A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models

Privacy Risks of Securing Machine Learning Models against Adversarial Examples

The arms race between attacks and defenses for machine learning models has come to a forefront in recent years, in both the security community and the privacy community. However, one big limitation of previous research is that the security domain and the privacy domain have typically been considered separately. It is thus unclear whether the defense methods in one domain will have any unexpected impact on the other domain. In this paper, we take a step towards resolving this limitation by combining the two domains. In particular, we measure the success of membership inference attacks against six state-of-the-art defense methods that mitigate the risk of adversarial examples (i.e., evasion attacks). Membership inference attacks determine whether or not an individual data record has been part of a model's training set. The accuracy of such attacks reflects the information leakage of training algorithms about individual members of the training set. Adversarial defense methods against adversarial examples influence the model's decision boundaries such that model predictions remain unchanged for a small area around each input. However, this objective is optimized on training data. Thus, individual data records in the training set have a significant influence on robust models. This makes the models more vulnerable to inference attacks. To perform the membership inference attacks, we leverage the existing inference methods that exploit model predictions. We also propose two new inference methods that exploit structural properties of robust models on adversarially perturbed data. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates that compared with the natural training (undefended) approach, adversarial defense methods can indeed increase the target model's risk against membership inference attacks.Comment: ACM CCS 2019, code is available at https://github.com/inspire-group/privacy-vs-robustnes

A Multi-Contextual Approach to Modeling the Impact of Critical Highway Work Zones in Large Urban Corridors

Accurate Construction Work Zone (CWZ) impact assessments of unprecedented travel inconvenience to the general public are required for all federally-funded highway infrastructure improvement projects. These assessments are critical, but they are also very difficult to perform. Most existing prediction approaches are project-specific, shortterm, and univariate, thus incapable of benchmarking the potential traffic impact of CWZs for highway construction projects. This study fills these gaps by creating a big-data-based decision-support framework and testing if it can reliably predict the potential impact of a CWZ under arbitrary lane closure scenarios. This study proposes a big-data-based decision-support analytical framework, “Multi-contextual learning for the Impact of Critical Urban highway work Zones” (MICUZ). MICUZ is unique as it models the impact of CWZ operations through a multi-contextual quantitative method utilizing sensored big transportation data. MICUZ was developed through a three-phase modeling process. First, robustness of the collected sensored data was examined through a Wheeler’s repeatability and reproducibility analysis, for the purpose of verifying the homogeneity of the variability of traffic flow data. The analysis results led to a notable conclusion that the proposed framework is feasible due to the relative simplicity and periodicity of highway traffic profiles. Second, a machine-learning algorithm using a Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) technique was applied to model the multi-contextual aspects of iii long-term traffic flow predictions. The validation study showed that the proposed multi-contextual FNN yields an accurate prediction rate of traffic flow rates and truck percentages. Third, employing these predicted traffic parameters, a curve-fitting modeling technique was implemented to quantify the impact of what-if lane closures on the overall traffic flow. The robustness of the proposed curve-fitting models was then scientifically verified and validated by measuring forecast accuracy. The results of this study convey the fact that MICUZ would recognize how stereotypical regional traffic patterns react to existing CWZs and lane closure tactics, and quantify the probable but reliable travel time delays at CWZs in heavily trafficked urban cores. The proposed framework provides a rigorous theoretical basis for comparatively analyzing what-if construction scenarios, enabling engineers and planners to choose the most efficient transportation management plans much more quickly and accurately

Intra-regional classification of grape seeds produced in Mendoza province (Argentina) by multi-elemental analysis and chemometrics tools

The feasibility of the application of chemometric techniques associated with multi-element analysis for the classification of grape seeds according to their provenance vineyard soil was investigated. Grape seed samples from different localities of Mendoza province (Argentina) were evaluated. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was used for the determination of twenty-nine elements (Ag, As, Ce, Co, Cs, Cu, Eu, Fe, Ga, Gd, La, Lu, Mn, Mo, Nb, Nd, Ni, Pr, Rb, Sm, Te, Ti, Tl, Tm, U, V, Y, Zn and Zr). Once the analytical data were collected, supervised pattern recognition techniques such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA), partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), support vector machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) were applied to construct classification/discrimination rules. The results indicated that nonlinear methods, RF and SVM, perform best with up to 98% and 93% accuracy rate, respectively, and therefore are excellent tools for classification of grapes.Fil: Canizo, Brenda Vanina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Laboratorio de Química Analítica para Investigación y Desarrollo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Escudero, Leticia Belén. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Laboratorio de Química Analítica para Investigación y Desarrollo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Pérez, María Belén. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Laboratorio de Química Analítica para Investigación y Desarrollo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Pellerano, Roberto Gerardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Instituto de Química Básica y Aplicada del Nordeste Argentino. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Naturales y Agrimensura. Instituto de Química Básica y Aplicada del Nordeste Argentino; ArgentinaFil: Wuilloud, Rodolfo German. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Instituto de Química Básica y Aplicada del Nordeste Argentino. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Naturales y Agrimensura. Instituto de Química Básica y Aplicada del Nordeste Argentino; Argentin

Outlier detection techniques for wireless sensor networks: A survey

In the field of wireless sensor networks, those measurements that significantly deviate from the normal pattern of sensed data are considered as outliers. The potential sources of outliers include noise and errors, events, and malicious attacks on the network. Traditional outlier detection techniques are not directly applicable to wireless sensor networks due to the nature of sensor data and specific requirements and limitations of the wireless sensor networks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of existing outlier detection techniques specifically developed for the wireless sensor networks. Additionally, it presents a technique-based taxonomy and a comparative table to be used as a guideline to select a technique suitable for the application at hand based on characteristics such as data type, outlier type, outlier identity, and outlier degree

Accurate prediction of melt pool shapes in laser powder bed fusion by the non-linear temperature equation including phase changes - isotropic versus anisotropic conductivity

In this contribution, we validate a physical model based on a transient temperature equation (including latent heat) w.r.t. the experimental set AMB2018-02 provided within the additive manufacturing benchmark series, established at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, USA. We aim at predicting the following quantities of interest: width, depth, and length of the melt pool by numerical simulation and report also on the obtainable numerical results of the cooling rate. We first assume the laser to posses a double ellipsoidal shape and demonstrate that a well calibrated, purely thermal model based on isotropic thermal conductivity is able to predict all the quantities of interest, up to a deviation of maximum 7.3\% from the experimentally measured values. However, it is interesting to observe that if we directly introduce, whenever available, the measured laser profile in the model (instead of the double ellipsoidal shape) the investigated model returns a deviation of 19.3\% from the experimental values. This motivates a model update by introducing anisotropic conductivity, which is intended to be a simplistic model for heat material convection inside the melt pool. Such an anisotropic model enables the prediction of all quantities of interest mentioned above with a maximum deviation from the experimental values of 6.5\%. We note that, although more predictive, the anisotropic model induces only a marginal increase in computational complexity