Personalization Through the Application of Inverse Bayes to Student Modeling

Personalization, the idea that teaching can be tailored to each students’ needs, has been a goal for the educational enterprise for at least 2,500 years (Regian, Shute, & Shute, 2013, p.2). Recently personalization has picked up speed with the advent of mobile computing, the Internet and increases in computer processing power. These changes have begun to generate more and more information about individual students that could theoretically be used to power personalized education. The following dissertation discusses a novel algorithm for processing this data to generate estimates of individual level attributes, the Inverse Bayes Filter (IBFi). A brief introduction to the use of Bayes Theorem is followed by a theoretical chapter and then two empirical chapters that describe alternately how the model is constructed, and how it performs on real student data. The theoretical chapter presents both the theory behind Inverse Bayes, including subjective probability, and then relates this theory to student performance. The first empirical chapter describes the prediction accuracy of IBFi on two proxies for students’ subjective probability, partial credit and cumulative average. This prediction performance is compared to the prediction accuracy of a modified Bayesian Knowledge Tracing model (KTPC) with IBFi performing reasonably, out-predicting the KTPC model on a per-student basis but not across all predictions. In the second empirical chapter I validate the theory behind the Inverse Bayes Filter through testing whether student certainty (or confidence) improves prediction performance. The inclusion of student certainty is shown to improve the predictive performance of the model relative to models that do not use certainty. This evidence supports the IBFi model and its underlying theory, indicating that students’ judgments about their levels of certainty in their answers contains information that can be successfully identified by the model. A final summary chapter describes the consequences of using this model for education broadly.Human Development and Educatio

Predictive models as early warning systems for student academic performance in introductory programming

Computer programming is fundamental to Computer Science and IT curricula. At the novice level it covers programming concepts that are essential for subsequent advanced programming courses. However, introductory programming courses are among the most challenging courses for novices and high failure and attrition rates continue even as computer science education has seen improvements in pedagogy. Consequently, the quest to identify factors that affect student learning and academic performance in introductory computer programming courses has been a long-standing activity. Specifically, weak novice learners of programming need to be identified and assisted early in the semester in order to alleviate any potential risk of failing or withdrawing from their course. Hence, it is essential to identify at-risk programming students early, in order to plan (early) interventions. The goal of this thesis was to develop a validated, predictive model(s) with suitable predictors of student academic performance in introductory programming courses. The proposed model utilises the Naïve Bayes classification machine learning algorithm to analyse student performance data, based on the principle of parsimony. Furthermore, an additional objective was to propose this validated predictive model as an early warning system (EWS), to predict at-risk students early in the semester and, in turn, to potentially inform instructors (and students) for early interventions. We obtained data from two introductory programming courses in our study to develop and test the predictive models. The models were built with student presage and in progress-data for which instructors may easily collect or access despite the nature of pedagogy of educational settings. In addition, our work analysed the predictability of selected data sources and looked for the combination of predictors, which yields the highest prediction accuracy to predict student academic performance. The prediction accuracies of the models were computed by using confusion matrix data including overall model prediction accuracy, prediction accuracy sensitivity and specificity, balanced accuracy and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) score for generalisation. On average, the models developed with formative assessment tasks, which were partially assisted by the instructor in the classroom, returned higher at-risk prediction accuracies than the models developed with take-home assessment task only as predictors. The unknown data test results of this study showed that it is possible to predict 83% of students that need support as early as Week 3 in a 12-week introductory programming course. The ensemble method-based results suggest that it is possible to improve overall at-risk prediction performance with low false positives and to incorporate this in early warning systems to identify students that need support, in order to provide early intervention before they reach critical stages (at-risk of failing). The proposed model(s) of this study were developed on the basis of the principle of parsimony as well as previous research findings, which accounted for variations in academic settings, such as academic environment, and student demography. The predictive model could potentially provide early warning indicators to facilitate early warning intervention strategies for at-risk students in programming that allow for early interventions. The main contribution of this thesis is a model that may be applied to other programming and non-programming courses, which have both continuous formative and a final exam summative assessment, to predict final student performance early in the semester.Ohjelmointi on informaatioteknologian ja tietojenkäsittelytieteen opinto-ohjelmien olennainen osa. Aloittelijatasolla opetus kattaa jatkokurssien kannalta keskeisiä ohjelmoinnin käsitteitä. Tästä huolimatta ohjelmoinnin peruskurssit ovat eräitä haasteellisimmista kursseista aloittelijoille. Korkea keskeyttämisprosentti ja opiskelijoiden asteittainen pois jättäytyminen ovat vieläkin tunnusomaisia piirteitä näille kursseille, vaikka ohjelmoinnin opetuksen pedagogiikka onkin kehittynyt. Näin ollen vaikuttavia syitä opiskelijoiden heikkoon suoriutumiseen on etsitty jo pitkään. Erityisesti heikot, aloittelevat ohjelmoijat tulisi tunnistaa mahdollisimman pian, jotta heille voitaisiin tarjota tukea ja pienentää opiskelijan riskiä epäonnistua kurssin läpäimisessä ja riskiä jättää kurssi kesken. Heikkojen opiskelijoiden tunnistaminen on tärkeää, jotta voidaan suunnitella aikainen väliintulo. Tämän väitöskirjatyön tarkoituksena oli kehittää todennettu, ennustava malli tai malleja sopivilla ennnustusfunktioilla koskien opiskelijan akateemista suoriutumista ohjelmoinnin peruskursseilla. Kehitetty malli käyttää koneoppivaa naiivia bayesilaista luokittelualgoritmia analysoimaan opiskelijoiden suoriutumisesta kertynyttä aineistoa. Lähestymistapa perustuu yksinkertaisimpien mahdollisten selittävien mallien periaatteeseen. Lisäksi, tavoitteena oli ehdottaa tätä validoitua ennustavaa mallia varhaiseksi varoitusjärjestelmäksi, jolla ennustetaan putoamisvaarassa olevat opiskelijat opintojakson alkuvaiheessa sekä informoidaan ohjaajia (ja opiskelijaa) aikaisen väliintulon tarpeellisuudesta. Keräsimme aineistoa kahdelta ohjelmoinnin peruskurssilta, jonka pohjalta ennustavaa mallia kehitettiin ja testattiin. Mallit on rakennettu opiskelijoiden ennakkotietojen ja kurssin kestäessä kerättyjen suoriutumistietojen perusteella, joita ohjaajat voivat helposti kerätä tai joihin he voivat päästä käsiksi oppilaitoksesta tai muusta ympäristöstä huolimatta. Lisäksi väitöskirjatyö analysoi valittujen datalähteiden ennustettavuutta ja sitä, mitkä mallien muuttujista ja niiden kombinaatioista tuottivat kannaltamme korkeimman ennustetarkkuuden opiskelijoiden akateemisessa suoriutumisessa. Mallien ennustusten tarkkuuksia laskettiin käyttämällä sekaannusmatriisia, josta saadaan laskettua ennusteen tarkkuus, ennusteen spesifisyys, sensitiivisyys, tasapainotettu tarkkuus sekä luokitteluvastekäyriä (receiver operating characteristics (ROC)) ja näiden luokitteluvastepinta-ala (area under curve (AUC)) Mallit, jotka kehitettiin formatiivisilla tehtävillä, ja joissa ohjaaja saattoi osittain auttaa luokkahuonetilanteessa, antoivat keskimäärin tarkemman ennustuksen putoamisvaarassa olevista opiskelijoista kuin mallit, joissa käytettiin kotiin vietäviä tehtäviä ainoina ennusteina. Tuntemattomalla testiaineistolla tehdyt mallinnukset osoittavat, että voimme tunnistaa jo 3. viikon kohdalla 83% niistä opiskelijoista, jotka tarvitsevat lisätukea 12 viikkoa kestävällä ohjelmoinnin kurssilla. Tulosten perusteella vaikuttaisi, että yhdistämällä metodeja voidaan saavuttaa parempi yleinen ennustettavuus putoamisvaarassa olevien opiskelijoiden suhteen pienemmällä määrällä väärin luokiteltuja epätositapauksia. Tulokset viittaavat myös siihen, että on mahdollista sisällyttää yhdistelmämalli varoitusjärjestelmiin, jotta voidaan tunnistaa avuntarpeessa olevia opiskelijoita ja tarjota täten varhaisessa vaiheessa tukea ennen kuin on liian myöhäistä. Tässä tutkimuksessa esitellyt mallit on kehitetty nojautuen yksinkertaisimman selittävän mallin periaatteeseen ja myös aiempiin tutkimustuloksiin, joissa huomioidaan erilaiset akateemiset ympäristöt ja opiskelijoiden tausta. Ennustava malli voi tarjota indikaattoreita, jotka voivat mahdollisesti toimia pohjana väliintulostrategioihin kurssilta putoamisvaarassa olevien opiskelijoiden tukemiseksi. Tämän tutkimuksen keskeisin anti on malli, jolla opiskelijoiden suoriutumista voidaan arvioida muilla ohjelmointia ja muita aihepiirejä käsittelevillä kursseilla, jotka sisältävät sekä jatkuvaa arviointia että loppukokeen. Malli ennustaisi näillä kursseilla lopullisen opiskelijan suoritustason opetusjakson alkuvaiheessa

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence Capabilities to Improve Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity is a fast-evolving discipline that is always in the news over the last decade, as the number of threats rises and cybercriminals constantly endeavor to stay a step ahead of law enforcement. Over the years, although the original motives for carrying out cyberattacks largely remain unchanged, cybercriminals have become increasingly sophisticated with their techniques. Traditional cybersecurity solutions are becoming inadequate at detecting and mitigating emerging cyberattacks. Advances in cryptographic and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques (in particular, machine learning and deep learning) show promise in enabling cybersecurity experts to counter the ever-evolving threat posed by adversaries. Here, we explore AI\u27s potential in improving cybersecurity solutions, by identifying both its strengths and weaknesses. We also discuss future research opportunities associated with the development of AI techniques in the cybersecurity field across a range of application domains

Topic modeling in marketing: recent advances and research opportunities

Using a probabilistic approach for exploring latent patterns in high-dimensional co-occurrence data, topic models offer researchers a flexible and open framework for soft-clustering large data sets. In recent years, there has been a growing interest among marketing scholars and practitioners to adopt topic models in various marketing application domains. However, to this date, there is no comprehensive overview of this rapidly evolving field. By analyzing a set of 61 published papers along with conceptual contributions, we systematically review this highly heterogeneous area of research. In doing so, we characterize extant contributions employing topic models in marketing along the dimensions data structures and retrieval of input data, implementation and extensions of basic topic models, and model performance evaluation. Our findings confirm that there is considerable progress done in various marketing sub-areas. However, there is still scope for promising future research, in particular with respect to integrating multiple, dynamic data sources, including time-varying covariates and the combination of exploratory topic models with powerful predictive marketing models

Biomedical Data Classification with Improvised Deep Learning Architectures

With the rise of very powerful hardware and evolution of deep learning architectures, healthcare data analysis and its applications have been drastically transformed. These transformations mainly aim to aid a healthcare personnel with diagnosis and prognosis of a disease or abnormality at any given point of healthcare routine workflow. For instance, many of the cancer metastases detection depends on pathological tissue procedures and pathologist reviews. The reports of severity classification vary amongst different pathologist, which then leads to different treatment options for a patient. This labor-intensive work can lead to errors or mistreatments resulting in high cost of healthcare. With the help of machine learning and deep learning modules, some of these traditional diagnosis techniques can be improved and aid a doctor in decision making with an unbiased view. Some of such modules can help reduce the cost, shortage of an expertise, and time in identifying the disease. However, there are many other datapoints that are available with medical images, such as omics data, biomarker calculations, patient demographics and history. All these datapoints can enhance disease classification or prediction of progression with the help of machine learning/deep learning modules. However, it is very difficult to find a comprehensive dataset with all different modalities and features in healthcare setting due to privacy regulations. Hence in this thesis, we explore both medical imaging data with clinical datapoints as well as genomics datasets separately for classification tasks using combinational deep learning architectures. We use deep neural networks with 3D volumetric structural magnetic resonance images of Alzheimer Disease dataset for classification of disease. A separate study is implemented to understand classification based on clinical datapoints achieved by machine learning algorithms. For bioinformatics applications, sequence classification task is a crucial step for many metagenomics applications, however, requires a lot of preprocessing that requires sequence assembly or sequence alignment before making use of raw whole genome sequencing data, hence time consuming especially in bacterial taxonomy classification. There are only a few approaches for sequence classification tasks that mainly involve some convolutions and deep neural network. A novel method is developed using an intrinsic nature of recurrent neural networks for 16s rRNA sequence classification which can be adapted to utilize read sequences directly. For this classification task, the accuracy is improved using optimization techniques with a hybrid neural network

Intelligent Systems

This book is dedicated to intelligent systems of broad-spectrum application, such as personal and social biosafety or use of intelligent sensory micro-nanosystems such as "e-nose", "e-tongue" and "e-eye". In addition to that, effective acquiring information, knowledge management and improved knowledge transfer in any media, as well as modeling its information content using meta-and hyper heuristics and semantic reasoning all benefit from the systems covered in this book. Intelligent systems can also be applied in education and generating the intelligent distributed eLearning architecture, as well as in a large number of technical fields, such as industrial design, manufacturing and utilization, e.g., in precision agriculture, cartography, electric power distribution systems, intelligent building management systems, drilling operations etc. Furthermore, decision making using fuzzy logic models, computational recognition of comprehension uncertainty and the joint synthesis of goals and means of intelligent behavior biosystems, as well as diagnostic and human support in the healthcare environment have also been made easier

Current Challenges in Modeling Cellular Metabolism

Mathematical and computational models play an essential role in understanding the cellular metabolism. They are used as platforms to integrate current knowledge on a biological system and to systematically test and predict the effect of manipulations to such systems. The recent advances in genome sequencing techniques have facilitated the reconstruction of genome-scale metabolic networks for a wide variety of organisms from microbes to human cells. These models have been successfully used in multiple biotechnological applications. Despite these advancements, modeling cellular metabolism still presents many challenges. The aim of this Research Topic is not only to expose and consolidate the state-of-the-art in metabolic modeling approaches, but also to push this frontier beyond the current edge through the introduction of innovative solutions. The articles presented in this e-book address some of the main challenges in the field, including the integration of different modeling formalisms, the integration of heterogeneous data sources into metabolic models, explicit representation of other biological processes during phenotype simulation, and standardization efforts in the representation of metabolic models and simulation results