationship between the ratio of the actual evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation, ET/P, versus the aridity index, ET0/P, with P being the precipitation and ET0 being the potential evapotranspiration. Existing work was able to predict the global fractions of P represented by Q and ET through an optimization of plant productivity, in which downward water fluxes affect soil depth, and upward fluxes plant growth. In the present work, based likewise on the concepts of percolation theory, we extend Budyko's model, and address the partitioning of run-off Q into its surface and subsurface components, as well as the contribution of interception to ET. Using various published data sources on the magnitudes of interception and information regarding the partitioning of Q, we address the variability in ET resulting from these processes. The global success of this prediction demonstrated here provides additional support for the universal applicability of percolation theory for solute transport as well as guidance in predicting the component of subsurface run-off, important for predicting natural flow rates through contaminated aquifers

On localized vegetation patterns, fairy circles and localized patches in arid landscapes

We investigate the formation of localized structures with a varying width in one and two-dimensional systems. The mechanism of stabilization is attributed to strong nonlocal coupling mediated by a Lorentzian type of Kernel. We show that, in addition to stable dips found recently [see, e.g., C. Fernandez-Oto, M. G. Clerc, D. Escaff, and M. Tlidi, Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf{110}}, 174101 (2013)], exist stable localized peaks which appear as a result of strong nonlocal coupling, i.e. mediated by a coupling that decays with the distance slower than an exponential. We applied this mechanism to arid ecosystems by considering a prototype model of a Nagumo type. In one-dimension, we study the front that connects the stable uniformly vegetated state with the bare one under the effect of strong nonlocal coupling. We show that strong nonlocal coupling stabilizes both---dip and peak---localized structures. We show analytically and numerically that the width of localized dip, which we interpret as fairy circle, increases strongly with the aridity parameter. This prediction is in agreement with filed observations. In addition, we predict that the width of localized patch decreases with the degree of aridity. Numerical results are in close agreement with analytical predictions

Lacustrine mollusc radiations in the Lake Malawi Basin : experiments in a natural laboratory for evolution

In terminal Pliocene-early Pleistocene times, part of the Malawi Basin was occupied by paleo-lake Chiwondo. Molluscan biostratigraphy situates this freshwater lake either in the East African wet phase between 2.7-2.4 Ma or that of 2.0-1.8 Ma. In-lake divergent evolution remained restricted to a few molluscan taxa and was very modest. The lacustrine Chiwondo fauna went extinct at the beginning of the Pleistocene. The modern Lake Malawi malacofauna is depauperate and descends from ubiquistic southeast African taxa and some Malawi basin endemics that invaded the present lake after the Late Pleistocene mega-droughts. The Pleistocene aridity crises caused dramatic changes, affecting the malacofauna of all East African lakes. All lacustrine endemic faunas that had evolved in the Pliocene rift lakes, such as paleo-lake Chiwondo, became extinct. In Lake Tanganyika, the freshwater ecosystem did not crash as in other lakes, but the environmental changes were sufficiently important to trigger a vast radiation. All African endemic lacustrine molluscan clades that are the result of in-lake divergence are hence geologically young, including the vast Lavigeria clade in Lake Tanganyika (ca. 43 species)

Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow.

Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system

Extended patchy ecosystems may increase their total biomass through self-replication

Patches of vegetation consist of dense clusters of shrubs, grass, or trees, often found to be circular characteristic size, defined by the properties of the vegetation and terrain. Therefore, vegetation patches can be interpreted as localized structures. Previous findings have shown that such localized structures can self-replicate in a binary fashion, where a single vegetation patch elongates and divides into two new patches. Here, we extend these previous results by considering the more general case, where the plants interact non-locally, this extension adds an extra level of complexity and shrinks the gap between the model and real ecosystems, where it is known that the plant-to-plant competition through roots and above-ground facilitating interactions have non-local effects, i.e. they extend further away than the nearest neighbor distance. Through numerical simulations, we show that for a moderate level of aridity, a transition from a single patch to periodic pattern occurs. Moreover, for large values of the hydric stress, we predict an opposing route to the formation of periodic patterns, where a homogeneous cover of vegetation may decay to spot-like patterns. The evolution of the biomass of vegetation patches can be used as an indicator of the state of an ecosystem, this allows to distinguish if a system is in a self-replicating or decaying dynamics. In an attempt to relate the theoretical predictions to real ecosystems, we analyze landscapes in Zambia and Mozambique, where vegetation forms patches of tens of meters in diameter. We show that the properties of the patches together with their spatial distributions are consistent with the self-organization hypothesis. We argue that the characteristics of the observed landscapes may be a consequence of patch self-replication, however, detailed field and temporal data is fundamental to assess the real state of the ecosystems.Comment: 38 pages, 12 figures, 1 tabl

Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids

Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.Fil: Aagesen, Lone. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Academia Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion; ArgentinaFil: Biganzoli, Fernando. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Bena, María Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Academia Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion; ArgentinaFil: Godoy Bürki, Ana Carolina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Academia Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion; ArgentinaFil: Reinheimer, Renata. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Agrobiotecnología del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Agrobiotecnología del Litoral; ArgentinaFil: Zuloaga, Fernando Omar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Academia Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion; Argentin

Vegetation changes and land surface feedbacks drive shifts in local temperatures over Central Asia

Vegetation changes play a vital role in modifying local temperatures although, until now, the climate feedback effects of vegetation changes are still poorly known and large uncertainties exist, especially over Central Asia. In this study, using remote sensing and re-analysis of existing data, we evaluated the impact of vegetation changes on local temperatures. Our results indicate that vegetation changes have a significant unidirectional causality relationship with regard to local temperature changes. We found that vegetation greening over Central Asia as a whole induced a cooling effect on the local temperatures. We also found that evapotranspiration (ET) exhibits greater sensitivity to the increases of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as compared to albedo in arid/semi-arid/semi-humid regions, potentially leading to a cooling effect. However, in humid regions, albedo warming completely surpasses ET cooling, causing a pronounced warming. Our findings suggest that using appropriate strategies to protect vulnerable dryland ecosystems from degradation, should lead to future benefits related to greening ecosystems and mitigation for rising temperatures