Afforestation and Timber Management Compliance Strategies in Climate Policy. A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyzes the role of afforestation-reforestation and timber management activities, and their major and secondary economic effects in stabilizing climate during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In particular, with a Computable General Equilibrium framework, the ICES model, it is inferred how forest carbon sequestration fits within the European domestic portfolio of a 2020-20 and 2020-30 climate stabilization policy. Afforestation and land use are accounted for by introducing their effects in the model. This is done by relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by Sohngen (2005), which describe the average annual cost of sequestration for selected world regions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs if included. By allowing afforestation alone it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2% compared with the cost of a 20% emissions reduction without afforestation. The introduction of these alternatives for mitigating climate is expected to reduce carbon price by around 30% in 2020 and the already contained leakage effect (around 1%), coming from an independent European commitment, by 0.2%.Climate Change, General Equilibrium Modelling, Forestry, Afforestation

The Potential Economic Returns of Converting Agricultural Land to Forestry: An Analysis of System and Soil Effects from 1995 to 2009

peer-reviewedPrivate land owners have been responsible for the majority of annual afforestation in Ireland since the mid1990s, but planting rates have generally been declining since 2002. Although the decision to plant may be driven by a number of factors, the profitability of forestry as a landuse option should be an important driver and offer some insight into trends in afforestation rates. As farmers undertake most afforestation in Ireland it is important to account for the opportunity cost of lost agricultural income when analysing the financial outcome of planting. In addition, soil quality plays an essential role in dictating the productivity and profitability of both agriculture and forestry. This study examines the effects of soil quality and superseded agricultural system on the potential profitability of afforestation by farmers between 1995 and 2009. Data from the National Farm Survey were employed to identify the annual gross margins for six agricultural systems on six soil types that differ in terms of quality. The measures of soil quality were translated into potential yield classes for forestry using an existing productivity model and Teagasc’s Forest Investment and Valuation Estimator was employed to calculate the net present value of afforestation for each of the systems and soil types. The results demonstrate how the competitiveness of forestry as a landuse option is influenced by soil quality and superseded enterprise and how forestry has become more competitive with agricultural enterprises over the period of analysis.Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marin

Can’t See the Wood for the Trees: The Returns to Farm Forestry in Ireland

working paperThe period 2007-2009 witnessed considerable variability in the price of outputs such as milk and cereals and this was compounded by a high degree of volatility in the price of inputs such as fertilizer, animal feed and energy. Previously, Irish farms have used the returns to off-farm employment as well as agricultural support payments such as the Single Farm Payment (SFP) and the Rural Environmental Protection Scheme (REPS) to protect their living standards against low and uncertain agricultural market returns. However, the downturn in the Irish economy has led to a reduction in the availability of off-farm employment and also the discontinuation of REPS. This may lead to an increase in afforestation on Irish farms, as forestry offers greater certainty through the provision of an annual premium in addition to the SFP. However, the decision to afforest represents a significant long-term investment decision that should not be entered into without careful economic consideration. The aim of this paper is to use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis method to calculate the returns to forestry under alternative opportunity costs associated with conventional agricultural activities being superseded. The returns to forestry are calculated using the Forestry Investment Value Estimator (FIVE). These returns were then incorporated in the DCF model along with the returns to five conventional agricultural enterprises, which would potentially be superseded by forestry. This approach allows for the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of three forestry scenarios

Auctioning Conservation Contracts: An Application to the Flemish Afforestation Policy

This paper studies the possibility of using auctions as a policy instrument in conservation programs. In particular, it provides insight into the main concerns that need to be dealt with when implementing conservation auctions. To show the cost saving potential of this policy instrument, we also calculate the social welfare improvement that can be obtained for an afforestation project in Flanders. Creation-Date: 2006-03Auctions; Conservation contracts; Afforestation

Participation of non-industrial private forest owners in National Forest Programmes: a discrete choice model for Northern Portugal

In countries where private forest ownership is very important, knowledge of the behaviour of private forest owners is useful for the design and implementation of successful forest policies. This applies to Portugal where 86 % of the forest lands are private property. This paper presents a study carried out in a region of the Northern part of the country covered by a local forest owners’ association. Based on individual data about the members of this association concerning some of their characteristics (implementation of publicly subsidised afforestation projects, size of the forest holdings, number of forest holdings belonging to the same owner and distance between the permanent residence of the owner and his forest holdings), a multinomial logit model is estimated for the probabilities of participation on public incentive schemes to finance individual and grouped afforestation projects.non industrial private forest owners, afforestation projects, public incentives

Integrating efficiency and Equality considerations in the Evaluation of Public Policies: The Case of an Afforestation Programme in Poland

From an economics perspective, forest policy can be evaluated using an efficiency criterion, but also from a distributional perspective. An instrument that can combine both-the efficiency and distribution al cost-benefit analysis-is presented. The traditional social cost benefit matrix is extended with a matrix showing changes in the distribution of income in the population. A third matrix is also included, combining efficiency and distributional estimators in an abbreviated social welfare functions manner. The procedure is applied to the Polish programme of afforestation of agricultural lands in the 1990s. The study refers to afforestation îfinanced from national public funds on lands of both public and private ownership. The results show improvements in both the income distribution and the social welfare due to the afforestation program.Redistributive Effects, Project Evaluation, Forestry

Zmiany struktury użytkowania ziemi w gospodarstwach rolnych województwa kujawsko-pomorskiego w świetle wyników spisów powszechnych rolnictwa z lat 2002 i 2010

The study presents the results of the spatial analysis of the total area of agricultural holdings as of 2010 and the changes in these figures as recorded in 2002 and 2010, whereby the agricultural acreage (including: arable lands, permanent crops and permanent grassland) and lands excluded from agricultural activities (including: forests, forestlands and other lands) are treated separately. It has been demonstrated that only in Kujavia-Pomerania region increased the total area of agricultural holdings, the agricultural acreage became slightly smaller (by 21 thousand ha) and the area of unutilised agricultural lands – in particular forests – enlarged (by 65.4 thousand ha in the case of forests and other land). The changes varied substantially across the regions as a result of both natural and historical conditions, on the one part, and the Common Agricultural Policy mechanisms, on the other part.Artykuł dotyczy wyników analizy przestrzennej stanu (2010 r.) oraz zmian (lata 2002–2010) ogólnej powierzchni gospodarstw rolnych, z wydzieleniem użytków rolnych (w tym: grunty orne, uprawy trwałe, trwałe użytki zielone) i gruntów nie użytkowanych rolniczo (w tym: lasy i grunty leśne oraz grunty pozostałe). Wykazano, że tylko w województwie kujawsko-pomorskim na tle kraju zwiększyła się ogólna powierzchnia gospodarstw rolnych; nieznacznie zmalała powierzchnia gruntów ornych (ubyło 21 tys. ha); równocześnie odnotowano wzrost areału gruntów nie użytkowanych rolniczo, w tym głównie lasów (przybyło 65,4 tys. ha lasów). Przemiany te były silnie zróżnicowane przestrzennie, uwarunkowane przyrodniczo, historycznie, a także są efektem oddziaływania instrumentów Wspólnej Polityki Rolnej

Satellite evidence for significant biophysical consequences of the “Grain for Green” Program on the Loess Plateau in China

Afforestation has been implemented worldwide as regional and national policies to address environmental problems and to improve ecosystem services. China\u27s central government launched the “Grain for Green” Program (GGP) in 1999 to increase forest cover and to control soil erosion by converting agricultural lands on steep slopes to forests and grasslands. Here a variety of satellite data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer were used to assess the biophysical consequences of the GGP for the Loess Plateau, the pilot region of the program. The average tree cover of the plateau substantially increased because of the GGP, with a relative increase of 41.0%. The GGP led to significant increases in enhanced vegetation index (EVI), leaf area index, and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by canopies. The increase in forest productivity as approximated by EVI was not driven by elevated air temperature, changing precipitation, or rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Moreover, the afforestation significantly reduced surface albedo, leading to a positive radiative forcing and a warming effect on the climate. The GGP also led to a significant decline in daytime land surface temperature and exerted a cooling effect on the climate. The GGP therefore has significant biophysical consequences by altering carbon cycling, hydrologic processes, and surface energy exchange and has significant feedbacks to the regional climate. The net radiative forcing on the climate depends on the offsetting of the negative forcing from carbon sequestration and higher evapotranspiration and the positive forcing from lower albedo

Recent trends in vegetation greenness in China significantly altered annual evapotranspiration and water yield

There has been growing evidence that vegetation greenness has been increasing in many parts of the northern middle and high latitudes including China during the last three to four decades. However, the effects of increasing vegetation greenness particularly afforestation on the hydrological cycle have been controversial. We used a process-based ecosystem model and a satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) dataset to examine how the changes in vegetation greenness affected annual evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield for China over the period from 2000 to 2014. Significant trends in vegetation greenness were observed in 26.1% of China\u27s land area. We used two model simulations driven with original and detrended LAI, respectively, to assess the effects of vegetation \u27greening\u27 and \u27browning\u27 on terrestrial ET and water yield. On a per-pixel basis, vegetation greening increased annual ET and decreased water yield, while vegetation browning reduced ET and increased water yield. At the large river basin and national scales, the greening trends also had positive effects on annual ET and had negative effects on water yield. Our results showed that the effects of the changes in vegetation greenness on the hydrological cycle varied with spatial scale. Afforestation efforts perhaps should focus on southern China with larger water supply given the water crisis in northern China and the negative effects of vegetation greening on water yield. Future studies on the effects of the greenness changes on the hydrological cycle are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate