Visions of Automation: A Comparative Discussion of Two Approaches

In recent years, fears of technological unemployment have (re-)emerged strongly in public discourse. In response, policymakers and researchers have tried to gain a more nuanced understanding of the future of work in an age of automation. In these debates, it has become common practice to signal expertise on automation by referencing a plethora of studies, rather than limiting oneself to the careful discussion of a small number of selected papers whose epistemic limitations one might actually be able to grasp comprehensively. This paper addresses this shortcoming. I will first give a very general introduction to the state of the art of research on potentials for automation, using the German case as an example. I will then provide an in-depth analysis of two studies of the field that exemplify two competing approaches to the question of automatability: studies that limit themselves to discussing technological potentials for automation on the one hand, and macroeconomic scenario methods that claim to provide more concrete assessments of the connection between job losses (or job creation) and technological innovation in the future on the other. Finally, I will provide insight into the epistemic limitations and the specific vices and virtues of these two approaches from the perspective of critical social theory, thereby contributing to a more enlightened and reflexive debate on the future of automation

Crecimiento, automatización y envejecimiento

La automatización y el envejecimiento emergen como factores claves en el crecimiento económico actual de los países desarrollados. En este trabajo se presenta, en primer lugar, un modelo teórico de equilibrio general en el que se analizan las interrelaciones entre crecimiento económico, envejecimiento poblacional y automatización. Se usa como correa de transmisión la participación de las personas mayores en el mundo laboral. Los resultados del modelo establecen que, en un contexto de automatización, las personas más sanas, más cualificadas y cuyos puestos de trabajo tengan menor riesgo de automatización son las que decidirán alargar su vida laboral. En segundo lugar, este trabajo contrasta estos resultados mediante un estudio empírico que utiliza datos del Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) y Mihaylov y Tijdens (2019), durante el periodo 2004-2019 y para 27 países europeos. Las estimaciones econométricas obtenidas avalan los resultados del modelo teórico y ponen de relevancia la necesidad de diseñar políticas públicas que potencien el aprendizaje a lo largo de toda la vida. <br /

The evolution of technological change and its impact on workers. A survey of the literature

none1noThe role played by technological change in the economy and in the labor markets, where it generates both winners and losers, has long been object of debate and investigation. The present paper aims to provide an updated picture of the link between technological progress and labor by surveying the recent literature on this subject. Specifically, it organizes the relevant studies according to the wave of technological change under scrutiny and the selected empirical approach, makes comparisons across articles in the same group and derives some tentative findings. Additionally, this work touches upon an emerging line of research on a related topic, namely, the link between technological change and voting choices. From the reviewed literature, it emerges that, all in all, technological change mainly hinders workers who perform routine tasks and who work in firms that did not keep pace with the digital transformation. At the same time, technological change often increases output and productivity, and can also positively affect employment, especially in the case of workers who perform non-routine tasks and of technologically advanced companies. However, the considerable heterogeneity that affects the surveyed studies makes it difficult to draw general and robust conclusions. A meta-analysis would help overcome such limitation.Working Paper su Collana WP della Scuola di Studi Internazionali-Università degli studi di TrentoopenJasmine MondoloMondolo, Jasmin

"Basic Income is an idea whose time has come": But why here, why now, and in what way?

That Basic Income has received increased attention recently is noted in both academic and media discourse. A critical question about this attention is whether it amounts to more than “just a fad”. Contesting the label of “fad”, this thesis argues that the contemporary attention to Basic Income emerges through interlinked debates around the social understanding of work and the extent of the State. This argument is developed from semi-structured interviews with stakeholders who have relevant expertise in and around the Basic Income discourse, as well as thematic analysis of print media discussion of Basic Income in 2015 – 2017. This thesis examines the significance of the attention through the framework developed by Levitas as the Imaginary Reconstitution of Society. That is, it considers the discourse around Basic Income as fragmentary utopias, containing a mixture of critiques of the present, visions of the future “good society”, and policy proposals to move between the two. This leads to the conclusions that (i) the attention to Basic Income is rather attention to a plurality of Basic Incomes, with different purposes and bases, and (ii) that Basic Income cannot be understood as a policy in isolation, but instead as a part of a broader policy platform

Facets of Information Governance system at the South Africa Council for Social Service Professions

In many organisations, information governance (IG) is implemented in fragmented silos and does not add value. After realising this, South African Council for Social Service Professions (SACSSP), embarked on digital transformation process to modernise the organisation by implementing an information governance system. The SACSSP was experiencing challenges due to the lack of a cogent information technology (IT) system design and the disparaged registration, finance and external verification systems inherited that are not compatible with new system innovations to ensure effective and efficient operations. This study utilised the Control Objective for Information and Related Technology (COBIT) to develop an information governance system at SACSSP, with a view for entrenching a culture of good corporate governance. This critical emancipatory study used qualitative data collected through interviews, focus groups, observation, system and document analysis in response to research questions. The study was a participatory action research project that involved collaboration between the researcher and study participants in defining and solving the problem through needs assessment exercise. In order to address bias, the research findings were reviewed by peers to identify things that might have been missed or gaps that were not addressed. All three phases of participatory action research were followed, namely the ‘look phase’: getting to know stakeholders so that the problem is defined on their terms and the problem definition is reflective of the community context; the ‘think phase’: interpretation and analysis of what was learned in the ‘look phase’; and the ‘act phase’: planning, implementing, and evaluating, based on information collected and interpreted in the first two phases. Data was analysed thematically with the use of Atlas Ti 9 and presented in text, figures, pictures and diagrams. The key findings report on the processes taken by the SACSSP in identifying and implementing the IG system implementation, that is records management, information technology, content management, data governance, information security, data privacy, risk management, litigation readiness, regulatory compliance, long-term digital preservation, and even business intelligence. The results of the analysis suggest that integrated online system implementation, including system architecture can be used to address issues associated with information integrity in the present and near term, with proper IG policy and information & communication technology (ICT) infrastructure in place. It does not, however, guarantee reliability of information in the first place, and would have several limitations as a long term solution for maintaining digital records. The study established that there were no underlying technologies for the implementation of innovation technologies such as, artificial intelligence (AI). Core services of the organisation for social service professionals is dealing with registration related services such: as requirements for registrations; Foreign applications; Registrations fees; Restoration, Banking details. However, the SACSSP was on the right track towards digital transformation of the organisation. The study suggests a framework for information governance to assist professional organisations and board members to adopt a tailored governance system that would be designed according to their needs. It can be concluded that a successful IG system can be attained through adoption of principles and related accountabilities with a clear strategic direction that is supported by organisational business units. The study recommends that organisations need to make an emphasis of a holistic approach to IG in order to empower a board to coordinate and integrate decision making across the organisation.Information ScienceD. Litt. et Phil. (Information Science

Psychosocial determinants of entrepreneurial readiness: the role of TVET institutions in Nigeria.

Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.Scholarly works in recent times have made substantial efforts to identify that aspects of entrepreneurship that can stimulate entrepreneurial readiness for venture creation. Perhaps some of the most investigated subjects are personality traits, education, and social values. Previous studies on the need for entrepreneurial skills have established a disparity between the curriculum, pedagogical methods and the required skills for business creation. As a result, identifying the determinants of entrepreneurial readiness is of utmost necessity considering the increasing rate of youth unemployment in Nigeria. This current study aimed at determining psychosocial factors of entrepreneurial readiness by examining the influence of entrepreneurship education (EE), entrepreneurial self-efficacy (ESE) and individual entrepreneurial orientation (IEO) on entrepreneurial readiness. This research study was sustained by the pragmatism philosophical paradigm. Case study research design was employed, and the mixed method approach was used in the collection of data for the purpose of triangulation of results. Through the use of triangulation technique, questionnaires were administered to a sample of 301 exit level students of three selected Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions in South-West Nigeria, using convenience sampling strategy. A response rate of 96% from the students was achieved. With the adoption of purposive sampling technique, nine entrepreneurship teachers were selected for in-depth interviews from the three selected TVET institutions. Eight of the respondents granted the interviews, which was 88% response rate. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data was achieved through the use of NVivo 12 software. SPSS version 25 was used in analysing the quantitative data. Descriptive and inferential statistics which include, Pearson’s correlation and regression analyses of the quantitative data were conducted to achieved the research objectives. Three hypotheses were formulated to test the conceptual model through multiple regression analysis. A significant association was found between EE and entrepreneurial readiness. ESE searching, planning and implementing were found to be significantly associated with entrepreneurial readiness, but ESE marshalling has no significant association with entrepreneurial readiness. IEO as a whole showed significant association with entrepreneurial readiness, while risk-taking propensity was non-significant with entrepreneurial readiness. The study established that the exit level students lack the skills to gather economic or business resources towards starting a business. The study also revealed that entrepreneurship curriculum at the selected TVET institutions lacks practical approach. There is no evidence in literature that attempts a mixed method approach to determine psychosocial factors of students’ entrepreneurial readiness in the context of TVET institutions in Nigeria. The outcome of this study revealed that EE, ESE and IEO are psychosocial determinants of entrepreneurial readiness

Here Comes the Robot: Measuring the Risk of Automation of Human Competences through a Quantitative Approach

In recent years, digital technologies shaped all aspects of the current socio-economic scenario. The relation between these new technologies and workers is a classical controversy. If on one hand digitalization allows firms to substitute tasks previously performed by workers, it is doubtless that the use of these digital technologies increases labor productivity and consequently impacts employment. A mismatch exists between skill demand and supply due to the complexity of the problem: technologies are very different from each other, and so are their impact on occupations. In this scenario, understanding and predicting which are the competences impacted by digital technologies is fundamental for preparing workers, firms and policy makers to address this digital wave. The study of the evolution of skills requirements in the labor market is well-established in the literature [1] and initially such phenomenon was mainly linked to routine based activities that can easily be performed by sophisticated algorithms. Recently, also the automation of tasks which have always been considered too complex to be performed by a technology seems like a plausible scenario [2]. Moreover, soft skills are ever more recognized as a bottleneck for computerisation, since machines cannot replicate what is uncodable [3]. Frey and Osborne [4] quantitatively estimate the computerisation susceptibility of job profiles on 702 detailed occupations collected in the O*NET database (https://www.onetonline.org/). Several authors have investigated the results of Frey and Osborne [4] in the past years [5] or propose new methodologies to study the topic [6]. Despite the large literature that exists on the subject, there is still a lack in quantitative measures of the effect that automation will have on what workers do. The most similar study in this direction has been done by Brandes and Wattenhofer [5], that refine Frey &amp; Osborne’s results assigning automation probabilities to tasks. Anyway, our study goes deeper in this direction studying how the risk of automation is linked to skills, abilities and knowledge. Like other authors who deepened Frey &amp; Osborne [4] results, we use their output to switch the focus, from jobs to competences. To fully understand our method it is important to describe how O*NET is structured. O*NET taxonomy, developed by the U.S. Department of Labor, contains abilities, skills and domains of knowledge to perform a job. O*NET distinguishes the competences in 3 macro-categories: (1) abilities that are enduring attributes of the individual that influence performance; (2) skills that are developed capacities that facilitate learning or the more rapid acquisition of knowledge; (3) knowledge that is an organized set of principles and facts applying in general domains. We use the term “competence” to refer either to abilities, skills or knowledge. Each job profile has quantitative information about “importance” and “level” for every owned competence. The “importance” answers the question “How important is a given competence to the performance of a given job?” whereas the “level” answers “What level of a given competence is needed to perform a given job?”. We estimate the probability of computerisation of each competence using the computerisation probability of the occupations and the “importance” and “level” information. Using this approach, we are able to give statistical evidence of different levels of automation probability of different competence groups. We found that the computerisation probability of the macro-class “ability” is 0.50, that is greater than those of “skills” (0.40) and “knowledge” (0.36). This is a reasonable result since the abilities comprehend enduring factors of workers (such as speed of limb movement, control precision, rate control etc.) that are more simple to codify in a sophisticated algorithm than complex concepts to learn and use at the right time (i.e. knowledge) or soft and technical skills, that could be acquired through experience. Among the abilities those at greatest risk of automation are reaction time/speed abilities (0.61). Differently, idea generation (as an ability) has a lower probability of automation, 0.39. The skills more susceptible to automation are the technical skills, such as equipment maintenance (0.63). In contrast, the systems skills i.e. developed capacities used to understand and improve socio-technical systems, have a low level of computerisation (0.35). Finally, among knowledge we could distinguish high automation risk knowledge, such as therapy/counseling (0.20), and knowledge with a low computerisation probability, as for example mechanics (0.53). From an academic point of view, we offer a quantitative approach to measure to what extent competences are minimizing the risk of being substituted by machines, giving statistical evidence of different levels of automation probability of different groups of competence. Moreover, we offer a holistic view: new technologies bring new opportunities (e.g. automation) but also new needs (e.g. managing automation). Most of the state of the art deals with the aggregate employment impact of innovation, and does not disentangle the analysis in terms of competences. Finally, our results can help companies and policy makers to estimate the impact of automation on competences. Given that there is less debate about the positive employment effect of innovation, a quantitative understanding of this phenomena, possibly free from negative or positive biases, can help face the future of training and hiring. References [1] Cedefop, (2019). Online job vacancies and skills analysis: a Cedefop pan-European approach. [2] Colombo, E., Mercorio, F., &amp; Mezzanzanica, M. (2019). AI meets labor market: exploring the link between automation and skills. Information Economics and Policy. [3] Acemoglu, D., &amp; Autor, D., (2010). Skills, tasks and technologies: implications for employment and earnings. doi:10.3386/w16082 [4] Frey, C. B., &amp; Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?. Technological forecasting and social change, 114, 254-280. [5] Brandes, P., &amp; Wattenhofer, R. (2016). Opening the Frey/Osborne black box: Which tasks of a job are susceptible to computerization?. arXiv preprint arXiv:1604.08823. [6] Montobbio, F., Staccioli, J., Virgillito, M. E., &amp; Vivarelli, M. (2022). Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 174, 121122