DAG-Based Attack and Defense Modeling: Don't Miss the Forest for the Attack Trees

This paper presents the current state of the art on attack and defense modeling approaches that are based on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). DAGs allow for a hierarchical decomposition of complex scenarios into simple, easily understandable and quantifiable actions. Methods based on threat trees and Bayesian networks are two well-known approaches to security modeling. However there exist more than 30 DAG-based methodologies, each having different features and goals. The objective of this survey is to present a complete overview of graphical attack and defense modeling techniques based on DAGs. This consists of summarizing the existing methodologies, comparing their features and proposing a taxonomy of the described formalisms. This article also supports the selection of an adequate modeling technique depending on user requirements

A hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning with application to multi-label learning

We present a novel hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning, called H2PC. It first reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network and then performs a Bayesian-scoring greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges. The algorithm is based on divide-and-conquer constraint-based subroutines to learn the local structure around a target variable. We conduct two series of experimental comparisons of H2PC against Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC), which is currently the most powerful state-of-the-art algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning. First, we use eight well-known Bayesian network benchmarks with various data sizes to assess the quality of the learned structure returned by the algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that H2PC outperforms MMHC in terms of goodness of fit to new data and quality of the network structure with respect to the true dependence structure of the data. Second, we investigate H2PC's ability to solve the multi-label learning problem. We provide theoretical results to characterize and identify graphically the so-called minimal label powersets that appear as irreducible factors in the joint distribution under the faithfulness condition. The multi-label learning problem is then decomposed into a series of multi-class classification problems, where each multi-class variable encodes a label powerset. H2PC is shown to compare favorably to MMHC in terms of global classification accuracy over ten multi-label data sets covering different application domains. Overall, our experiments support the conclusions that local structural learning with H2PC in the form of local neighborhood induction is a theoretically well-motivated and empirically effective learning framework that is well suited to multi-label learning. The source code (in R) of H2PC as well as all data sets used for the empirical tests are publicly available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1101.5184 by other author

Using visualization, variable selection and feature extraction to learn from industrial data

Although the engineers of industry have access to process data, they seldom use advanced statistical tools to solve process control problems. Why this reluctance? I believe that the reason is in the history of the development of statistical tools, which were developed in the era of rigorous mathematical modelling, manual computation and small data sets. This created sophisticated tools. The engineers do not understand the requirements of these algorithms related, for example, to pre-processing of data. If algorithms are fed with unsuitable data, or parameterized poorly, they produce unreliable results, which may lead an engineer to turn down statistical analysis in general. This thesis looks for algorithms that probably do not impress the champions of statistics, but serve process engineers. This thesis advocates three properties in an algorithm: supervised operation, robustness and understandability. Supervised operation allows and requires the user to explicate the goal of the analysis, which allows the algorithm to discover results that are relevant to the user. Robust algorithms allow engineers to analyse raw process data collected from the automation system of the plant. The third aspect is understandability: the user must understand how to parameterize the model, what is the principle of the algorithm, and know how to interpret the results. The above criteria are justified with the theories of human learning. The basis is the theory of constructivism, which defines learning as construction of mental models. Then I discuss the theories of organisational learning, which show how mental models influence the behaviour of groups of persons. The next level discusses statistical methodologies of data analysis, and binds them to the theories of organisational learning. The last level discusses individual statistical algorithms, and introduces the methodology and the algorithms proposed by this thesis. This methodology uses three types of algorithms: visualization, variable selection and feature extraction. The goal of the proposed methodology is to reliably and understandably provide the user with information that is related to a problem he has defined interesting. The above methodology is illustrated by an analysis of an industrial case: the concentrator of the Hitura mine. This case illustrates how to define the problem with off-line laboratory data, and how to search the on-line data for solutions. A major advantage of algorithmic study of data is efficiency: the manual approach reported in the early took approximately six man months; the automated approach of this thesis created comparable results in few weeks.reviewe

Uncertainty representation in software models: a survey

This paper provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of research work on how uncertainty is currently represented in software models. The survey presents the definitions and current research status of different proposals for addressing uncertainty modeling and introduces a classification framework that allows to compare and classify existing proposals, analyze their current status and identify new trends. In addition, we discuss possible future research directions, opportunities and challenges.This work is partially supported by the European Commission (FEDER) and the Spanish Government under projects APOLO (US1264651), HORATIO (RTI2018-101204-B-C21), EKIPMENT-PLUS (P18-FR-2895) and COSCA (PGC2018-094905-B-I00)