4,290 research outputs found

    Undergraduate Catalog of Studies, 2023-2024

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    Flood dynamics derived from video remote sensing

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    Flooding is by far the most pervasive natural hazard, with the human impacts of floods expected to worsen in the coming decades due to climate change. Hydraulic models are a key tool for understanding flood dynamics and play a pivotal role in unravelling the processes that occur during a flood event, including inundation flow patterns and velocities. In the realm of river basin dynamics, video remote sensing is emerging as a transformative tool that can offer insights into flow dynamics and thus, together with other remotely sensed data, has the potential to be deployed to estimate discharge. Moreover, the integration of video remote sensing data with hydraulic models offers a pivotal opportunity to enhance the predictive capacity of these models. Hydraulic models are traditionally built with accurate terrain, flow and bathymetric data and are often calibrated and validated using observed data to obtain meaningful and actionable model predictions. Data for accurately calibrating and validating hydraulic models are not always available, leaving the assessment of the predictive capabilities of some models deployed in flood risk management in question. Recent advances in remote sensing have heralded the availability of vast video datasets of high resolution. The parallel evolution of computing capabilities, coupled with advancements in artificial intelligence are enabling the processing of data at unprecedented scales and complexities, allowing us to glean meaningful insights into datasets that can be integrated with hydraulic models. The aims of the research presented in this thesis were twofold. The first aim was to evaluate and explore the potential applications of video from air- and space-borne platforms to comprehensively calibrate and validate two-dimensional hydraulic models. The second aim was to estimate river discharge using satellite video combined with high resolution topographic data. In the first of three empirical chapters, non-intrusive image velocimetry techniques were employed to estimate river surface velocities in a rural catchment. For the first time, a 2D hydraulicvmodel was fully calibrated and validated using velocities derived from Unpiloted Aerial Vehicle (UAV) image velocimetry approaches. This highlighted the value of these data in mitigating the limitations associated with traditional data sources used in parameterizing two-dimensional hydraulic models. This finding inspired the subsequent chapter where river surface velocities, derived using Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV), and flood extents, derived using deep neural network-based segmentation, were extracted from satellite video and used to rigorously assess the skill of a two-dimensional hydraulic model. Harnessing the ability of deep neural networks to learn complex features and deliver accurate and contextually informed flood segmentation, the potential value of satellite video for validating two dimensional hydraulic model simulations is exhibited. In the final empirical chapter, the convergence of satellite video imagery and high-resolution topographical data bridges the gap between visual observations and quantitative measurements by enabling the direct extraction of velocities from video imagery, which is used to estimate river discharge. Overall, this thesis demonstrates the significant potential of emerging video-based remote sensing datasets and offers approaches for integrating these data into hydraulic modelling and discharge estimation practice. The incorporation of LSPIV techniques into flood modelling workflows signifies a methodological progression, especially in areas lacking robust data collection infrastructure. Satellite video remote sensing heralds a major step forward in our ability to observe river dynamics in real time, with potentially significant implications in the domain of flood modelling science

    Neuromodulatory effects on early visual signal processing

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    Understanding how the brain processes information and generates simple to complex behavior constitutes one of the core objectives in systems neuroscience. However, when studying different neural circuits, their dynamics and interactions researchers often assume fixed connectivity, overlooking a crucial factor - the effect of neuromodulators. Neuromodulators can modulate circuit activity depending on several aspects, such as different brain states or sensory contexts. Therefore, considering the modulatory effects of neuromodulators on the functionality of neural circuits is an indispensable step towards a more complete picture of the brain’s ability to process information. Generally, this issue affects all neural systems; hence this thesis tries to address this with an experimental and computational approach to resolve neuromodulatory effects on cell type-level in a well-define system, the mouse retina. In the first study, we established and applied a machine-learning-based classification algorithm to identify individual functional retinal ganglion cell types, which enabled detailed cell type-resolved analyses. We applied the classifier to newly acquired data of light-evoked retinal ganglion cell responses and successfully identified their functional types. Here, the cell type-resolved analysis revealed that a particular principle of efficient coding applies to all types in a similar way. In a second study, we focused on the issue of inter-experimental variability that can occur during the process of pooling datasets. As a result, further downstream analyses may be complicated by the subtle variations between the individual datasets. To tackle this, we proposed a theoretical framework based on an adversarial autoencoder with the objective to remove inter-experimental variability from the pooled dataset, while preserving the underlying biological signal of interest. In the last study of this thesis, we investigated the functional effects of the neuromodulator nitric oxide on the retinal output signal. To this end, we used our previously developed retinal ganglion cell type classifier to unravel type-specific effects and established a paired recording protocol to account for type-specific time-dependent effects. We found that certain retinal ganglion cell types showed adaptational type-specific changes and that nitric oxide had a distinct modulation of a particular group of retinal ganglion cells. In summary, I first present several experimental and computational methods that allow to study functional neuromodulatory effects on the retinal output signal in a cell type-resolved manner and, second, use these tools to demonstrate their feasibility to study the neuromodulator nitric oxide

    Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

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    The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought

    Applications of Deep Learning Models in Financial Forecasting

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    In financial markets, deep learning techniques sparked a revolution, reshaping conventional approaches and amplifying predictive capabilities. This thesis explored the applications of deep learning models to unravel insights and methodologies aimed at advancing financial forecasting. The crux of the research problem lies in the applications of predictive models within financial domains, characterised by high volatility and uncertainty. This thesis investigated the application of advanced deep-learning methodologies in the context of financial forecasting, addressing the challenges posed by the dynamic nature of financial markets. These challenges were tackled by exploring a range of techniques, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), autoencoders (AEs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs), along with approaches such as encoding financial time series into images. Through analysis, methodologies such as transfer learning, convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory networks, generative modelling, and image encoding of time series data were examined. These methodologies collectively offered a comprehensive toolkit for extracting meaningful insights from financial data. The present work investigated the practicality of a deep learning CNN-LSTM model within the Directional Change framework to predict significant DC events—a task crucial for timely decisionmaking in financial markets. Furthermore, the potential of autoencoders and variational autoencoders to enhance financial forecasting accuracy and remove noise from financial time series data was explored. Leveraging their capacity within financial time series, these models offered promising avenues for improved data representation and subsequent forecasting. To further contribute to financial prediction capabilities, a deep multi-model was developed that harnessed the power of pre-trained computer vision models. This innovative approach aimed to predict the VVIX, utilising the cross-disciplinary synergy between computer vision and financial forecasting. By integrating knowledge from these domains, novel insights into the prediction of market volatility were provided

    Tipping Points and Early Warning Signals in the Climate-Carbon System

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    This is a thesis about tipping points and early warning signals. The tipping points investigated are related to various components of the climate-carbon system. In contrast, the work on early warning signals has more generic applications, however in this thesis they are analysed in the context of the climate-carbon system. The thesis begins with an introduction to the climate-carbon system as well as a discussion of tipping points in the Earth system. Then a more mathematical summary of tipping points and early warning signals is given. An investigation into the ‘compost bomb’ is undertaken, in which the spatial structure of soils is accounted for. It is found that a hot summer could cause a compost bomb. The effect of biogeochemical heating on the stability of the global carbon cycle is investigated and it is found to play only a small role. The potential for instabilities in the climate-carbon cycle is further investigated when the dynamic behaviour of the ocean carbon cycle is accounted for. It is found that some CMIP6 models may be close to having an unstable carbon cycle. Spatial early warning signals are investigated in the context of more rapidly forced systems. It is found that spatial early warning signals perform better when the system is rapidly forced compared with time series based early warning signals. The typical assumptions about white noise made when using early warning signals are also studied. It is found that time correlated noise may mask the early warning signal. It is shown that a spectral analysis can avoid this problem.European Commissio

    Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

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    The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top8 down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought

    Self-supervised learning for transferable representations

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    Machine learning has undeniably achieved remarkable advances thanks to large labelled datasets and supervised learning. However, this progress is constrained by the labour-intensive annotation process. It is not feasible to generate extensive labelled datasets for every problem we aim to address. Consequently, there has been a notable shift in recent times toward approaches that solely leverage raw data. Among these, self-supervised learning has emerged as a particularly powerful approach, offering scalability to massive datasets and showcasing considerable potential for effective knowledge transfer. This thesis investigates self-supervised representation learning with a strong focus on computer vision applications. We provide a comprehensive survey of self-supervised methods across various modalities, introducing a taxonomy that categorises them into four distinct families while also highlighting practical considerations for real-world implementation. Our focus thenceforth is on the computer vision modality, where we perform a comprehensive benchmark evaluation of state-of-the-art self supervised models against many diverse downstream transfer tasks. Our findings reveal that self-supervised models often outperform supervised learning across a spectrum of tasks, albeit with correlations weakening as tasks transition beyond classification, particularly for datasets with distribution shifts. Digging deeper, we investigate the influence of data augmentation on the transferability of contrastive learners, uncovering a trade-off between spatial and appearance-based invariances that generalise to real-world transformations. This begins to explain the differing empirical performances achieved by self-supervised learners on different downstream tasks, and it showcases the advantages of specialised representations produced with tailored augmentation. Finally, we introduce a novel self-supervised pre-training algorithm for object detection, aligning pre-training with downstream architecture and objectives, leading to reduced localisation errors and improved label efficiency. In conclusion, this thesis contributes a comprehensive understanding of self-supervised representation learning and its role in enabling effective transfer across computer vision tasks
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