Assurance of learning : the role of work integrated learning and industry partners

In the partnering with students and industry it is important for universities to recognize and value the nature of knowledge and learning that emanates from work integrated learning experiences is different to formal university based learning. Learning is not a by-product of work rather learning is fundamental to engaging in work practice. Work integrated learning experiences provide unique opportunities for students to integrate theory and practice through the solving of real world problems. This paper reports findings to date of a project that sought to identify key issues and practices faced by academics, industry partners and students engaged in the provision and experience of work integrated learning within an undergraduate creative industries program at a major metropolitan university. In this paper, those findings are focused on some of the particular qualities and issues related to the assessment of learning at and through the work integrated experience. The findings suggest that the assessment strategies needed to better value the knowledges and practices of the Creative Industries. The paper also makes recommendations about how industry partners might best contribute to the assessment of students’ developing capabilities and to continuous reflection on courses and the assurance of learning agenda

Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification

This paper shows, through a numerical example, how to develop portfolios of flood management activities that generate the highest return under an acceptable risk for an area in the central part of the Netherlands. The paper shows a method based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that contributes to developing flood management strategies. MPT aims at finding sets of investments that diversify risks thereby reducing the overall risk of the total portfolio of investments. This paper shows that through systematically combining four different flood protection measures in portfolios containing three or four measures; risk is reduced compared with portfolios that only contain one or two measures. Adding partly uncorrelated measures to the portfolio diversifies risk. We demonstrate how MPT encourages a systematic discussion of the relationship between the return and risk of individual flood mitigation activities and the return and risk of complete portfolios. It is also shown how important it is to understand the correlation of the returns of various flood management activities. The MPT approach, therefore, fits well with the notion of adaptive water management, which perceives the future as inherently uncertain. Through applying MPT on flood protection strategies current vulnerability will be reduced by diversifying risk

Toward behavioural innovation economics – Heuristics and biases in choice under novelty

A framework for ‘behavioural innovation economics’ is proposed here as a synthesis of behavioural economics and innovation economics in the specific context of choice under novelty. We seek to apply the heuristics and biases framework of behavioural economics to the study of the innovation process in order to map and analyze systematic choice failures in the innovation process. We elaborate the distinction between choice under uncertainty and choice under novelty, as well as drawing out the ‘efficient innovation hypothesis’ implicit in most behavioural models of innovation. The subject domain of a research program for behavioural innovation economics is then briefly outlined in terms of a catalogue of characteristic ways in which choice under novelty renders innovation processes subject to failure.

Capacity allocation and downsizing decisions in project portfolio management.

This paper aims to gain insight into capacity allocation and downsizing decisions in project portfolio management. By downsizing, we mean reducing the scale or size of a project and thereby changing the project's content. We first determine the amount of critical capacity that is optimally allocated to strategic projects with deterministic or stochastic workloads for a single-period problem when the impact of downsizing is known. In order to solve the multi-period problem, we have modeled the behavior of the portfolio in subsequent periods as a single project for which the return on investment can be estimated. Secondly, we investigate how the scarcity of resources affects the (expected) value of projects. The independent (expected) project value is calculated under the assumption of unlimited capacity; in contrast, the dependent (expected) project value incorporates the resource constraints. We find that the dependent project value is equal to the independent project value when the return on investment of the portfolio is sufficiently low. In addition, we determine the relation between the return on investment of the portfolio and the value of a project and conclude that the impact of resource scarcity on the value of a project cannot be fully captured by the common financial practice of adapting the discount rate with the estimated return on investment.Project portfolio management; Downsizing; Stochastic workload;

Value creation, risk management, and real options

The real options approach considers strategic management and decision-making as a process aimed at actively reducing exposition to downside risk and promoting exposition to upside opportunities. It stands at the hinge between pure finance and other areas of decision making under risk such as project evaluation, market entry and exit, organizational restructuring and re-engineering, technology adoption, climate change and biodiversity decisions, etc. The approach underlines a frame of mind and uses methodologies that appeal to a wide array of managers, thus providing a common language. Real options have applications in many areas that are central to modern corporations: market coverage and development, finance, human resources management, technology management, R&D and knowledge management, etc. Thinking in terms of real options represents a major development in strategic but remains relatively unknown in spite of its adoption by firms such as Airbus, GE, Hewlett Packard, Intel, Toshiba and others. Nonetheless, as shown in the academic literature and as argued in some of the quotes below, the contribution of higher level managers to the value of a firm lies in the creation and the exercise of real options. Indeed the value of strategic management itself can be assessed that way. At a more macroeconomic level, the efficiency of financial systems rests primarily on proper risk assessment and management in project evaluation. The real options approach is the crucial analytical tool to fulfill such a need and act as a link between the financial and the real sectors. Lorsqu'on applique une approche options réelles à la gestion, à la gestion stratégique en particulier, c'est que l'on perçoit la prise de décision stratégique comme un processus visant à la fois la réduction active de l'exposition au risque baissier et l'augmentation de l'exposition aux opportunités favorables. L'approche des options réelles se situe entre la finance pure et les autres domaines de la prise de décision en situation risquée tels l'évaluation de projet, l'entrée et la sortie d'un marché, la restructuration et la ré-ingénierie organisationnelle, l'adoption de nouvelles technologies, les décisions sur le changement climatique et la biodiversité, etc.. Elle souligne un état d'esprit et utilise des méthodologies auxquelles souscrivent beaucoup de gestionnaires, offrant ainsi un langage commun. Les options réelles concernent plusieurs domaines primordiaux des entreprises modernes : la couverture et le développement du marché, la finance, la gestion des ressources humaines, la gestion de la technologie, la R&D, la gestion des connaissances, etc.. Cette approche représente un changement important dans la gestion stratégique mais demeure relativement peu connue malgré son adoption par des entreprises telles que Airbus, GE, Hewlett Packard, Intel, Toshiba et autres. Néanmoins, comme l'indique la littérature académique et le soulignent certaines des citations ci-dessous, la contribution des gestionnaires à la valeur de l'entreprise peut se mesurer à l'aune des options qu'ils font surgir et qu'ils gèrent. À un niveau plus macroéconomique, l'efficacité des systèmes financiers repose essentiellement sur une bonne évaluation des risques et de la gestion des projets. Les options réelles constituent l'outil analytique crucial pour cette évaluation et font ainsi le lien entre secteur financier et secteur réel.Real Options, Investments, Uncertainty, Options réelles, Investissements, Incertitude

Determining Utility System Value of Demand Flexibility From Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings

This report focuses on ways current methods and practices that establish the value to electric utility systems of distributed energy resource (DER) investments can be enhanced to determine the value of demand flexibility in grid-interactive efficient buildings that can provide grid services. The report introduces key valuation concepts that are applicable to demand flexibility that these buildings can provide and links to other documents that describe these concepts and their implementation in more detail.The scope of this report is limited to the valuation of economic benefits to the utility system. These are the foundational values on which other benefits (and costs) can be built. Establishing the economic value to the grid of demand flexibility provides the information needed to design programs, market rules, and rates that align the economic interest of utility customers with building owners and occupants. By nature, DERs directly impact customers and provide societal benefits external to the utility system. Jurisdictions can use utility system benefits and costs as the foundation of their economic analysis but align their primary cost-effectiveness metric with all applicable policy objectives, which may include customer and societal (non-utility system) impacts.This report suggests enhancements to current methods and practices that state and local policymakers, public utility commissions, state energy offices, utilities, state utility consumer representatives, and other stakeholders might support. These enhancements can improve the consistency and robustness of economic valuation of demand flexibility for grid services. The report concludes with a discussion of considerations for prioritizing implementation of these improvements

Real Option Valuation of a Portfolio of Oil Projects

Various methodologies exist for valuing companies and their projects. We address the problem of valuing a portfolio of projects within companies that have infrequent, large and volatile cash flows. Examples of this type of company exist in oil exploration and development and we will use this example to illustrate our analysis throughout the thesis. The theoretical interest in this problem lies in modeling the sources of risk in the projects and their different interactions within each project. Initially we look at the advantages of real options analysis and compare this approach with more traditional valuation methods, highlighting strengths and weaknesses ofeach approach in the light ofthe thesis problem. We give the background to the stages in an oil exploration and development project and identify the main common sources of risk, for example commodity prices. We discuss the appropriate representation for oil prices; in short, do oil prices behave more like equities or more like interest rates? The appropriate representation is used to model oil price as a source ofrisk. A real option valuation model based on market uncertainty (in the form of oil price risk) and geological uncertainty (reserve volume uncertainty) is presented and tested for two different oil projects. Finally, a methodology to measure the inter-relationship between oil price and other sources of risk such as interest rates is proposed using copula methods.Imperial Users onl

Optimal Decision-Making under Uncertainty - Application to Power Transmission Investments

Economists define investment as the act of incurring immediate costs with the expectation of future returns. An investment project, as every asset has a value. For successfully investing in and managing these assets is crucial not only recognizing what the value is but also the sources of this value. Most investment decisions share three characteristics in different degrees. First, investments are partially or totally irreversible. Roughly speaking, the initial investment cost is at least partially sunk; i.e. it is impossible to recover all the expenditures if the decision-maker changes his mind. Second, there is uncertainty in the revenues from the investment, and therefore, risk associated with this. Third, all decision-making has some leeway about the timing of the investment. It is possible to defer the decision making to get more information about the future. These three features interact to determine the optimal decisions of investors on a given investment project. Transmission utilities are faced with investment projects, which hold these three characteristics: irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing. In this context, an efficient decision making process is, therefore, based on managing the uncertainties and understanding the relationships between risks and opportunities in order to achieve a well-timed investment execution. Therefore, strategic flexibility for seizing opportunities and cutting losses contingent upon the market evolution is of huge value. Strategic flexibility is a risk management method that is gaining ongoing research attention as it enables properly managing major uncertainties, which are unsolved at the time of making decisions. Hence, valuing added flexibility in transmission investment portfolios, for instance, by investing in power electronic-based controller meanwhile transmission line projects are deferred, is necessary to make optimal network upgrading. Nevertheless, expressing the value of flexibility in economic terms is not a trivial task and requires new, sophisticated valuing tools, since the traditional investment theory has not recognized the important implications of the interaction between the three aforementioned investment features. Any attempt to quantify investment flexibility almost naturally leads to the concept of Real Options (RO). The RO technique provides a well-founded framework –based on the theory of financial options, and consequently, stochastic dynamic programming- to assess strategic investments under uncertainty. In the first RO applications, valuation was normally confined to the investment options that can be easily assimilated to financial options, for which solutions are well-known and readily available. Nevertheless, an investor confront with a diverse set of opportunities. From this point of view, investment projects can be seen as a portfolio of options, where its value is driven by several stochastic variables. The introduction of multiple interacting options into real options models highly increases the problem complexity, making traditional numerical approaches impracticable. However in the recent years, simulation procedures for solving multiple American options have been successfully proposed. One of the most promising approaches is the Least Square Monte Carlo (LSM) method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz in 2001. LSM method is based on stochastic chronological simulation and uses least squares linear regression to determine the optimal stopping time (optimal path) in the decision making process. This chapter lays out a general background about key concepts -uncertainty and risk- and the most usual risk management techniques in transmission investment are provided. Then, the concept of strategic flexibility is introduced in order to set its ability for dealing with the uncertainties involved in the investment problem. In addition, new criteria and advantages of ROV approach compared with classical probabilistic choice are presented, by exposing a LSM-based method for decomposing and evaluating the complex real option problem involved in flexible transmission investments under uncertainties. The proposed methodology is applied in a study case which evaluates an interconnection reinforcement on the European interconnected power system, by showing how the valuation of flexibility is a key task for making efficient and well-timed investments in the transmission network. The impact of two network upgrades on the system-wide welfare is analyzed. These upgrades are the development of a new interconnected line and the installation of a power electronic-based controller. Both upgrades represent measures to strengthen the German-Dutch interconnections due to the fact that these are among the most important corridors within the Central Western European (CWE) region. Hence, an interconnection project, which is currently under study, is compared to flexible investment in order to shed some light on the influence of the strategic flexibility on the optimal decision-making process. The research is focused on assessing the impact of different wind power in-feed scenarios in detail as well as the uncertainty of the demand growth, generation cost evolution and the installed wind capacity on the decision-making process. The presented approach might serve as a basis for a decision-making tool for regulatory agencies in order to quantify the necessity for network upgrades.Fil: Blanco, Gerardo. Universidad Nacional de Asunción; ParaguayFil: Olsina, Fernando Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Energía Eléctrica; Argentin

A Cost-Index Approach to Valuing Investment In "Far Into The Future" Environmental Technology

Governments investing in long-lead technology development programs face considerable uncertainty as to whether the investment eventually will “pay off” for the taxpayer. This paper offers a framework to inform long-lead technology investment. We extend the theory of quality-adjusted cost indices to develop a conceptually rigorous, but data parsimonious, means of estimating consumer benefits from a new technology. We apply this model to a possible future electricity generation technology, space solar power (SSP). The United States, Japan, and other governments have begun investing in SSP but lack the benefit of a relevant economic context for informed decisions. We frame and analyze the economic relationship between SSP and competing electricity generation technologies with respect to direct costs, environmental externalities, and reliability. We also explicitly incorporate uncertainty and consider differences in the resource endowments available to electricity markets by considering four distinct world geographic regions.energy, environment, technological change, cost indices, space technology