Why polls fail to predict elections

In the past decade we have witnessed the failure of traditional polls in predicting presidential election outcomes across the world. To understand the reasons behind these failures we analyze the raw data of a trusted pollster which failed to predict, along with the rest of the pollsters, the surprising 2019 presidential election in Argentina which has led to a major market collapse in that country. Analysis of the raw and re-weighted data from longitudinal surveys performed before and after the elections reveals clear biases (beyond well-known low-response rates) related to mis-representation of the population and, most importantly, to social-desirability biases, i.e., the tendency of respondents to hide their intention to vote for controversial candidates. We then propose a longitudinal opinion tracking method based on big-data analytics from social media, machine learning, and network theory that overcomes the limits of traditional polls. The model achieves accurate results in the 2019 Argentina elections predicting the overwhelming victory of the candidate Alberto Fern\'andez over the president Mauricio Macri; a result that none of the traditional pollsters in the country was able to predict. Beyond predicting political elections, the framework we propose is more general and can be used to discover trends in society; for instance, what people think about economics, education or climate change.Comment: 47 pages, 10 tables, 15 figure

A large-scale sentiment analysis using political tweets

Twitter has become a key element of political discourse in candidates’ campaigns. The political polarization on Twitter is vital to politicians as it is a popular public medium to analyze and predict public opinion concerning political events. The analysis of the sentiment of political tweet contents mainly depends on the quality of sentiment lexicons. Therefore, it is crucial to create sentiment lexicons of the highest quality. In the proposed system, the domain-specific of the political lexicon is constructed by using the supervised approach to extract extreme political opinions words, and features in tweets. Political multi-class sentiment analysis (PMSA) system on the big data platform is developed to predict the inclination of tweets to infer the results of the elections by conducting the analysis on different political datasets: including the Trump election dataset and the BBC News politics. The comparative analysis is the experimental results which are better political text classification by using the three different models (multinomial naïve Bayes (MNB), decision tree (DT), linear support vector classification (SVC)). In the comparison of three different models, linear SVC has the better performance than the other two techniques. The analytical evaluation results show that the proposed system can be performed with 98% accuracy in linear SVC

No echo in the chambers of political interactions on Reddit

Echo chambers in online social networks, whereby users’ beliefs are reinforced by interactions with like-minded peers and insulation from others’ points of view, have been decried as a cause of political polarization. Here, we investigate their role in the debate around the 2016 US elections on Reddit, a fundamental platform for the success of Donald Trump. We identify Trump vs Clinton supporters and reconstruct their political interaction network. We observe a preference for cross-cutting political interactions between the two communities rather than within-group interactions, thus contradicting the echo chamber narrative. Furthermore, these interactions are asymmetrical: Clinton supporters are particularly eager to answer comments by Trump supporters. Beside asymmetric heterophily, users show assortative behavior for activity, and disassortative, asymmetric behavior for popularity. Our findings are tested against a null model of random interactions, by using two different approaches: a network rewiring which preserves the activity of nodes, and a logit regression which takes into account possible confounding factors. Finally, we explore possible socio-demographic implications. Users show a tendency for geographical homophily and a small positive correlation between cross-interactions and voter abstention. Our findings shed light on public opinion formation on social media, calling for a better understanding of the social dynamics at play in this context.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

How Polarized Have We Become? A Multimodal Classification of Trump Followers and Clinton Followers

Polarization in American politics has been extensively documented and analyzed for decades, and the phenomenon became all the more apparent during the 2016 presidential election, where Trump and Clinton depicted two radically different pictures of America. Inspired by this gaping polarization and the extensive utilization of Twitter during the 2016 presidential campaign, in this paper we take the first step in measuring polarization in social media and we attempt to predict individuals' Twitter following behavior through analyzing ones' everyday tweets, profile images and posted pictures. As such, we treat polarization as a classification problem and study to what extent Trump followers and Clinton followers on Twitter can be distinguished, which in turn serves as a metric of polarization in general. We apply LSTM to processing tweet features and we extract visual features using the VGG neural network. Integrating these two sets of features boosts the overall performance. We are able to achieve an accuracy of 69%, suggesting that the high degree of polarization recorded in the literature has started to manifest itself in social media as well.Comment: 16 pages, SocInfo 2017, 9th International Conference on Social Informatic

Trump vs. Hillary: What went Viral during the 2016 US Presidential Election

In this paper, we present quantitative and qualitative analysis of the top retweeted tweets (viral tweets) pertaining to the US presidential elections from September 1, 2016 to Election Day on November 8, 2016. For everyday, we tagged the top 50 most retweeted tweets as supporting or attacking either candidate or as neutral/irrelevant. Then we analyzed the tweets in each class for: general trends and statistics; the most frequently used hashtags, terms, and locations; the most retweeted accounts and tweets; and the most shared news and links. In all we analyzed the 3,450 most viral tweets that grabbed the most attention during the US election and were retweeted in total 26.3 million times accounting over 40% of the total tweet volume pertaining to the US election in the aforementioned period. Our analysis of the tweets highlights some of the differences between the social media strategies of both candidates, the penetration of their messages, and the potential effect of attacks on bothComment: Paper to appear in Springer SocInfo 201