Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Role Playing Learning for Socially Concomitant Mobile Robot Navigation

In this paper, we present the Role Playing Learning (RPL) scheme for a mobile robot to navigate socially with its human companion in populated environments. Neural networks (NN) are constructed to parameterize a stochastic policy that directly maps sensory data collected by the robot to its velocity outputs, while respecting a set of social norms. An efficient simulative learning environment is built with maps and pedestrians trajectories collected from a number of real-world crowd data sets. In each learning iteration, a robot equipped with the NN policy is created virtually in the learning environment to play itself as a companied pedestrian and navigate towards a goal in a socially concomitant manner. Thus, we call this process Role Playing Learning, which is formulated under a reinforcement learning (RL) framework. The NN policy is optimized end-to-end using Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO), with consideration of the imperfectness of robot's sensor measurements. Simulative and experimental results are provided to demonstrate the efficacy and superiority of our method

Distance estimation and collision prediction for on-line robotic motion planning

An efficient method for computing the minimum distance and predicting collisions between moving objects is presented. This problem has been incorporated in the framework of an in-line motion planning algorithm to satisfy collision avoidance between a robot and moving objects modeled as convex polyhedra. In the beginning the deterministic problem, where the information about the objects is assumed to be certain is examined. If instead of the Euclidean norm, L(sub 1) or L(sub infinity) norms are used to represent distance, the problem becomes a linear programming problem. The stochastic problem is formulated, where the uncertainty is induced by sensing and the unknown dynamics of the moving obstacles. Two problems are considered: (1) filtering of the minimum distance between the robot and the moving object, at the present time; and (2) prediction of the minimum distance in the future, in order to predict possible collisions with the moving obstacles and estimate the collision time

Hidden Markov Model for Visual Guidance of Robot Motion in Dynamic Environment

Models and control strategies for dynamic obstacle avoidance in visual guidance of mobile robot are presented. Characteristics that distinguish the visual computation and motion-control requirements in dynamic environments from that in static environments are discussed. Objectives of the vision and motion planning are formulated as: 1) finding a collision-free trajectory that takes account of any possible motions of obstacles in the local environment; 2) such a trajectory should be consistent with a global goal or plan of the motion; and 3) the robot should move at as high a speed as possible, subject to its kinematic constraints. A stochastic motion-control algorithm based on a hidden Markov model (HMM) is developed. Obstacle motion prediction applies a probabilistic evaluation scheme. Motion planning of the robot implements a trajectory-guided parallel-search strategy in accordance with the obstacle motion prediction models. The approach simplifies the control process of robot motion

Simultaneous inference for misaligned multivariate functional data

We consider inference for misaligned multivariate functional data that represents the same underlying curve, but where the functional samples have systematic differences in shape. In this paper we introduce a new class of generally applicable models where warping effects are modeled through nonlinear transformation of latent Gaussian variables and systematic shape differences are modeled by Gaussian processes. To model cross-covariance between sample coordinates we introduce a class of low-dimensional cross-covariance structures suitable for modeling multivariate functional data. We present a method for doing maximum-likelihood estimation in the models and apply the method to three data sets. The first data set is from a motion tracking system where the spatial positions of a large number of body-markers are tracked in three-dimensions over time. The second data set consists of height and weight measurements for Danish boys. The third data set consists of three-dimensional spatial hand paths from a controlled obstacle-avoidance experiment. We use the developed method to estimate the cross-covariance structure, and use a classification setup to demonstrate that the method outperforms state-of-the-art methods for handling misaligned curve data.Comment: 44 pages in total including tables and figures. Additional 9 pages of supplementary material and reference