415 research outputs found
The "No Justice in the Universe" phenomenon: why honesty of effort may not be rewarded in tournaments
In 2000 Allen Schwenk, using a well-known mathematical model of matchplay
tournaments in which the probability of one player beating another in a single
match is fixed for each pair of players, showed that the classical
single-elimination, seeded format can be "unfair" in the sense that situations
can arise where an indisputibly better (and thus higher seeded) player may have
a smaller probability of winning the tournament than a worse one. This in turn
implies that, if the players are able to influence their seeding in some
preliminary competition, situations can arise where it is in a player's
interest to behave "dishonestly", by deliberately trying to lose a match. This
motivated us to ask whether it is possible for a tournament to be both honest,
meaning that it is impossible for a situation to arise where a rational player
throws a match, and "symmetric" - meaning basically that the rules treat
everyone the same - yet unfair, in the sense that an objectively better player
has a smaller probability of winning than a worse one. After rigorously
defining our terms, our main result is that such tournaments exist and we
construct explicit examples for any number n >= 3 of players. For n=3, we show
(Theorem 3.6) that the collection of win-probability vectors for such
tournaments form a 5-vertex convex polygon in R^3, minus some boundary points.
We conjecture a similar result for any n >= 4 and prove some partial results
towards it.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figure
Optimal Seedings in Elimination Tournaments
We study an elimination tournament with heterogenous contestants whose ability is common-knowledge. Each pair-wise match is modeled as an all-pay auction where the winner gets the right to compete at the next round. Equilibrium efforts are in mixed strategies, yielding rather complex play dynamics: the endogenous win probabilities in each match depend on the outcome of other matches through the identity of the expected opponent in the next round. The designer can seed the competitors according to their ranks. For tournaments with four players we find optimal seedings with respect to three different criteria: 1) maximization of total effort in the tournament; 2) maximization of the probability of a final among the two top ranked teams; 3) maximization of the win probability for the top player. In addition, we find the seedings ensuring that higher ranked players have a higher probability to win the tournament. Finally, we compare the theoretical predictions with data from NCAA basketball tournaments
Optimal Seedings in Elimination Tournaments
We study an elimination tournament with heterogenous contestants whose ability is common-knowledge. Each pair-wise match is modeled as an all-pay auction where the winner gets the right to compete at the next round. Equilibrium efforts are in mixed strategies, yielding rather complex play dynamics: the endogenous win probabilities in each match depend on the outcome of other matches through the identity of the expected opponent in the next round. The designer can seed the competitors according to their ranks. For tournaments with four players we find optimal seedings with respect to three different criteria: 1) maximization of total effort in the tournament; 2) maximization of the probability of a final among the two top ranked teams; 3) maximization of the win probability for the top player. In addition, we find the seedings ensuring that higher ranked players have a higher probability to win the tournament. Finally, we compare the theoretical predictions with data from NCAA basketball tournaments.Elimination tournaments; Seedings; All-Pay Auctions
Stop Simulating! Efficient Computation of Tournament Winning Probabilities
In the run-up to any major sports tournament, winning probabilities of
participants are publicized for engagement and betting purposes. These are
generally based on simulating the tournament tens of thousands of times by
sampling from single-match outcome models. We show that, by virtue of the
tournament schedule, exact computation of winning probabilties can be
substantially faster than their approximation through simulation. This notably
applies to the 2022 and 2023 FIFA World Cup Finals, and is independent of the
model used for individual match outcomes.Comment: Working paper; first draft published prior to WWC202
A paradox of tournament seeding
A mathematical model of seeding is analysed for sports tournaments where the
qualification is based on round-robin contests. The conditions of
strategyproofness are found to be quite restrictive: if each team takes its own
coefficient (a measure of its past performance), only one or all of them should
qualify from every round-robin contest. Thus the standard draw system creates
incentives for tanking in order to be assigned to a stronger pot as each team
prefers to qualify with teams having a lower coefficient. Major soccer
competitions are shown to suffer from this weakness. Strategyproofness can be
guaranteed by giving to each team the highest coefficient of all teams that are
ranked lower in its round-robin contest. The proposal is illustrated by the
2020/21 UEFA Champions League.Comment: 23 pages, 3 table
The effects of draw restrictions on knockout tournaments
The paper analyses how draw constraints influence the outcome of a knockout
tournament. The research question is inspired by European club football
competitions, where the organiser generally imposes an association constraint
in the first round of the knockout phase: teams from the same country cannot be
drawn against each other. Its effects are explored in both theoretical and
simulation models. An association constraint in the first round(s) is found to
increase the likelihood of same nation matchups to approximately the same
extent in each subsequent round. If the favourite teams are concentrated in
some associations, they will have a higher probability to win the tournament
under this policy but the increase is less than linear if it is used in more
rounds. Our results can explain the recent introduction of the association
constraint for both the knockout round play-offs with 16 teams and the Round of
16 in the UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 4 table
- …