On Similarities between Inference in Game Theory and Machine Learning

In this paper, we elucidate the equivalence between inference in game theory and machine learning. Our aim in so doing is to establish an equivalent vocabulary between the two domains so as to facilitate developments at the intersection of both fields, and as proof of the usefulness of this approach, we use recent developments in each field to make useful improvements to the other. More specifically, we consider the analogies between smooth best responses in fictitious play and Bayesian inference methods. Initially, we use these insights to develop and demonstrate an improved algorithm for learning in games based on probabilistic moderation. That is, by integrating over the distribution of opponent strategies (a Bayesian approach within machine learning) rather than taking a simple empirical average (the approach used in standard fictitious play) we derive a novel moderated fictitious play algorithm and show that it is more likely than standard fictitious play to converge to a payoff-dominant but risk-dominated Nash equilibrium in a simple coordination game. Furthermore we consider the converse case, and show how insights from game theory can be used to derive two improved mean field variational learning algorithms. We first show that the standard update rule of mean field variational learning is analogous to a Cournot adjustment within game theory. By analogy with fictitious play, we then suggest an improved update rule, and show that this results in fictitious variational play, an improved mean field variational learning algorithm that exhibits better convergence in highly or strongly connected graphical models. Second, we use a recent advance in fictitious play, namely dynamic fictitious play, to derive a derivative action variational learning algorithm, that exhibits superior convergence properties on a canonical machine learning problem (clustering a mixture distribution)

Hierarchical Decomposition of Nonlinear Dynamics and Control for System Identification and Policy Distillation

The control of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a major challenge for autonomous agents. Current trends in reinforcement learning (RL) focus on complex representations of dynamics and policies, which have yielded impressive results in solving a variety of hard control tasks. However, this new sophistication and extremely over-parameterized models have come with the cost of an overall reduction in our ability to interpret the resulting policies. In this paper, we take inspiration from the control community and apply the principles of hybrid switching systems in order to break down complex dynamics into simpler components. We exploit the rich representational power of probabilistic graphical models and derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for learning a sequence model to capture the temporal structure of the data and automatically decompose nonlinear dynamics into stochastic switching linear dynamical systems. Moreover, we show how this framework of switching models enables extracting hierarchies of Markovian and auto-regressive locally linear controllers from nonlinear experts in an imitation learning scenario.Comment: 2nd Annual Conference on Learning for Dynamics and Contro

Modeling heterogeneity in random graphs through latent space models: a selective review

We present a selective review on probabilistic modeling of heterogeneity in random graphs. We focus on latent space models and more particularly on stochastic block models and their extensions that have undergone major developments in the last five years