D3.1 Instructional Designs for Real-time Feedback

The main objective of METALOGUE is to produce a multimodal dialogue system that is able to implement an interactive behaviour that seems natural to users and is flexible enough to exploit the full potential of multimodal interaction. The METALOGUE system will be arranged in the context of educational use-case scenarios, i.e. for training active citizens (Youth Parliament) and call centre employees. This deliverable describes the intended real-time feedback and reflection in-action support to support the training. Real-time feedback informs learners how they perform key skills and enables them to monitor their progress and thus reflect in-action. This deliverable examines the theoretical considerations of reflection in-action, what type of data is available and should be used, the timing and type of real-time feedback and, finally, concludes with an instructional design blueprint giving a global outline of a set of tasks with stepwise increasing complexity and the feedback proposed.The underlying research project is partly funded by the METALOGUE project. METALOGUE is a Seventh Framework Programme collaborative project funded by the European Commission, grant agreement number: 611073 (http://www.metalogue.eu)

Advancing the use of geographic information systems, numerical and physical models for the planning of managed aquifer recharge schemes

Global change is a major threat to local groundwater resources. Climate change and population growth are factors that directly or indirectly augment the increasing uptake of groundwater resources. To outbalance the pressure on aquifers, managed aquifer recharge (MAR) schemes are increasingly being implemented. They enable the subsurface storage of surplus water for times of high demand. The complexity of MAR schemes makes their planning and implementation multifaceted and requires a comprehensive assessment of the local hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical conditions. Despite the fact that MAR is a widely used technique, its implementation is not well regulated and comprehensive planning and design guidelines are rare. The use of supporting tools, such as numerical and physical models or geographic information systems (GIS), is rising for MAR planning but their scope and requirements for application are rarely reflected in the available MAR guidelines. To depict the application potential and the advantages and disadvantages of the tools for surface infiltration MAR planning, this thesis comprises reviews on the past use of the tools as well as suggestions to improve their applicability for MAR planning. GIS is not mentioned by most MAR guidelines as a planning tool even though it is increasingly being used for MAR mapping. Through a review of GIS-based MAR suitability studies, this thesis shows that the MAR mapping process could be standardized by using the often-applied approach of constraint mapping, suitability mapping by using pairwise comparison for weight assignment and weighted linear combination as a decision rule, and a subsequent sensitivity analysis. Standardizing the methodology would increase the reliability and comparability of MAR maps due to the common methodological approach. Thus, the proposed standard methodology was incorporated into a web GIS that simplifies MAR mapping through a pre-defined workflow. Numerical models are widely used for the assessment of MAR schemes and are included into some MAR planning guidelines. However, only a few studies were found that utilized vadose zone models for the planning and design of MAR schemes. In this thesis, a review and a subsequent case study highlight that numerical modelling has many assets, such as monitoring network design or infiltration scenario planning, that make its utilization during the MAR planning phase worthwhile. Consequently, this study advocates the use of vadose zone models for MAR planning by showing their potential areas of application as well as their uncertainties that need to be regarded carefully during modelling. Physical models used for MAR planning are typically field or pilot sites, as some MAR legislation requests pilot sites as part of the preliminary assessment. Laboratory experiments are used less often and are mostly restricted to the analysis of very specific issues, such as clogging. This thesis takes on the issue of scaling laboratory results to the field scale by comparing results from three physical models of different scales and dimensionality. The results indicate that preferential flow paths, air entrapment and boundary influence limit the quantitative validity of laboratory experiments. The use of 3D tanks instead of 1D soil columns and the application of statistical indicators are means to increase the representativeness of laboratory measurements. Nevertheless, physical models have the potential to improve MAR planning in terms of detailed process assessment, scenario and sensitivity analyses. All tools discussed in this thesis have their merits for MAR scheme planning and should be advocated better in MAR guidelines by depicting their application potential, advantages and disadvantages. The information accumulated in this thesis is a step towards an advanced use of supporting tools for the planning and design of MAR schemes.:1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Structure of the thesis 2 Status quo of the planning process of MAR schemes 2.1 Guidance documents on general MAR planning 2.2 Application of GIS, numerical and physical models for MAR planning 2.3 Planning of surface infiltration schemes 3 Using GIS for the planning of MAR schemes 3.1 Implications from GIS-MCDA studies for MAR mapping 3.2 Development of web tools for MAR suitability mapping 4 Using numerical models for the planning of MAR schemes 4.1 Review on the use of numerical models for the design and optimization of MAR schemes 4.2 Planning a small-scale MAR scheme through vadose zone modelling 5 Using physical models for the planning of MAR schemes 5.1 Design of the experimental study 5.2 Comparison of three different physical models for MAR planning 6 Discussion and research perspectives 7 Bibliography 8 AppendixDer globale Wandel stellt eine große Bedrohung für die lokalen Grundwasserressourcen dar. Klimawandel und Bevölkerungswachstum sind Faktoren, die, direkt oder indirekt, die zunehmende Nutzung von Grundwasserressourcen verstärken. Um diesen Druck auf die Grundwasserleiter auszugleichen, werden verstärkt Maßnahmen zur gezielten Grundwasserneubildung (managed aquifer recharge = MAR) durchgeführt. Dies ermöglicht die unterirdische Speicherung von überschüssigem Wasser für Zeiten hohen Bedarfs. Die Komplexität von MAR-Anlagen macht ihre Planung und Umsetzung kompliziert und erfordert eine umfassende Bewertung der lokalen hydrogeologischen und hydrogeochemischen Bedingungen. Trotz der weltweiten Implementierung von MAR ist dessen Planung wenig reguliert. Umfassende Planungs- und Gestaltungsrichtlinien sind rar. Der Einsatz unterstützender Werkzeuge, wie numerischer und physikalischer Modelle oder Geoinformationssysteme (GIS), nimmt bei der MAR-Planung zu, aber ihre Einsatzmöglichkeiten und ihre Anforderungen an die Anwendung spiegeln sich selten in den verfügbaren MAR-Richtlinien wider. Um das Anwendungspotential und die Vor- und Nachteile der Werkzeuge für die MAR-Planung darzustellen, wurden für diese Arbeit Recherchen über den bisherigen Einsatz der Werkzeuge durchgeführt. Zusätzlich wurden Vorschläge zur Erhöhung ihrer Anwendbarkeit für die MAR Planung gemacht. Der Schwerpunkt lag dabei auf Oberflächeninfiltrationsverfahren. GIS wird in keiner MAR-Richtlinie als Planungsinstrument erwähnt, obwohl es zunehmend für die MAR-Kartierung eingesetzt wird. Eine Recherche über GIS-basierte MAR-Eignungsstudien zeigte, dass der MAR-Kartierungsprozess standardisiert werden kann mittels des oft genutzten Ansatzes: initiales Ausschneiden von Gebieten, welche Restriktionen unterliegen, dem folgend die Eignungskartierung mittels Paarvergleich für die Wichtung der GIS-Karten und der gewichteten Linearkombination als Entscheidungsregel, sowie eine abschließende Sensitivitätsanalyse. Die Standardisierung der Methodik könnte die Zuverlässigkeit und Vergleichbarkeit von MAR-Karten aufgrund des gemeinsamen methodischen Ansatzes erhöhen. Daher wurde die standardisierte Methodik in ein Web-GIS integriert, das über einen definierten Workflow die MAR-Kartierung vereinfacht. Numerische Modelle werden häufig für die Beurteilung von MAR-Systemen verwendet und sind in einigen MAR-Planungsrichtlinien ausgewiesen. Es wurden jedoch nur wenige Studien gefunden, die die Modelle der ungesättigten Zone für die Planung und Gestaltung von MAR Standorten verwendeten. Die in dieser Arbeit durchgeführte Literaturrecherche und eine darauf aufbauende Fallstudie zeigen, dass die numerische Modellierung viele Vorteile bietet, wie z. B. beim Design eines Monitoring-Netzwerkes oder bei der Planung von Infiltrationsszenarien. Physikalische Modelle, die für die MAR-Planung verwendet werden, sind meist Feld- oder Pilotversuche, da einige MAR-Gesetzgebungen Pilotstandorte im Rahmen der Vorabbewertung verlangen. Laborexperimente werden seltener eingesetzt und beschränken sich meist auf die Analyse sehr spezifischer Fragestellungen, wie z.B. der Kolmatierung. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Skalierbarkeit von Laborergebnissen auf die Feldskale, indem sie Ergebnisse aus drei physikalischen Modellen verschiedener Maßstäbe und Dimensionen vergleicht. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Makroporen, Lufteinschlüsse und der Einfluss der Randbedingungen die quantitative Aussagekraft von Laborversuchen einschränken. Der Einsatz von 3D-Tanks anstelle von 1D-Bodensäulen oder von statistischen Indikatoren ist ein Mittel zur Erhöhung der Repräsentativität von Labormessungen. Nichtsdestotrotz hat die Anwendung physikalischerModelle das Potenzial, die MAR-Planung in Bezug auf detaillierte Prozessbewertung, Szenarien und Sensitivitätsanalysen zu unterstützen. Alle beschriebenen Instrumente haben ihre Vorzüge bei der Bewertung von MAR-Anlagen und sollten in MAR-Richtlinien detaillierter berücksichtigt werden, indem ihr Anwendungspotenzial, ihre Vor- und ihre Nachteile dargestellt werden. Die für diese Arbeit zusammengestellten Informationen sind ein Schritt zur Förderung der beschriebenen Planungsinstrumente für die Planung und Gestaltung von MAR-Anlagen.:1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Structure of the thesis 2 Status quo of the planning process of MAR schemes 2.1 Guidance documents on general MAR planning 2.2 Application of GIS, numerical and physical models for MAR planning 2.3 Planning of surface infiltration schemes 3 Using GIS for the planning of MAR schemes 3.1 Implications from GIS-MCDA studies for MAR mapping 3.2 Development of web tools for MAR suitability mapping 4 Using numerical models for the planning of MAR schemes 4.1 Review on the use of numerical models for the design and optimization of MAR schemes 4.2 Planning a small-scale MAR scheme through vadose zone modelling 5 Using physical models for the planning of MAR schemes 5.1 Design of the experimental study 5.2 Comparison of three different physical models for MAR planning 6 Discussion and research perspectives 7 Bibliography 8 Appendi

Risk analysis and contract management for Public Private Partnership projects in Egypt

In the light of the current political and economic conditions in Egypt, Public Private Partnership projects appear as an effective solution in order to help the government in enhancing its infrastructure, utilities and services using the technical skills and capabilities of the private partner. Although Public Private Partnerships are used all over the world, they can be of particular importance in developing countries which seek a quick and effective in improving its projects. Accordingly, Public Private Partnerships started to be used in Egypt and there are several projects under study for future implementation. The two key success factors for PPP projects are a proper risk allocation and a suitable contract so that the risks are adequately covered and are properly assigned to the party who is the best at managing them. In this research, the top 59 risk factors that affect PPP projects are identified from the Literature Review and are grouped into several critical risk groups and included in a questionnaire which is distributed among a number of experts (25 experts) who worked internationally and in the Egyptian Market. The results of the survey showed that the top 26 risks are from the following groups: Financial and Macroeconomic risk group, Commercial risk group, Legal risk group, Political risk group, Regulatory risk group, Government maturity risk group, Technical risk group, Production risk group, and Unforeseen risk group. An attempt for mapping the identified risks and the risk allocation identified in the survey is done to contract clauses of two PPP projects contracts where the risk allocation is defined clearly in the clause (public private or both). In some cases, the risk allocation according to the survey results was perfectly conforming to the risk allocation according to the real case contracts such as in the case of the Performance Security risk, the Permits risk, the Unforeseen Geotechnical conditions risk and the Latent Defect risk. In other cases, the risk allocation according to the survey results was not conforming to the risk allocation according to the real case contracts such as in the case of Nationalization/expropriation risk and the Government Corruption risk. In addition, a prototype for Risk Decision Support System for the top ranked risks in the survey was developed using Crystal Ball software in order to determine the overall severity and the overall contingency percentage of the project. Finally the top risks are compared to the critical risks obtained from the previous studies in China, India and Singapore and the top risks identified were conforming to a great extent

The Role of Community-Mindedness in the Self-Regulation of Drug Cultures

This book analyzes heroin users and the drug subculture on the Shetland Islands, an area known for its geographical remoteness, rural character and relative wealth. It fills the scientific gap created by the conventional research in heroin research, which is usually conducted in urban areas and relies on treatment and prison populations. Based on qualitative, in-depth interviews with twenty-four heroin users, this book depicts and analyzes the nature and historical development of the local heroin scene. It illustrates the features and internal structures of the subculture, and it examines the manner in which both are influenced by the location-specific geographical, cultural and socio-economic conditions. It thus reveals complex causal associations that are hard to recognize in urban environments. Complete with a list of references used and recommendations for future research, this book is a vital tool for progressive and pragmatic approaches to policy, intervention and research in the field of illicit drug use

The Role of Community-Mindedness in the Self-Regulation of Drug Cultures

This book analyzes heroin users and the drug subculture on the Shetland Islands, an area known for its geographical remoteness, rural character and relative wealth. It fills the scientific gap created by the conventional research in heroin research, which is usually conducted in urban areas and relies on treatment and prison populations. Based on qualitative, in-depth interviews with twenty-four heroin users, this book depicts and analyzes the nature and historical development of the local heroin scene. It illustrates the features and internal structures of the subculture, and it examines the manner in which both are influenced by the location-specific geographical, cultural and socio-economic conditions. It thus reveals complex causal associations that are hard to recognize in urban environments. Complete with a list of references used and recommendations for future research, this book is a vital tool for progressive and pragmatic approaches to policy, intervention and research in the field of illicit drug use

Proceedings of the 5th international conference on disability, virtual reality and associated technologies (ICDVRAT 2004)

The proceedings of the conferenc

Analysis of construction and stakeholder risks for Public Private Partnership projects in developing countries : a comparative analysis using Artificial Neural Networks to determine the effect of poor stakeholder management and construction risks on the project’s schedule (PPP vs. traditional projects)

There has been a continuously increasing demand for public services and infrastructure all over the world especially in developing countries in order to respond to the rapidly growing population and the targeted economic growth in these countries. Accordingly resorting to the PPP scheme is a way for the governmental authorities to achieve the objectives of better services to the end user in energy, educational, water and wastewater, and transportation projects with the help and expertise of the private sector. While PPP was proven to be successful in several instances, there are also several failure stories where the PPP scheme was used. In order to avoid such problems and due to the complex nature of PPP projects and their extended life span, an adequate risk management technique should be performed for PPP projects to ensure their success. One of the crucial steps linked to risk management is stakeholder management. This research primarily aims to develop a mathematical model that analyzes the expected total effect of risks associated with poor stakeholder management during the construction phase on PPP projects’ schedule based on historical details of previous PPP projects in a comparative study with traditional construction projects using Artificial Neural Networks. In order to develop “the risks checklist” that will be inserted in the model, an extensive literature review of 30 sources was thoroughly studied in order to develop the list of the risks affecting PPP projects. To properly develop a comprehensive list of risks, the journal papers, research and publications that were studied covered the time span between 1998 until 2018. Furthermore, the literature review performed for the sake of developing the risk factors was covering different countries such as: the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Scotland, China, Australia, India, Indonesia, Singapore, Iran, Malaysia, Thailand, Portugal and South Africa. These countries were chosen to encompass different levels of PPP experience. Accordingly, a comprehensive list of 118 risks was developed. In addition to the ranking and classification of risks into various risks categories, each one of the identified risks was mapped to its corresponding country. The purpose of this step is to determine the critical risks that the literature identified for each country in order to establish a cross-country comparison. From this mapping, it is found that most of the risks affecting PPP projects around the world are political, legal, stakeholder and construction risks. The inadequate PPP experience, lack of support from government, force majeure and permits delays are affecting PPP projects in all the countries included in this research. It is also noticed that risks affecting developed countries such as Hong Kong, China and UK are of similar nature to the risks affecting developing countries. The model was developed using Neural Designer ® Software. This software was used in particular as it is a powerful user-friendly interface able to make complex operations and build predictive models in an intuitive way with a graphical user interface.To build the model, the input variables were the 44 risk factors related to consttruction and stakehoders while the schedule Growth (or total project delay) was used as the target variable.The dataset contains 12 instances (or 12 projects) and was divided into three sets:a.Training comprising 66.7% of the projects (8 traditional projects)b.Selection (testing) comprising 16.7% of the projects (2 traditional projects)c.Validation comprising 16.7 of the projects (2 PPP projects)Once all the dataset information has been set, some analytics were performed in order to check the quality of the data. Model performance was detected using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Normalized Squared Error (NSE) over the training, testing and validation datasets.Ten trials of the ANN model were performed using different training and testing strategies in order to be able choose the optimum model that has the best learning capabilities and delivering the least possible errors during the training and testing.Based on the different trials output, it is concluded that Model 4 delivers the smallest range of error (MSE and NSE) for training and testing. The architecture of this particular model is: 18 input nodes, three hidden neurons on two layers and one output. It was trained using a logistic function. It is noticed that having the hidden perceptron on two layers improved the model’s performance significantly and decreased errors for both training and testing. After performing training and testing of all models, and in all trials, it was noticed that the error decreased considerably by decreasing the number of input nodes.In order to validate the model’s performance, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the cause and effect relationship between inputs and outputs of the ANN model. The most significant risk factor is “the lack of coordination” as it is the most important contributor to the model´s ability to predict total project´s delay. On the other hand, the least significant risk factor in this case is the “constructability” and the “protection of geological and historical objects”. Comparing the results of this sensitivity analysis to the risk mapping to different countries, it is noticed that the lack of coordination risk is not present in other countries such as Australia, Hong Kong and the UK. Based on the model´s outcomes, correlations between all input and target variables ranked in descending order based on the best model out of the ten models were calculated. The maximum correlation (0.803336) is yield between the input variable “Delay in resolving contractual dispute” and the target variable “Schedule growth”. 37 risk factors out of the 44 have a high correlation factor (more than 0.1) with the total project´s delay. Furthermore, a comparison was established between this new ranking and the ranking previously obtained from the literature review based on content analysis and on the ranking obtained from the sensitivity analysis. The following observations were drawn:•Based on the literature review, the material availability risk occupies the first position in terms of the most critical risks. This ranking is similar to a great extent to its ranking based on the correlation calculations according to which this risk occupies the third position. •The “Delay in resolving contractual dispute” occupies the highest rank in terms of correlation with the total project delay based on the ANN model’s outputs. This ranking is also similar to the results of the sensitivity analysis where it occupies the second position in terms of the risks having the highest contribution to the total project’s delay. On the other hand, the same risk is ranked 31st based on the results of the analysis of the literature review. Since the ANN model was based on real case projects, it makes more sense that this particular risk can be of detrimental effect to the project’s completion time. The same goes for the risk “Inadequate negotiation period prior to initiation”. This risk, based on the model’s deliverables, is ranking 11th and 17th in sensitivity analysis and correlation to the total project’s delay while, based on the literature review, is ranking 42nd out of 44. •The “Public opposition” risk is one of the most severe risks facing PPP projects based on the literature review as it occupies the second position based on the various sources taken into account. Nevertheless, based on the sensitivity analysis and on the correlation analysis, this risk occupies the 35th and 44th positions respectively. This difference in ranking can be caused by the relatively small sample size of PPP projects studied in this research. The dataset studied was not encompassing such risk as it was not faced in the projects that were analyzed. However, this does not mean that this risk is not significant especially for PPP projects. •For other risks such as “Constructability”, “staff crisis” and “subjective evaluation”, the literature review and the model deliverables produced very close results. •Based on the literature review, the material availability risk occupies the first position in terms of the most critical risks. This ranking is similar to a great extent to its ranking based on the correlation calculations according to which this risk occupies the third position. On the other hand, the ranking of this same risk is 31 based on the sensitivity analysis in terms of its effect and contribution to the total project delay. The “Delay in resolving contractual dispute” occupies the highest rank in terms of correlation with the total project delay based on the ANN model’s outputs. This ranking is also similar to the results of the sensitivity analysis where it occupies the second position in terms of the risks having the highest contribution to the total project’s delay. The “Public opposition” risk is one of the most severe risks facing PPP projects based on the literature review as it occupies the second position based on the various sources taken into account. Nevertheless, based on the sensitivity analysis and on the correlation analysis, this risk occupies the 35th and 44th positions respectively. A future destination for this study is to provide, in addition to the ANN model determining the contribution of the risks to the overall project delay, a tool assisting the public sector to choose and determine whether the PPP scheme in a particular project is the optimum scheme to use or not

The changing face of NEPAD and the challenges of facilitating sub-regional economic integration on the ECOWAS platform

This research is intended to evaluate and study the challenges confronting NEPAD’s quest for sub regional economic integration in the ECOWAS domain. Political and economic integration has been part of African strategy to overcome fragmentation, marginalization and improve the continent’s position in the global political economy. Indeed, Africa needs integration more than any other continent or region in the world and this is why, it has had a fair share of regional integration arrangements all through her history. Unfortunately, these efforts have not paid off in the dimension of desired expectations. When NEPAD was established, it was given regional integration responsibilities, even though it was not a regional organization. It was mandated to drive regional integration in Africa by supporting the regional integration efforts of the regional economic institutions in Africa. After 10 years of existence, African leaders dissolved NEPAD and in its place, instituted the NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency (NPCA). This move was orchestrated by the seemingly slow progress made by NEPAD in this direction. NEPAD and ECOWAS has been working together to promote regional integration, but like in most parts of Africa, the challenges has been seemingly intractable. The study is anchored around the principles of integration as presented by the neo-functionalists theorists. Hence, the research attempted to provide an explanation of the performance and non-performance of NEPAD as a regional integration tool, within the confines of the theory. The findings show that while, there has been some level of success in this venture as evidenced by the projects that are on-going in the sub region, the fact remains that NEPAD did not deliver or actually delivered below expectations. However, this situation is reversible as the study submitted that, there is a future for regional integration in West Africa, Africa and the new NPCA, if the African Union pulls the right levers.Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, 201