Sectoral TFP news shocks

We document a strong similarity in the macroeconomic effects of consumption-specific and investment specific TFP news shocks. This co-linearity suggests a diffusion channel of technological innovations from the investment to the consumption sector that forecast future changes in aggregate TFP. This finding connects two views of the literature on news shocks: aggregate TFP news and investment specific news

Which sectors make the poor countries so unproductive?

Standard growth accounting exercises find large cross-country differences in aggregate TFP. Here we ask whether specific sectors are driving these differences, and, if this is the case, which these problem sectors are. We argue that to answer these questions we need to consider four sectors. In contrast, the literature typically considers only two sectors. Our four sectors produce services (nontradable consumption), consumption goods (tradable consumption), construction (nontradable investment), and machinery and equipment (tradable investment). Interacting the data from the 1996 benchmark study of the Penn World Tables with economic theory, we find that the TFP differences across countries are much larger in the two tradable sectors than in the two nontradable sectors. This is consistent with the Balassa--Samuelson hypothesis. We also find that within the tradable sectors the TFP differences are much larger in machinery and equipment than in consumption goods. We illustrate the usefulness of our findings by accounting for the conflicting results of the existing two--sector analyses and by developing criteria for a successful theory of aggregate TFP

Business and financial services: new engine of economic growth?

Does unbalanced sectoral productivity growth inevitably lead to continuous shift of resources to the less productive sectors and stagnation in aggregate productivity? This paper attempts to integrate the traditional stagnationist and the modern optimist arguments within a numerical simulation framework. The simulation framework consists of an applied general equilibrium multi-sectoral growth model for a small open regional economy that incorporates unbalanced sectoral growth and the growing role of business and financial services as intermediate service providers. The simulation results lend support to the stagnationist view in the long run but reveal some unconventional comparative-static properties in the short- to medium run

Business and Financial Services: New Engine of Economic Growth

Original paper can be found at: http://www.ecomod.net/conferences/ecomod2006/ecomod2006.htmDoes the continuous shift of resources from the traditional sectors to the business and financial services sector imply inevitable stagnation in the aggregate productivity growth in the developed economies Economic inquiry into this issue has generated contradictory conclusions. This paper evaluates the traditional stagnationist and the modern optimist arguments and employs an applied general equilibrium multi-sectoral growth model to simulate the impact of unbalanced sectoral productivity growth on the overall productivity growth path. A particular focus is on the relationship between a sector s industrial linkages and its impact on overall growth. The simulation results suggest that the actual aggregate productivity growth path in the long-run deviates from either case

Financial Frictions on Capital Allocation: A Transmission Mechanism of TFP Fluctuations

This paper provides a theory of financial frictions as a transmission mechanism for primitive shocks to translate into aggregate TFP fluctuations. In our model, financial frictions distort existing capital allocation across different production units, rather than investment in new capital. News shocks on future technology improvement are introduced as a device to identify TFP fluctuations originating from this mechanism. Our simulation shows that variations in financial frictions in response to news shocks can generate sizable fluctuations in aggregate TFP and, thus, business cycles before the actual technology change is realized. Using a combined dataset from Compustat and IBES, we find that the empirical responses of capital acquisition to prospects about future profitability are significantly larger for firms more likely to be financially constrained, while such a pattern does not exist for new capital investment. Furthermore, capital acquisition of constrained firms is found to be more procyclical than that for unconstrained ones. Our evidence thus provides strong support for the importance of financial frictions on capital allocation as the transmission mechanism proposed by our theory.Financial Friction, Capital Reallocation, TFP Fluctuation, News Shock

Dual Economies and International Total Factor Productivity Differences

This paper shows that a significant part of measured total factor productivity (TFP) differences across countries is attributable not to technological factors that affect the entire economy neutrally, but rather, to variations in the structural composition of economies. In particular, the allocation of scarce inputs between agriculture and non-agriculture is important. We provide a framework which maps the composition of the economy to measured aggregate TFP. A decomposition analysis suggests that as much as 85 percent of the international variation in TFP can be attributed to the composition of output. Estimation exercises indicate that recent findings of the conduciveness of good institutions, and, to some extent trade, on levels of TFP, may be thus explained.

Dual Economies and International Total Factory Productivity Differences

This paper shows that a significant part of measured total factor productivity (TFP) differences across countries is attributable not to technological factors that affect the entire economy neutrally, but rather, to variations in the structural composition of economies. In particular, the allocation of scarce inputs between agriculture and non- agriculture is important. We provide a framework which maps the composition of the economy to measured aggregate TFP. A decomposition analysis suggests that as much as 85 percent of the international variation in TFP can be attributed to the composition of output. Estimation exercises indicate that recent findings of the conduciveness of good institutions, and, to some extent trade, on levels of TFP, may be thus explained.Development Accounting, Dual Economy, Structural Change, Total Factor Productivity, Institutions, Geography, Multisector Growth Models

The structural transformation between manufacturing and services and the deline in the U.S. GDP volatility

For a single firm with a given volatility of total factor productivity at the gross output level (GTFP), the volatility of total factor productivity at the value added level (YTFP) increases with the share of intermediate goods in gross output. For a Cobb-Douglas production function in capital, labor and intermediate goods, YTFP volatility is equal to GTFP volatility divided by one minus the share of intermediate goods in gross output. In the U.S., this share is steadily around 0.6 for manufacturing and 0.38 for services during the 1960-2005 period. Thus, the same level of GTFP volatility in the two sectors implies a 55% larger YTFP volatility in manufacturing. This fact contributes to the higher measured YTFP volatility in manufacturing with respect to services. It follows that, as the services share in GDP increases from 0.53 in 1960 to 0.71 in 2005 in the U.S., GDP volatility is reduced. I construct a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium input-output model to quantify the role of the structural transformation between manufacturing and services in reducing the U.S. GDP volatility. Numerical results for the calibrated model economy suggest that the structural transformation can account for 32% of the GDP volatility reduction between the 1960-1983 and the 1984-2005 periods

The Impact of ICT on Growth in Transition Economies

The paper analyzes the multi-channel contribution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to output and labour productivity growth in eight transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), i.e. Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Slovenia between 1995-2001. The impact of ICT on growth in the new five EU member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) was higher than the average for the former EU-15. Hence, ICT - through both the capital deepening and TFP growth in ICT-producing sector - contributed to convergence of the level of income between those countries and the EU-15. This was however not the case for Bulgaria, Romania, and Russia, where ICT contribution to growth was lower than in the EU- 15. ICT thus led to income deconvergence. Future growth prospects of the CEE countries, including Russia, will largely depend on further ICT investments and an ability to ensure their productive use on a macro, industry and micro level. The paper speculates that ICT capital will have a significant contribution to long-term growth in Poland, taken as a proxy for other CEE countries, on the level of 15% of the projected average annual GDP growth of 4% until 2025. This projection does not however take into account the potential for emergence of new applications of ICT, which could stimulate further increases in aggregate productivity. Neither does it measure the possible contribution from TFP growth in ICT sector and from the spillover effects of ICT production and use. The paper argues that the potential of ICT will not however be realized without changes in business models and an increase in the quality of human capital and ICT skills. On the macrolevel, as indicated by the New Economy Indicator, ICT will not benefit CEE countries without them making consistent progress in economic, institutional and regulatory environment.productivity, ICT, Eastern Europe

Biased Technical Change, Intermediate Goods and Total Factor Productivity

Biased technical change can be defined as changes that affect the elasticity of output with respect to inputs. In this paper, I analyze the effect of biased technical change on total factor productivity (TFP). I construct an input-output economy in which firms produce gross output using capital, labor and intermediate goods. In equilibrium, biased technical change appears as an explicit part of TFP in the value added aggregate production function, where the latter is obtained through the aggregation of individual firms optimal decisions. A larger elasticity of gross output with respect to intermediates implies a smaller TFP level. I use the model to quantify the impact of biased technical change for measured TFP growth in Italy. The exercise shows that biased technical change can account for the productivity slowdown observed in Italy from 1994 to 2004