Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information

The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Optimization of Evolutionary Neural Networks Using Hybrid Learning Algorithms

Evolutionary artificial neural networks (EANNs) refer to a special class of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in which evolution is another fundamental form of adaptation in addition to learning. Evolutionary algorithms are used to adapt the connection weights, network architecture and learning algorithms according to the problem environment. Even though evolutionary algorithms are well known as efficient global search algorithms, very often they miss the best local solutions in the complex solution space. In this paper, we propose a hybrid meta-heuristic learning approach combining evolutionary learning and local search methods (using 1st and 2nd order error information) to improve the learning and faster convergence obtained using a direct evolutionary approach. The proposed technique is tested on three different chaotic time series and the test results are compared with some popular neuro-fuzzy systems and a recently developed cutting angle method of global optimization. Empirical results reveal that the proposed technique is efficient in spite of the computational complexity

Industrial process monitoring by means of recurrent neural networks and Self Organizing Maps

Industrial manufacturing plants often suffer from reliability problems during their day-to-day operations which have the potential for causing a great impact on the effectiveness and performance of the overall process and the sub-processes involved. Time-series forecasting of critical industrial signals presents itself as a way to reduce this impact by extracting knowledge regarding the internal dynamics of the process and advice any process deviations before it affects the productive process. In this paper, a novel industrial condition monitoring approach based on the combination of Self Organizing Maps for operating point codification and Recurrent Neural Networks for critical signal modeling is proposed. The combination of both methods presents a strong synergy, the information of the operating condition given by the interpretation of the maps helps the model to improve generalization, one of the drawbacks of recurrent networks, while assuring high accuracy and precision rates. Finally, the complete methodology, in terms of performance and effectiveness is validated experimentally with real data from a copper rod industrial plant.Postprint (published version

Prediction of Water Level Fluctuations of Chahnimeh Reservoirs in Zabol Using ANN, ANFIS and Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm

Forecasting changes in level of the reservoir are important in Construction, design and estimate the volume of reservoirs and also in managing of supplying water. In this study, we have used different models such as Artificial Neutral Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA) for forecasting fluctuations in water level of Chahnimeh reservoirs in south-east of Iran. For this purpose, we applied three most important variables in water levels of the reservoir including evaporation, wind speed and daily temperature average to prepare the best entering variables for models. In addition, none accuracy of error in estimation of hydrologic variables and none assurance of exiting models are the result of their sensitivity to the educational complex for teaching of models and also preliminary decoration before beginning general education has been estimated. After comparing exiting and confidence interval of the ANN and ANFIS has been found that the result of ANFIS model is better described than other model because it was more accurate and does have lesser assurance

River flow forecasting using an integrated approach of wavelet multi-resolution analysis and computational intelligence techniques

In this research an attempt is made to develop highly accurate river flow forecasting models. Wavelet multi-resolution analysis is applied in conjunction with artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Various types and structure of computational intelligence models are developed and applied on four different rivers in Australia. Research outcomes indicate that forecasting reliability is significantly improved by applying proposed hybrid models, especially for longer lead time and peak values

Potential of support-vector regression for forecasting stream flow

Vodotok je važan za hidrološko proučavanje zato što određuje varijabilnost vode i magnitudu rijeke. Inženjerstvo vodnih resursa uvijek se bavi povijesnim podacima i pokušava procijeniti prognostičke podatke kako bi se osiguralo bolje predviđanje za primjenu kod bilo kojeg vodnog resursa, na pr. projektiranja vodnog potencijala brane hidroelektrana, procjene niskog protoka, i održavanja zalihe vode. U radu se predstavljaju tri računalna programa za primjenu kod rješavanja ovakvih sadržaja, tj. umjetne neuronske mreže - artificial neural networks (ANNs), prilagodljivi sustavi neuro-neizrazitog zaključivanja - adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs), i support vector machines (SVMs). Za stvaranje procjene korištena je Rijeka Telom, smještena u Cameron Highlands distriktu Pahanga, Malaysia. Podaci o dnevnom prosječnom protoku rijeke Telom, kao što su količina padavina i podaci o vodostaju, koristili su se za period od ožujka 1984. do siječnja 2013. za podučavanje, ispitivanje i ocjenjivanje izabranih modela. SVM pristup je dao bolje rezultate nego ANFIS i ANNs kod procjenjivanja dnevne prosječne fluktuacije vodotoka.Stream flow is an important input for hydrology studies because it determines the water variability and magnitude of a river. Water resources engineering always deals with historical data and tries to estimate the forecasting records in order to give a better prediction for any water resources applications, such as designing the water potential of hydroelectric dams, estimating low flow, and maintaining the water supply. This paper presents three soft-computing approaches for dealing with these issues, i.e. artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs), and support vector machines (SVMs). Telom River, located in the Cameron Highlands district of Pahang, Malaysia, was used in making the estimation. The Telom River’s daily mean discharge records, such as rainfall and river-level data, were used for the period of March 1984 – January 2013 for training, testing, and validating the selected models. The SVM approach provided better results than ANFIS and ANNs in estimating the daily mean fluctuation of the stream’s flow

Dynamic non-linear system modelling using wavelet-based soft computing techniques

The enormous number of complex systems results in the necessity of high-level and cost-efficient modelling structures for the operators and system designers. Model-based approaches offer a very challenging way to integrate a priori knowledge into the procedure. Soft computing based models in particular, can successfully be applied in cases of highly nonlinear problems. A further reason for dealing with so called soft computational model based techniques is that in real-world cases, many times only partial, uncertain and/or inaccurate data is available. Wavelet-Based soft computing techniques are considered, as one of the latest trends in system identification/modelling. This thesis provides a comprehensive synopsis of the main wavelet-based approaches to model the non-linear dynamical systems in real world problems in conjunction with possible twists and novelties aiming for more accurate and less complex modelling structure. Initially, an on-line structure and parameter design has been considered in an adaptive Neuro- Fuzzy (NF) scheme. The problem of redundant membership functions and consequently fuzzy rules is circumvented by applying an adaptive structure. The growth of a special type of Fungus (Monascus ruber van Tieghem) is examined against several other approaches for further justification of the proposed methodology. By extending the line of research, two Morlet Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) structures have been introduced. Increasing the accuracy and decreasing the computational cost are both the primary targets of proposed novelties. Modifying the synoptic weights by replacing them with Linear Combination Weights (LCW) and also imposing a Hybrid Learning Algorithm (HLA) comprising of Gradient Descent (GD) and Recursive Least Square (RLS), are the tools utilised for the above challenges. These two models differ from the point of view of structure while they share the same HLA scheme. The second approach contains an additional Multiplication layer, plus its hidden layer contains several sub-WNNs for each input dimension. The practical superiority of these extensions is demonstrated by simulation and experimental results on real non-linear dynamic system; Listeria Monocytogenes survival curves in Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) whole milk, and consolidated with comprehensive comparison with other suggested schemes. At the next stage, the extended clustering-based fuzzy version of the proposed WNN schemes, is presented as the ultimate structure in this thesis. The proposed Fuzzy Wavelet Neural network (FWNN) benefitted from Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) clustering feature, updated by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. One of the main aims of this thesis is to illustrate how the GMM-EM scheme could be used not only for detecting useful knowledge from the data by building accurate regression, but also for the identification of complex systems. The structure of FWNN is based on the basis of fuzzy rules including wavelet functions in the consequent parts of rules. In order to improve the function approximation accuracy and general capability of the FWNN system, an efficient hybrid learning approach is used to adjust the parameters of dilation, translation, weights, and membership. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is employed for wavelet parameters adjustment together with Weighted Least Square (WLS) which is dedicated for the Linear Combination Weights fine-tuning. The results of a real-world application of Short Time Load Forecasting (STLF) further re-enforced the plausibility of the above technique